Astros Hot Stove Noise 12/07: Valverde might be back

by Stephen Higdon on Dec 7, 2009 11:17 AM CST in Hot Stove

So I slept in this morning just for my mental and physical health. Not the greatest idea on the first Monday of the Winter Meetings. As I scrolled through all 107 and tweets on my baseball list on my phone, I realized why this hot stove will be better than any in years past: Twitter. When Rosenthal, Olney, and anyone else with their ears open can instantly inform the masses about a whispered rumor, the hot stove gets that much hotter.

But I digress.

Ken Rosenthal let the world know, at 1:15 AM, that Jose Valverde could be accepting arbitration. Before a panic sets in, Rosenthal never uses a word stronger than could in the discussion. So it could be a simple as Valverde has the option of taking arbtration from the Astros, Rosenthal can post that and make me Astros fans panic.

I'm probably trying to neuter the rumor so much because it would be a huge blow to this team if Valverde does take the arbitration. I keep reading figures like $10 million for his award, but I imagine it'd be closer to $8-9 million. Eitherway, that'd be an absurd amount of money to allocate to a guy whose only function is to pitch the final inning of a game in which the team would be winning by less than three runs.

Rosenthal's evidence is just the dynamics of the closer's market in general this year. Perusing the 2011 Free Agent list, Valverde would be the closer. So maybe there's some teeth to this rumor after all, even though there was no real attempt to tie this to a source.

Here's to hoping someone steps in and offers Valverde the multi-year deal he's seeking. As much as I've come to not distrust Ed Wade, I don't trust him trying to leverage the best deal for Valverde at the 2010 trade deadline. I'd rather us just get the draft picks and put them Bobby Heck's capable hands.

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To some degree, I think all of the agents for closers, particularly Type A, are starting to get cold feet about free agency. Rafael Soriano’s agent said he is seriously considering arbitration, even though the Braves already have a closer and set up reliever. Betancourt apparently has decided to eschew his free agent salary offers, and accept arbitration. I think this off-season is looking like a very weak salary market for closers, since teams with budget issues are examining cheaper options. I had hoped that Valverde’s agent would arrive at this conclusion only after the arbitration date passed. But maybe not. I think the public stances by other relief pitchers’ agents (that arbitration may be a better option) had to make him think it over.

by clack on Dec 7, 2009 11:47 AM CST reply actions

Sports Illustrated's Heyman....

Heyman says “execs expect” Jose Valverde to remain in Houston, whether through accepting arbitration today or just re-signing later.

From mlbtraderumors.com

by clack on Dec 7, 2009 12:20 PM CST reply actions

I still think it could go either way.

I hope he rejects, but you know, I won’t be that disappointed if he accepts. I suppose if we have to pick between 2-3 years of Hawkins at $5 million/year and one year of Valverde at $9 million, I’d take the latter in a heartbeat.

However, I really hope Wade is prepared this time to jump at the chance to trade him at the deadline.

by OremLK on Dec 7, 2009 12:49 PM CST reply actions

Ouch.

Valverde accepting (I expect $9.5M) leaves Wade with ~ $5M remaining, and he still needs a fourth outfielder, a 3B, and SP. He must really be banking on one of Paulino/Wright/Bazardo to explode. I’m fine with going with Quintero/Towles/Castro at catcher, as all are defensively sound at the least, and Towles/Castro have upside. I’m really worried about SS/3B. I’d be fine with Manzella if we had an offensive counterbalance at 3rd, but at this point we don’t. An everyday lineup that has Quintero, Blum, Manzella, and Matsui is just plain weak. If Valverde accepts, I think Wade has room to add a veteran 4th outfielder in the Erstad/Michaels mold for ~$2M, which leaves 3-4M to fix one more hole. Maybe Drayton splurges to keep Tejada for $6M/yr for 2 years.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 7, 2009 12:58 PM CST reply actions

I favor Valverde returning

The downside is loss of money flexibility. So far I have not seen any indication Astros would do much with whatever milions it saved if Valverde signed elsewhere.

Plus a dependable closer helps the team in innumerable ways.

Draft picks would be nice but I come down on the side of preferring Valverde returns.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 7, 2009 3:32 PM CST reply actions

Eh

I’d say a good third baseman would be more valuable in terms of wins added. It’s hard to judge the impact of leverage though, I guess. The very best would be a pair of first round picks, in my opinion, since we’re going to stink this season anyway. (Helps rebuild faster.)

by OremLK on Dec 7, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

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