Valverde puts himself in a bad market...and how that affects the Astros
The title on FoxSports Rosenthal's article says it all, "Too many closers not enough jobs." With several teams, including the Astros, acquiring their closers, not enough good paying closer jobs remain, and quite a few potential closers remain on the market. As Rosenthal says, this game of musical chairs will not end well for somebody.
Former Astros closer Jose Valverde is the cream of the crop. But Rosenthal's commentary is interesting:
Jose Valverde. His problem is not performance,,,No, Valverde’s problem is that he is a Type A free agent who rejected his team’s offer of salary arbitration. His decision, in part, was fueled by emotion; Valverde, one friend said, was upset with the Astros for declining to sign him long-term.
Thus, he made a personal decision, if not -- perhaps -- the best business move...Teams are interested. They have to be interested. The question is at what price.
Rosenthal points out that the teams which are looking for closers now--Tigers, Nationals, and Padres--are in a cost cutting mode. He suspects that some closers may have to take set up jobs on teams with bigger budgets.
Since Valverde appears to be gone for good, what does this have to do with the Astros? Well, the Astros offered arbitration in order to get a 1st and sandwich (between 1st and 2d) round draft pick for Valverde's Type A status. And the market issues for Valverde could put that draft plum at risk. Entering a weak market with the draft compensation weight around his neck, Valverde may end up signing with a bottom 15 team (like the Nationals) which cannot lose its 1st round pick. In that situation, the Astros would only get the sandwich pick. Or perhaps he becomes more attractive to big market teams after those teams have already lost their first round pick by signing a Type A free agent. It's possible that the the Astros only receive a 2d or 3d round pick in that situation. The worst case scenario (for both the Astros and Valverde) is that he insists on too much money or too many years, and doesn't sign until after the next amateur draft (at which point he loses the compensation requirement) in which case the Astros get nothing. I don't think that is likely at all. But I should mention the worst case scenario.
It's tempting to say that the Astros should have waited on acquiring a closer until later in the off-season because the market will get weaker. Perhaps there is some merit to this view. But I see two counters to that argument. First, Wade had to find out what he would spend on the closer before he could know what he can spend on anyone else. I can understand Wade's quandry, and subsequent desire to resolve the late inning questions first. Second, the Astros' decision to take Lyon and Lindstrom off the market has a lot to do with creating the market glut. When the market has so few players and teams, removing one team and two players has a significant effect.
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If he signs with a bottom 15 team, your right we don’t get their 1st round, but we do still get the sandwich pick, but we also get the 2nd round instead, so its not a complete loss, not the best scenario, but still helps.
by Subber10 on Dec 20, 2009 10:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I believe we just get a second round pick (plus the usual supplementary first round) instead of a first round pick if he signs with a bottom 15 team, right? Not nearly as valuable, but there are still good players to be found there and it still bolsters the draft.
He will sign with somebody. Heck if Pudge got a multi-year deal then surely Valverde can. He’s probably misjudged the market and is demanding too much money right now. His price will come down.
by OremLK on Dec 20, 2009 10:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think both of you are right about the 2d round pick too....
that makes sense to me, but the wikipedia article only mentioned the supplemental pick for that situation.
A worse, but not unrealistic outcome, is that Valverde signs with the Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox after one of those teams has already signed a higher ranked Type A like Holliday, Bay, or Lackey (Sox have already signed him), in which case the Astros get a 2d round (or worse) pick instead of a supplemental pick. The Brewers got a 3d round pick as compensation when the Yankees signed C.C. Sabbathia last year.
Of course, the Astros can’t come out worse than the Braves. The Braves expected 4 picks (2 first rounders and 2 2d rounders) by offering arb to Gonzalez and Soriano. With that expectation, the Braves gave up their 1st and 2d round pick to the Red Sox to get Wagner. But Soriano accepted arbitration (and had to be traded to the Rays) and Gonzalez signed with the Orioles (who can’t give up a first round pick)…so they end up with a sandwich pick and 2d round pick.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sorry, let me clear up the scenario...
in the scenario above for the Red Sox (for instance), if Valverde signed there, the Astros would only get a 3d and 4th rounder, because the 1st and 2d rounder go to the Angels for Lackey, and the Red Sox cannot be forced to use any draft picks they received as compensation from the Braves. Similar to what would happen with Yankees or Mets if they also signed Bay or Holliday.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think thats right
A team only has to give up one pick for signing an A free agent. In that scenario the Red Sox would only be giving up their 1st round pick for signing Lackey. Also, Valverde is ranked higher than Lackey, so if the Red Sox signed him we would get their 1st round pick, and a supplemental that doesn’t cost anyone a pick, and the Angels would get their 2nd round pick, and a supplemental that doesn’t cost anyone a pick. Holliday is the only free agent rated higher than Valverde (he barely beats out Bay).
