Tuesday Morning Astros Discussion: Hall of Fame Prognostications
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 29, 2009 3:56 AM CST
in Editorials
13 comments
Will the Astros have someone in the hall of fame by the end of the next decade? Yes. Will the Astros have someone in the hall of fame before they next make the playoffs? Not an easy question to answer. Either way, Craig Biggio, as we all know, is a first ballot hall of famer. What isn't so clear, is whether his former soulmate teammate, Jeff Bagwell will beat him out and become the first Astro enshrined in the Hall.
Yes, that's right. Next winter we will get to join in on the endless debate and discussion about balloting, and make our impassioned pleas for Bags. As a Astros-blogger, I can tell you life will be sweet. I think it doesn't require hammering out Bagwell's credentials statistically. The dude was good. Also, I can't think of a single macro Hall of Fame barometer that doesn't have Bagwell Hall of Fame caliber player.
The stumbling block for a sultan of goatees awesome batting stances will be what the mainstream writers of America overly scrutinize about his career. There's his lack of a World Series ring, followed by his team's continual post-season angst. That's topped with a healthy dose of not reaching 500 HR like his buddy, Frank Thomas, did. Never mind that former eighth wonder of the world debacle, there will likely be doubts.
The doubts, however, are what makes our soon to be legitimized Hall of Fame watchdogness truly interesting. Say Bagwell doesn't make in as a first ballot. I can hear many a beat writer thinking to themselves, "Eh, he doesn't have 500 HR, he can't be a first ballot guy." That would push it another year and set up the following thought, "Well, Biggio's due up next year. How magical would that be?"
I'm sure I'm not revealing something you haven't already thought of on your own. The point of the previous four paragraphs wasn't to spell out the facts, but to allow me to prattle on drive the conversation away from where the above takes us. Suspend your rationality for a second and engage in a purely hypothetical situation where there's no practicality standing the way of idle wishing. I know this is something that as a front page author I have tried to do the opposite of...most of the time...I hope. But just do it, and then answer this question and explain yourself in the comments section (If you want to, you can opine of the relative feasibility of any of the below options coming to fruition...just don't vote that way):
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I voted first
because If you’re a hall of famer you’re a hall of famer, if you’re good enough to get in on the 15th ballot then you should of been good enough to get in on the first. A hall of famer is a hall of famer is a hall of fame. They have 5 years after the player retire to debate and review the numbers, that seems like a reasonable amount of time. Anyways I think Bagwell is a first ballot hall of famer, for nostalgia though I think he’s going in with Biggio.
The other thing to keep in mind is who is he up against these next couple years look a bit light on big names:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Category:Eligible_for_the_Hall_of_Fame_in_2011
Obviously their will be carry overs from this year but we’ll have to see who get’s in and who doesn’t. Some of the names from the 2011 eligible list that I believe have a good case are:
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Al Leiter
Tino Martinez
Raul Mondesi
John Olerud
Rafeal Palmerio
Steve Reed
B.J. Surhoff
Larry Walker
I didn’t look at defensive numbers as defensive numbers are usually an add-on in the debate of hall of fame worthy, not that I agree with that.
Couple things to take away from this list is that Bagwell is the best hitter out of the position players. Palmerio is going to lose votes because of the steriod connection. Olerud is a better hitter than I suspected. I threw Steve Reed on their because of the recent change in admitting relievers, though I don’t think he has much of a shot. John Franco (one time Astro) looks to be possibly the only lock, unless the voters decide to make him wait like Sutter and Goosage. Kevin Brown only has 211 wins and Larry Walker has 2160 hits.
by timmy_ on Dec 29, 2009 7:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
2011 HOF
Of those new to the 2011 HOF ballot, only Bagwell and Larry Walker have a chance of being elected.
The best Franco can hope for is a long time on the ballot, a la Lee Smith. I hadn’t even considered him, but will add him to my list.
Palmeiro would have a great chance except for steroids – see Mark McGwire.
