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Are Ed Wade and Brian Cashman on the same page?

A lot has been made today of the importance of Javier Vazquez's contract. Vazquez comes to the Yanks at one year and $11.5 million dollars. Thus, many have speculated that all signs point to the fact that Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, is setting himself up to shed payroll at a time when a bountiful crop of FA talent opens up on the market and Cashman can open up the Steinbrener's coffers. Think Joe Mauer catching Sabathia and Burnett, while batting in front of, behind—or whatever—of A-Rod and Teixeria. And that just would be the tip of the iceberg.

A lot has been said of the saviness of the Vazquez trade for Cashman precisely because of this (also because: how in the hell do you trade away the league leader in xFIP, who only makes $11.5 million, for Melky Cabrera?). Savvy moves by a GM. That's really not something I have heard said of a Houston GM in a long time.

Seriously, think about our signings.

Even the ones that turned out well were ridiculued at the time. Arbtration decisions? Caustic reactions. Last offseason? Splash signings of Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez, and a trade that saw Drew Sutton depart for Jeff Keppinger. The year before? Kaz Matsui at three years and $16.5 million dollars. Don't forget the Miguel Tejada trade on the eve of the Mitchell report, or how much the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn swap made your head explode throughout 2008. Even if the Valverde trade wasn't bad, by the time all was said and done, our farm system was pretty much desolate and people hated it. 2007? You have to love an offseason that sees Drayton McLane run Andy Pettitte out of town and bring in Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams to a two year deal on the basis of his ballpark enabled late-career-peak-season at Petco. 2006? Preston...ok, I'll stop.

The point is there hasn't been an offseason move, in awhile, in Houston that had a majority of pundits, fans, etc. all agreeing that a Houston Astros GM did something pretty savvy. This offseason has been no different. Painfully so, at times, actually.

But then, in the wake of the Vazquez for Cabrera hubub, it dawned on me: Ed Wade is stacking his chips up for 2013, just like Cashman is for 2011. The following players are off the books, if we want them to be, after 2012: everyone making anything meaningful in the way of salary. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Kaz Matsui, Roy Oswalt (could take a reduced buyout and walk away after 2011), Lance Berkman (technically his contract is out in 2011). Left on the books (hopefully, due to some "the time is ripe" extensions): Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Wesley Wright, Sammy Gervacio, Chia Jen-Lo? Jordan Lyles? Jiovanni Meyer?! That entire combination costs what? $20-25 million to field? Throw in the likelihood of new ownership and there could easily be a $90 million pot of gold at the end of the hot stove rainbow.

I'm not trying to suggest that Wade should let Oswalt and Berkman walk away. In fact, he shouldn't. The point is, Wade came into Houston two years ago with no payroll flexibility and no farm system. In two years, Ed Wade could have an absurd about of payroll flexibility thanks to Bobby Heck, and co.'s farm system. All of this because Ed Wade hasn't signed anyone to a contract that impinges on the magical offseason of 2012.

That's right, there's method to the maddness...possibily.

Does that excuse the iffy of signings, or moves, that Wade has made? No. But Ed Wade won't be searching for guys on the fringe at that point. He'll targeting the top tier free agents. Whatever kind of analysis he's using at that point, it's hard to botch those (unless we through Prince Fielder a Carlos Lee type deal*). Depending on what happens in the next CBA, he probably won't even have to worry all the much about losing a ton of draft picks.

It's like a perfect storm. Ed Wade will get to put the garnishes on a team that he'll have worked for four years to make salvagable. The meat and potatoes will be the guys he's hung onto and the guys he's drafted. I'm almost ready to purchase my 2013 playoff tickets.

Of course, the problem with thesis that Ed Wade has been patiently playing the fool and/or just kind of screwing around for four years to set up a blockbust 2012 offseason has one flaw: it could be what the Mayan's were predicting would bring on the apocalypse. Can you imagine an entire slew of FanGraphs articles praising Ed Wade? Thinking about that possibility has more more convinced that the Mayans might have it right. 

*I have no idea who exactly will and won't be in the 2012 Free Agent class, but Prince Fielder just fit the range and weight of the analogy I needed to make.