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 20, 2009 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The list I looked at showed Lackey as higher than Valverde, but it could be wrong since it was on a blog.
Yes, you are correct that the second pick doesn’t come from the signing team. However, the supplemental picks to the Angels would be after the 2d round in that scenario.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the supplemental pick is always after the 1st round, regardless of where the compensation pick ends up being.
Basically, if Valverde signs with someone we will get their first or second round pick (the only way we can end up with a third round pick is if a team that finished in the bottom half last year signs Holliday and Valverde – verely unlikely) and a supplemental pick near the top of the supplemental round (probably 33rd or 34th).
The supplemental rounds after the 2nd and 3rd rounds are only for teams that failed to sign draft picks from last year. Every supplemental pick for a free agent leaving happens after the 1st round, with the order depending on the ranking of the player. Here is what the draft looks like right now, and there is a link on this page to what the draft order will look like assuming that all free agents sign with a different team. http://riveraveblues.com/2010-draft-order/
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 20, 2009 7:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
According to wikipedia the order of the supplemental round is not determined by player ranking, but by team record, with all the teams who lost “A” free agents followed by all the teams who lost “B” free agents. The Astros have the worst record of any team who lost a type “A” free agent, so no matter who signs Valverde (as long as he signs, and it isn’t with us) we get the 33rd pick in the draft, plus the 1st or 2nd round pick of whover signs him.
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 20, 2009 7:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you are also correct on the rankings.
I found a better source than the what I was using.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-11-16-complete-elias-rankings_N.htm
Only one FA has higher ranking points than Valverde ……Matt Holliday .
by HubertL on Dec 21, 2009 9:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Given
That Heck has a penchant for finding value in the slot type picks, it could be worse.
I’m not sure who Valverde’s agent is, but he definitely do the greatest job of advising his client if this was fueled by Valerde having his feelings hurt. How hard is it to explain to your client, “Listen, Jose, the Astros are a terribly mismanaged franchise, and while Ed Wade dreams of overpaying you for five years—he can’t.” Problem solved, no?
Given the market, not offering Hawkins arbitration looks even worse. He would have been a pariah. He would have been forced to come back and accept whatever we offered him. Of course, I doubt Ed Wade would have capitalized on his position of power in that situation, so maybe this is a moot point.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 20, 2009 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yes, failing to offer arb to Hawkins was a mistake. Many of us said so at the time. I think Wade thought he could sign Hawkins to a 1 year deal, and didn’t anticipate the Brewers’ three year deal.
Interestingly, In looking at brewcrewball after the Brewers’ signings, I noticed that Hawkins expressed regrets to the Milwaukee media that he isn’t playing in Houston. The brewcrewball article gave Hawkins credit for honesty, but it didn’t exactly endear him to Brewers’ fans.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2 year deal, no?
Melvin said something along the line of he needed to add the second year in order to sign him.
That blog is representative of a segment of the fans, but its pretty homogenous. They also hated Hardy. The latest mantra by the crowd is that not trading Fielder is foolish and he really isn’t that valuable. The tight fisted owner keeps him because it helps ticket sales rather than put out a better team that sells fewer tickets.
by ol Pete on Dec 20, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, 2 years...sorry.
And, oh yes, Fielder is really valuable. I can see the argument for trading Fielder, because he may not age well, but which team has the money and players to trade for Fielder? The Brewers should rightfully insist on a huge haul if Fielder is traded, but what teams might find trading for him realistic? The Yankees have Texeira, and they probably would just as well wait until Fielder is devalued to DH level and sign him as a free agent then.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox?
I don’t know. I’d like to see him signed to an extension. The rumored offer that wasn’t accepted was 5/80 and that was before he signed the last 2 year thing. That seemed like a pretty good offer. He’s also a pretty remarkable athlete. Obviously if he keeps carrying a lot of fat around and maybe adds to it, ankles, knees and other body parts will suffer. He did lose weight over the last off-season, so he started last year lighter, but to my eye he about gained what he lost. Add his girth to the list of standard ST stories.
by ol Pete on Dec 20, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought about the Red Sox. It’s hard to say whether their front office would do that.
by clack on Dec 20, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs




