Raul Mondesi, Steve Reed and BJ Surhoff won’t make a second ballot.
by dadlakla on Dec 29, 2009 8:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It does not appear that Fred McGriff is getting much traction so far (at least based on the glimpses of HOF ballots so far). I suspect that isn’t a good sign for Bagwell. Yes, Bagwell is better than McGriff (IMO), but McGriff is a first baseman whose offense is borderline HOF. Some McGriff fans have a Hall of Fame campaign web site, and here are some of the offensive stats from that site. McGriff’s OPS+ is below Bagwell’s, but above Palmeiro’s.
My only concern is that McGriff is similar enough to Bagwell that if he gets a very small percentage of votes this year, I have to think it indicates some hesitance to vote for that type of 1st baseman.
by clack on Dec 29, 2009 9:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
BBTF has some early results for HOF ballots this year:
Link.
However, these early results probably are more “reasonable” than what the actual final percentages will turn out to be….partly because a lot of the voters, who vote “no” on almost everybody or who vote based on personal relationships/grudges, don’t publicly disclose their votes.
by clack on Dec 29, 2009 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thinking like a hall of famer voter
Bagwell has the hardware a RoY, MVP and a GG, while McGriff has none of those. Not necessarily the best measure of a player but something HoF voters take into consideration
by timmy_ on Dec 29, 2009 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting comparison. Bagwell’s on base and slugging percentages are significantly higher though. And Bags had two 40/30 seasons, which is pretty unheard of for a first baseman. While McGriff does have more hits and homers—he also had almost 1000 more at bats.
by jmike on Dec 29, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd want Bags in first, I feel he deserves an immediate entry.
That being said, you know people are going to look at him as a potential steroid user which could really hurt him. In NO, ASBOLUTELY NO WAY, am I saying Bags cheated, I’d never believe it even if the proof was in front of me, but you know that’s just how so many writers are these days trying to create stories, as opposed to reporting stories.
by robolundgren on Dec 29, 2009 4:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I voted to let them go in together
I wonder how many would have voted for the undisclosed option: Biggio first, then Bagwell
Or
One of them and not the other (Yikes!)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 29, 2009 5:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I actually
wrote my college thesis on the prospects of Power Era players’ admission into the Hall of Fame. Bagwell stacks up very well among those in his generation, and is one of the top-2 first baseman of that time period (the other being the Big Hurt).
I think he is highly regarded among the writers, at least more so than McGriff. One stat that particularly jumps out at me is his 200 career stolen bases. I will always remember his mowing down on the hitter who was squared around to bunt, but it’s something like 200 career stolen bases that will get him noticed with the writers. Ken Griffey, Jr. doesn’t even have 200 SB.
Bill James consistently ranks him as one of the best first basemen of all time, but for some reason never chooses to explain his reasoning. I wish I knew why.
Anyway, Bagwell will probably get in down the road, but I’m not even sure it will be with Biggio. Even though in my opinion Bagwell is more deserving than Biggio, the 3,000 hit mark is a de facto first ballot guarantee. It might take a few years for Bagwell to start garnering enough votes, but I’d peg his entry somewhere betweens his 3rd and 5th appearances on the ballot.
by JEH629 on Dec 30, 2009 6:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James consistently ranks him as one of the best first basemen of all time, but for some reason never chooses to explain his reasoning. I wish I knew why.
Win Shares, basically. He’s got the most since Foxx.
Yes, Bagwell was the best first baseman in fifty years.
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 30, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Bagwell and Biggio both will benefit from the trend toward adoption of sabermetric stats. James championed the Biggio and Bagwell causes during the 1990s, and I think that helped focus attention on more comprehensive advanced stats like Win Shares. Some critics claim that James developed a bias in favor of Bagwell/Biggio because they became symbols of his argument that players should be valued based on measuring the multitude of ways in which they contributed to winning games.
There is very little disagreement within the sabermetric community (of which I am aware, anyway) that Bagwell belongs in the HOF. However, sabermetric stats are advancing within the mainstream media at a rather slow pace. Some BBWA voters hate advanced stats and will never look at them. Over time, things will change. Whether the change will be sufficient in 2011 to help Bagwell is anyone’s guess.
by clack on Dec 31, 2009 7:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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