A Week's Worth of Astro-Related Links
There were many, many posts last week, but we never got around to discussing these excellent articles posted by Jonathan Mayo. First, he discussed whether the draft should be internationalized (which I did link to in the Aroldis Chapman piece). Then, he discussed whether draft picks should be traded. Lastly (and most controversially) Mayo talked about the draft slotting system.
Now, I'm of many opinions on these issues and most of them came down on the opposite side of the articles. Why exactly should the players agree to an international draft? I can sure see why the teams want it, since they'd have a little more control over player ages from Latin American countries and the spending on baseball academies would be curbed to some extent. Still, this is purely a move to save owners from having to spend MORE money on teenagers who probably won't pan out.
As for trading draft picks, you don't see either the NFL or NBA directly hurt by the trading of draft picks. Sure, every blue moon some Mike Ditka will trade an entire draft for Ricky Williams, but this will not lead to the Yankees and Red Sox owning every high draft pick. At least, they won't have any more of a competitive advantage than they do now. Teams will still have to get value for top picks and will still have to pick the right players. You can't tell me that the Pirates wouldn't have benefited from picking up a second or third round pick last July for the right to trade down five spots and still draft Tony Sanchez. Just doesn't make sense.
If there is anything I can't stand, it's this slotting system. The reason I dislike it so much? Because teams don't have to abide by it. It was not collectively bargained, so it's not even official. The only ramification for breaking slot to sign a player is a stern phone call from Bud Selig. That's why teams like Detroit can do it so willingly, even though they don't have the same payroll flexibility as the bigger spenders. I don't mind the concept of a rookie salary scale. It works well enough in the NBA, but you can't have it both ways. MLB either needs to set up a collectively-bargained rookie salary scale or they need to free owners of these senseless guidelines. Is it really that bad for Stephen Strasberg to want 50 million? Or that he got 20? I promise the world wouldn't end with a free market in the draft.
I railed enough about Houston's spending in the draft, but these don't seem like good fixes to me. The problem isn't the scope of the draft (important note: scouts have since the draft moved to Puerto Rico, the talent there has dwindled dramatically. Causal? Probably not, but interesting to watch). No, the problem is how teams view the draft. It's impossible to justify giving big money to a kid who might not see the light of day for three to four years. That's not good business. There has to be a balance between the owners and players best interest but that middle ground probably lies somewhere outside these three suggestions.
Onto more links:
- One of the more clever defenses of statistics-based analysis that I've seen lately.
- Have you seen the Matt Capps bidding? It's apparently down to Washington and Chicago. The Astros-related question here: which team, upon losing out on Capps, would be more likely to move onto Valverde? Is it Washington because Valverde could close? Or do the Cubs make more sense because they have a bigger payroll?
- How many former Astro catchers are there floating around the major leagues? Can anyone find out and leave the answer in the comments? I bet there's at least 10 different backstops currently active who have played for Houston. Someone back me up (ha, get it?).
- I'm really fascinated by the stuff put out by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC?). This article talks about player valuation, which is hard to do in basketball. In baseball though? Don't we have pretty good methods for determining how good or bad a player is? With all the statistical data? Or is there still something we miss in all those numbers?
- Have to give a shoutout to one of our own, clack. His article was quoted and linked to by Derek Carty over at the Hardball Times, in an article about whether Bill James' projections were too optimistic. Kudos all around.
- Huh, this is not a truism that I had ever heard of before. Do people really think that the American League throws less fastballs? Are there any other bizarre bits of collective wisdom I'm missing?
- Another breakdown of the Astros top 10 prospects. I'm sure Baseball America will roll theirs out soon and Minor League Ball should have an Astros system writeup coming soon. My question to you is this: could I interest you in a Crawfish Boxes Top 10 prospect list? Maybe written by the tag-team of farmstros and me? Or do you want to read from the experts? Think about it and I'll get back to you.
- There may still be time for that one last present for the special baseball fan in your life. One of these books may be your answer. I've read three of the six and they're quite good. I hear Posnanski's latest on the Big, Red Machine is also great, but haven't gotten a chance to read it yet.
31 comments
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Comments
NL-AL difference in fastballs.
Yes, the idea that the NL is a fastball league, compared to the AL, has been around a long time. Just last year, Roy Oswalt talked about Pudge’s transition to the NL, and he said the main problem was that Pudge had to get used to different pitching calling in the NL, because fastballs are used more in the NL. (I also recall Oswalt saying that fastballs are called earlier in counts in the NL.) I recall Roger Clemens also saying that the NL uses fastballs more. I have seen quotes from many hitters who say the same thing.
I never have thought much about whether it is true, but assumed there must be some validity to it in order for so many players to claim it to be true. I think there is a possibility that this is a view that was true at one time and now continues to be repeated whether it continues to be true or not. My recollection is that the “NL=fastball” proposition was talked about more often in the 1980’s, and maybe it was true then. The possibility also exists that the fastball is used differently in the NL (as Oswalt seemed to indicate), and that gives hitters/pitchers the impression that it is thrown more often, even if it isn’t.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 7:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Clack
By far had the smartest sounding of the critiques of Bill James. I’m glad they selected him. Thanks for making us look good!!
Second, you and farmstros should definitely do an in-house top-15. I’d love to see where you guys have players compared to the expert list. The additional five will allow for comparisons to be made for those who sneak up on some lists or fall off of others.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 23, 2009 9:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I love reading prospect list and value the opinions of a lot ya’ll around here because you actually care about the organzation,not just making the lists because its something you do or your job, i’m interested int he differences
by Subber10 on Dec 23, 2009 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Iverson player valuation article...
you ask:
In baseball though? Don’t we have pretty good methods for determining how good or bad a player is? With all the statistical data? Or is there still something we miss in all those numbers?