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If I had been in the room when Ed Wade was being interviewed for the GM job in 2007, I’d have asked him what his 5-year plan was. I’d be willing to bet his answer would have been basically what you just outlined. Rebuilding: Astros style. It’s not flashy, but it’s thorough. 2008 and 2009 were about picking through the mess that Purpura left behind and spinning straw into something better (Cusick → Hawkins, Reineke → Wolf, etc.). Lately, we’ve been hiring excellent baseball men…guys like Bobby Heck, Brad Mills, Brad Arnsberg, and most recently Eric Young (which I’m quite excited about…I hope he pulls Pence aside during ST). The next few years will be about getting experience for the younger guys (Norris, Paulino, Towles, and Castro) and continuing to build the farm, waiting out those cumbersome contracts.

What’s been frustrating is that national baseball writers will often criticize individual signings, but because they aren’t avid followers of the ‘Stros, they can’t see the bigger picture. Even simpler stuff…like improving the overall infield defense…this makes groundball pitchers (Like Lindstrom, Sampson, Arias) more effective and will help ease the transition for Paulino and Norris (it’s easier to pitch more confidently if you’re not worried about grounders squeaking through the infield). The Ed Wade Blueprint is getting clearer and clearer, and like DQ, I fully expect this team to be hitting on all cylinders (from A-ball to the majors) by 2013.

by AstroAndy on Dec 22, 2009 7:45 PM CST reply actions  

Ed Wade could have the greatest off-season in history and he wouldn’t get credit for it. I’m not really a Wade fan, but I can tell that the national media and bloggers have already made up their mind that every move made by Wade is terrible— because they have this story line to follow, which always ends up with a Wade joke.

Wade will have more fun with off-season plans in 2013—-if he lasts that long. That’s the risk with Ed Wade’s long term strategy; Drayton or some other owner will get tired of the fan and media complaints and fire Wade to appease them.

by clack on Dec 22, 2009 8:11 PM CST reply actions  

I wonder what would happen if we went into sell mode

I was thinking about this last night. We’ve talked about this before and concluded that the Astros are stuck, but that’s assuming you only trade big contracts; what if they really stripped it down and started moving all the productive guys under team control? It would hurt badly right now, but the front office could get a truckload of prospects for guys like Wandy, Pence, and Bourn. It’s feasible that Oswalt and Berkman might give trade approval as well, and there are some lesser role-players like Byrdak and Keppinger who could net us a marginal prospect or two each.

All in all, it would improve the farm system considerably.

If we’re waiting until 2013 to contend, that makes a lot more sense to me. By that time, Wandy will be on a big contract if he still plays for us, (he’ll be eligible for free agency) and well into his thirties. Oswalt will be retired if he’s true to his word; even if he wants to keep playing, he too will be getting older, and his back is problematic. He won’t get any cheaper. Berkman will be in the last year or two of his career. Pence and Bourn will be expensive, especially Pence, who will be eligible for free agency at that point like Wandy. Several other young guys will have gone through multiple years of arbitration.

The only way Wade’s strategy right now makes more sense to me is if he plans to contend in 2011. If 2013 is the goal, holding onto these guys while their value is the highest doesn’t compute for me.

by OremLK on Dec 22, 2009 10:28 PM CST reply actions  

with vasquez going to the yankees

the angels are desperate for a starting pitching, i wonder how much we could get back from them if we give up wandy?

by strosfan31 on Dec 23, 2009 3:08 AM CST up reply actions  

The Astros will try to stay marginally competitive in the near term. The Astros are not a team which can go all-Pirates on their fans. This has more to do with the business of running a team than constructing a team. The Astros don’t want to send any “we give up” signals to fans because they are trying to maintain a revenue stream.

by clack on Dec 23, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions  

I don’t think selling off some of the younger players at this point is a very good move. Sure you’ll bring a load of prospects, but in 2013 you’ll have just that a bunch of young players who still need to get experience. I think the young players now Bourn, Pence, Norris and Paulino will develop in the next few years and will provide a key veteran presence to the team in the years when the prospects now will be hitting the big league level.

by timmy_ on Dec 23, 2009 9:08 AM CST up reply actions  

Gearing up for 2013?

If Wade is stacking the chips for 2013, he is waiting way to long. Brad Mills was his hire and if the Astros don’t have a 90 win season in the next 2 maybe 3 seasons, they’re both out.

by Hoodoo Opr8r on Dec 23, 2009 3:39 PM CST reply actions  

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