Let's Talk Lindstrom, The Newest Astro
by David Coleman on Dec 9, 2009 6:29 PM CST
in Hot Stove
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PrintOkay, I know you've heard about the trade that sent Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for right-handed starter Robert Bono, shortstop Luis Bryan and a player to be named later. It's not exactly the deal you were looking for after Houston lost both Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins in the past three days. Both of those guys are considerable upgrades over Lindstrom. Let me try and make you feel a little better about this trade.
For starters, let's look at his contract. Lindstrom will be under club control for another three seasons. Granted, those are three seasons of arbitration, but they shouldn't have to spend more than 15 million at the most over those three seasons. He'll probably get 2 million in arbitration for next year.
If anything, this makes Lindstrom more attractive than anyone else on the trade market. Who else were the Astros going to get for three years at controlled money? None of the free agents were going to sign for that little over that many years, nor would the Astros want to commit to any of them for that long.
Now, there's the little problem of Lindstrom's performance. He wasn't very good last season. At all. There is a great breakdown of Lindstrom's season performance here. Yes, he was unlucky, but he also didn't strand enough runners. His performance suggests he'll be a good closer, but probably not great. Over a full season, his Bill James projections show him with 26 saves, three losses and a 44/25 K/BB ratio. Not the best projection in the world, but it's workable.
What about this possibility? Chai-jen Lo starts the season as a late-inning reliever, pairing with Fulchino until he's used to pitching in high level situations in the majors. Then, if Lindstrom is struggling, they slot Lo into the closer's role and move Lindstrom into the eighth inning. Both Arias and Fulchino are also possibilities here, but Lo probably has the biggest upside of the three.
The other thing to consider is which prospects the Astros gave up to get Lindstrom:
Robert Bono, RHP — Bono is a 20-year old who was drafted out of high school as a catcher. He converted to pitching and has had a nice little career to this point. He's a nice prospect but isn't exciting. He does seem to have excellent control, but there is no evidence he's a hard thrower or can strike out enough people to be successful at higher levels. Remember, the South Atlantic League favored pitchers more than a little last season. Out of the five starters at Lexington (Lyles, Seaton, Dydalewicz, Greenwalt, Bono), he probably had the fourth-best upside. Plus, the Astros like righty David Duncan, who will probably slot into Bono's rotation spot at Corpus Christi.
Luis Bryan, SS — The 19-year old middle infielder made quite a few of Farmstros weekly best lists last season. He has one glaring hole in that he doesn't walk, at all. In 283 career plate appearances, Bryan walked 11 times and none last season with the GCL Astros. He is exactly the kind of player the Astros should be trading away for a guy like Lindstrom.
I completely agree with Baseball America's Ben Badler that neither of these guys could have been in the Astros Top 30 prospects next season. Since the PTBNL is actually the Astros top selection in the Rule V draft, this is a very easy trade to make and probably one of the reasons it came together so quickly.
There, did it work? Do you feel a little better about this deal? Well, good, that's what The Crawfish Boxes is here for. Just know that I don't like this any more than you do (especially since Wade apparently wants to trade for ANOTHER closer). I'm just putting on a brave face and soldiering on like a good fan. How about we pick out Lindstrom's entrance music? Wouldn't that be fun?
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Yeah, I was up on this deal from the beginning
He’s inexpensive and has lightning stuff, and we have a good pitching coach now in Arnsberg. In fact, I would go so far as to say he’s the perfect closer acquisition given our situation, as long as the Astros don’t get stupid and now go spend serious money on ANOTHER late inning reliever. (Leave it here, Eddie. Seriously.)
As I mentioned in the other thread, I’m a little upset that we gave up our rule 5 pick. I think we could have gotten a good late inning reliever, starting pitcher, or infielder there, of almost equivalent value to Lindstrom. But at the same time, I don’t feel like we’ve given up anything we’re going to miss in Bono and Bryan. So I’d say it comes out to a pretty fair trade, and I love that we still have money left for a third baseman.
If Ed is smart. Ed, the bullpen is fine. Please, Ed, no more relievers.