Maybe you were asking a rhetorical question. The linked article contends that statistical valuation based on creation of wins doesn’t tell the whole story, because it omits the player’s characteristics related to revenue generation. The Jeter and Iverson examples are good ones to make that point. For instance, what sells more tickets? A defensive player who is so smooth that every play looks easy, or a player whose defensive range is statistically sub-par, but who makes spectacular looking plays on the balls he gets to? In this age of Sports Center web gems, the spectacular plays are more visual and create more interest. Of course, not all teams can surrender wins without harm like the Yankees.
But I think this is part of the disconnect between Drayton McLane’s way of thinking and the criticism by baseball analytic writers and bloggers. McLane likes the big splash associated with “stars” and “names” more than paying money to unknowns with potential. I think he sees the revenue generation from a marketing point of view. He sees the value of keeping Oswalt, Berkman, Bagwell, and Biggio as more than wins and losses, but also part of maintaining a marketing image of the team.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 9:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
2010 NL Central WAR
I put together my preliminary WAR estimates for each team and here is the link to how the NL Central shaked out.
No team other than the Cardinals did very well. There still may be a few players switching teams.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 23, 2009 10:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wow, the division looks fairly competitive, albeit with poor W/L results for everybody but the Cards. If the Cards have any significant injuries or the like, this could be similar to the 2006 NL Central when 83 wins or so is good enough.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cardinals projection does not
include Matt Holliday. So there’s a good chance they see a bump.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 23, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
…assuming the Cards sign Holliday. …that Boras is a crafty devil….
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cards
does it include Piniero? Does the Brewers include Wolf?
by ol Pete on Dec 23, 2009 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No it doesn't
thanks for mentioning that. I will do an update shortly.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 23, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Last years Astros team
finished with a total of 22.1 + 48 = 70.1 WAR and finished with 74 wins.
Hitting: 12.1
Pitching: 10.0
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 23, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you might be underestimating the Astros’ pitching this year then. At least, we Astros fans can hope.
by OremLK on Dec 23, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm catchers
chavez, zaun, bako, buck, bako, ausmus …who else?
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Dec 23, 2009 3:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
pudge
sorry bout that second bako
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Dec 23, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Eric Munson (80 games over 2006 and 2007) got one plate appearance for Oakland in 2009.
I believe that with the addition of Munson, the list is complete.
J. R. House didn’t see any major league time in 2009, but he caught 3 games for us in 2006.
by AstroAndy on Dec 23, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You also forgot the greatest of them all
Tony Eusebio
You also have Q, and John Buck never played for the Astros he was traded while still working his way up in the minors.
by timmy_ on Dec 29, 2009 8:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Coste
I will always remember that double in the bottom of the ninth against the cardinals. Still can’t believe that the Mets gave him a job though.
by Lancealot on Dec 23, 2009 4:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
he’s not guaranteed a major league job by the Mets. it’s a minor league contract which guarantees that he will be kept on the 40 man roster, if I recall correctly.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 5:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another WAR NL Central breakdown over at Birdland.
by ol Pete on Dec 23, 2009 7:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Cardinals’ surprisingly similar to xeifrank’s WAR ranking. (I was expecting Birdland to have some fan bias before I clicked on it.) That also looks like a close grouping for the NL Central. Cardinals’ fans have to be crossing the fingers about getting Holliday, because otherwise this division could turn into a dog fight. If the Astros have 79 wins (per WAR) but get their usual “exceed pythagoras” boost, they could be in theoretical contention for much of the season.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 8:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If you click through the Vivaelbirdos link, you can see his WAR projections for Astros’ players. I think the projections for Bourn and Pence (2.75 and 2.5, respectively) are somewhat lower than I would expect. That’s saying that Bourn and Pence are almost 1.5 and 1 wins worse than last year. I can see some regression for Bourn, but not that much. I don’t really think Pence will regress much at all, and given his age, I suspect improvement is more likely. On the other hand, 2 wins for Towles may be optimistic, given that he hasn’t proven he can do that in the majors yet.
by clack on Dec 23, 2009 9:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd agree with those
I think some of the Cards projections were high and I wonder if the UZR component is driving those.
by ol Pete on Dec 24, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think so.
I’m not sure which players you are referring to. But Freese and Ryan probably benefit from a UZR component. Rasmus too. I’ve never heard of Craig in LF. Who is he?
by clack on Dec 24, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I have
Pence at 4.0 WAR
Bourn at 3.0 WAR
Where the Birdland WAR breakdown runs into problems is that they aren’t accounting for negative WAR from pitchers hitting, AAAA types that will inevitably put up negative WAR etc…
There should be a negative WAR column for both hitters and pitchers that is based off of bench strength and injury likeliehood. Since Birdland doesn’t have such an entry, he has to lower the WAR of all (or most) of the players to make the total come out to something more respectable.
For example, here are the negative hitting WAR that all of the NL Central teams garnered last year (2009).
STL: -6.2
CHN: -6.6
MIL: -4.6
CIN: -6.1
HOU: -5.0
PIT: -5.9
I call this offset “sucktitude”. And without accounting for it, you will have to heavily manually tweek each players individual WAR in order to come out with a reasonable team total.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Dec 24, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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