Is Ed Wade Crazy Like A Fox?

with some thoughts about Astros’ strategy, now that it is post-arb deadline. But I’m glad you opened it up so I can just make some comments (I wasn’t sure that I had enough to justify an article).

1. My sense is that the market prices will be depressed (relative to 2005 – 2007 off seasons) for the “middle class” free agents. Most of these players are substitutable, so that it’s hard for these players to hold onto a big advantage in the market (not so for impact players like Holliday). As an example, look at Valverde’s situation: how much of an advantage does he hold over players like Rodney, Dotel, Soriano, or Gonzalez? Maybe some, but is it worth millions?

2. Many teams’ front offices obviously foresee a depressed free agent market. That is the only explanation for the large number of Type A and B free agents who were not offered arbitration (Randy Wolf…a big surprise). The Dodgers didn’t make an arb offer to a single one of their seven Type A/B free agents—a record. The Brewers, who normally always offer arbitration, didn’t offer arbitration to any of their five A/B free agents. (I would guess that we will hear more talk about collusion from agents as we move into the off-season.)

2. This could make a number of players more attractive now that they no longer bring the loss of a draft choice (only a 2d rounder would have been at stake for the Astros). I like the idea of Polanco at 3d base, and he will not cost a draft pick.

3. However, from the Astros’ perspective, they may actually hold a competitive advantage bidding for Type A free agents who were offered arbitration. The loss of a first round pick should significantly depress the salary offers in general for these players. But the Astros are among the 15 teams who would not lose a first round pick, and at most only risk a 2d round pick. The teams with bigger budgets tend to be among the other 15 teams who lose a first round pick, meaning that the teams with the ability to increase the bidding will be discouraged from doing so. If the arbitration offer lowers the market for these players by more than $1 million (guesstimate), I would think the loss of a 2d round is justifiable.

4. No. 3 means that some back end relief pitchers like Soriano, Betancourt, and Gonzalez could produce a bargain for the Astros.

5. Turning to davoag’s points…The potential to sign Valverde for a reduced price seems to assume that Valverde will decline arbitration. I could see the scenario playing out if Valverde declines arbitration, tests the market, and then realizes that a one year reduced price contract with the Astros is his best bet. The question might be whether Valverde’s agent reads the market as negative at this early stage and accepts arbitration (doubtful, I think). I don’t know that both Hawkins and Valverde will be signed by the Astros. Hawkins will have some suitors; supposedly the Rockies indicated they will be in contract with him, and the Twins have always expressed some interest in bringing him back to his first team.

7mil with a 6.5mil option for 2011 if he finishes 50 games.