The only thing I can figure is that the Astros read the feelings of the seven teams in front of them in the Rule V draft and figured there wouldn’t be anyone there that could help them. Not ideal, but maybe Bobby Heck can swoop in and find another gem (Locke) in the second round.
by David Coleman on Dec 9, 2009 6:45 PM CST up reply actions
I suspect that Lindstrom took the possible Rule 5 pick slot on the 40 man roster. The Astros are in a tight position on 40 man roster space. The fact that Rule 5 picks have to stay on the 25 man roster all season means that Rule 5 picks have fairly low percentage odds of staying with the team. That’s why it doesn’t bother me too much. While there are some interesting candidates in the Rule 5 pool, it’s hard to determine whether they can really make the team.
By the way, I looked over BBTF’s Rule 5 thread. Koby Clemens figures prominently as candidate based on comments/lists. Rule 5 draft occurs tomorrow; so we will know for sure if Clemens and Locke make it through the draft as Astros.
There are two more open slots, aren't there?
Granted, at least one of those may be filled with a third baseman (I certainly hope so!), but that still leaves one more.
There are outfield bench positions, and they will require one or more slots if Wade intends to sign a free agent, as opposed to using minor league players currently on the 40 man. Wade apparently is dead set on looking for another late inning relief pitcher. Looking at it from his perspective, I doubt that he had more than one slot reserved for the Rule 5 draft.
I count three available slots after the Matt Lindstrom signing. Could Wade be counting on Jason Bourgeois and (maybe) one of Bogusevic and Ramirez for backup outfield? Keppinger, Maysonet, and Blum certainly have the backup infield slots covered.
If you assume Wade wants to sign another reliever and another backup outfielder (which, by the way, could be taken in the rule 5) and a third baseman, I suppose you’re right. Don’t know if we should make that assumption, though.
I am guessing that the young OFers compete for one slot (CF), and Wade hits the market for a journeyman outfielder for the corner positions. This is surmise on my part, but I get that feeling based on some comments Wade has made about saving some money to sign a bench player. He has also mentioned that the Astros may give some young players a shot at competing for reserve positions. Wade (or Bennett, can’t remember which) has also said that Bogusevic needs another year in AAA because of his lack of experience. I think that Wade will want one of the reserve outfielders to be LH, and if Bogusevic is set for AAA, that would mean Wade is likely to sign an LH outfielder from the market. If Erstad brings takes a pay cut, I could see Wade signing him again. (Not that I like the idea,)
The other thing about Clemens and Locke is they are both eligible for the Triple-A portion of the Rule V, since neither made it that far in 2009. I’d see a team definitely taking one of them and stashing them at that level for a year, but not so much on a big league roster.
by David Coleman on Dec 9, 2009 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
Minor league teams have reserved rosters that are kind of like a 40 man roster that protects them from the minor league phase of the ruleV. Although i have no idea how to view these rosters to see if locke or clemons is on either one, i’m sure he’d be on the AAA roster since he will probably be in RR next year.
I didn’t see your link to the article on Lindstrom’s season. If it’s the Baseball Digest article, I saw it at spikesnstars, but you may want to put the link in place.
I’m under the impression that the Astros don’t believe Lo is ready for the big leagues. I haven’t seen him enough to know, myself…but I keep hearing how the Astros think his FB command and breaking stuff needs more work.
I’m OK with this move. Obviously, some risk involved with Lindstrom, but maybe the lower salary and future team control is worth it. I’m not overly bothered by the players traded away. And as OremLK said, this is the kind of pitcher whom is likely to benefit from Arnsberg’s advice. I think the $2 M salary is high for a player like Lindstrom in 1st year arbitration; I would expect more like $1 – 1.5 M salary. That should make more money available for other holes. As for the need to sign another late inning reliever—I have to question that.
Thanks for the heads-up. This article has been a work in progress. I’ve changed it at least five times since it published. This Winter Meeting thing has got me pretty scattered.
by David Coleman on Dec 9, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions
One more thing to note about Lindstrom
He gave up seven(!) earned runs in two outs against the Phillies early in the year. That, plus a few four-run outings where he was arguably kept in the game too long, raised his ERA above what it would otherwise have been. Also, he gave up five earned runs in 1.2 innings in the two games immediately prior to his DL stint.
I wouldn't use his 2009 numbers
His injury started in The WBC before the season even started, so it is very likely he played through a lot of pain until he finally hit the DL during the season.
Not too shabby
Not my top pick to pitch in the late innings but the price was right. If he can get back to 2007/2008 this will be a steal. Pretty low risk/high reward trade imo.
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