The Astros CAN contend in 2010......If EVERYTHING falls into place
I was just looking at the Astros 2005 lineup......do you remember that group?
Here are the starters at the beginning of 2005 in the field:
(Not in order)
1B – Jeff Bagwell (Only played in 39 games .250/3HR)
2B – Craig Biggio (.264/26HR)
3B – Morgan Ensberg (.283/36HR)
SS – Adam Everett (.248/11HR)
LF – Jason Lane (.267/26HR)
CF – Willy Taveras (.291/3HR)
RF – Luke Scott (.188/0HR Scott only had 80 at bats with a platoon in right with Palmeiro (.284/3HR 103 games)
C – Brad Ausmus (.258/3HR)
Now obviously they had guys playing huge roles coming off the bench like Mike Lamb (.236/12HR) and Lance Berkman (.293/24HR) (Berkman played first base when Bagwell went down early that year.)
(Biggio, Ensberg, Everett and Lane all had career highs in HR’s in 2005)
Now to the pitching. The starting five:
1) Roger Clemens (13-8/1.87era)
2) Roy Oswalt (20-12/2.94)
3) Andy Pettitte (17-9/2.39)
4) Wandy Rodriguez (10-10/5.53)
5) Brandon Backe (10-8/4.76)
(Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler and Brad Lidge taking care of the back end of games before Lidge went "Brain Dead" and forgot how to close out games. I wonder if we win the Series if Garner has Wheeler and/or Qualls closing???)
This is what WENT to the World Series in 2005. Yes, they had some guys step up the power numbers but no one went crazy with RBI. They had 3 very good pitchers but only one guy (Oswalt) with Cy-Young type numbers. Everything had to fall into place. You don’t just fall into a World Series. You have to get breaks and have things happen that help you win games; games that you probably shouldn’t win. Even the Yankees can’t buy into the World Series. You have to have talent and luck.
As 2010 rolls around, the Astros have a similar line up to ’05 and we can contend...but everything and I mean EVERYTHING must fall into place perfectly. We have a solid first baseman who should throw up good numbers. Solid power numbers from 3rd, left and right. Speed in center. If our young defensive stud shortstop is as good as advertised out defense up the middle will be very good. The defense as a whole should be better especially on the left side.
There’s going to be one thing missing without some attention from Ed Wade. And that is the #3 starter. Roy and Wandy are going to do their thing. I don’t think 13-15 wins each is out of the question. What are you going to get from Paulino, Bazardo, Moehler or whoever else appears to be ready to be in the 4-5 slots? You just don’t know. Is David "Bud" Norris ready to be the #3 starter? You just don’t know. I don’t believe he is. I think he will be very good; but not right now. He needs to be in that #4 slot preparing for his rightful #2 position. A position that I believe he will take sooner than later. The Astros have a chance to contend in 2010; but it will take one more move. Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Washburn, Justin Duchscherer, Jason Marquis, fill-in-the-blank! You pick your favorite; but the Astros MUST add a pitcher to the rotation.
I trust Ed Wade. Whatever you do Ed…..don’t let us down……go get a pitcher.
Playoffs in 2010??? It's up to the front office now.
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The 40-man roster
is filled up, so it is highly unlikely the Astros sign another pitcher for the rotation, unless one of those pitchers really really really wants to come play for the Astros. A trade is a possibility as well but unlikely.
I want some of what you are smoking. We can not contend with the rag tag group Drayton paying out for. Owalt , Berkman and Lee( well Lee put up good numbers) havent been producing. Drayton needs not to be sorry loyal and start running the Astros like his Super markets if a product doesnt work get rid of it!!!!
I don't get it.
Zach Levine got the same treatment in his article yesterday. What is wrong with being slightly optimistic about 2010?
"So I'm ugly. I never saw anyone hit with his face." -Yogi Berra
by hunterpencefan on Dec 16, 2009 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Have you seen the 2010 team? We have a shaky rotation as it is but if one of those arms goes down then I can’t name one arm I’d feel we could plug in their spot and actually be confident that we’ll win a game. Rotations don’t stay healthy like that. Our offensive is adequate, our rotation is adequate, our defense is adequate, our bullpen is adequate and our depth is terrible. I have never seen a team with only adequate characteristics across the board achieve much of anything. I hope I’m wrong.
Man you nailed it!
You also, as many have in here, made my point. Everything must fall in place. The bench got a shot in the arm when Blum was able to move to where he should be. Jason Michaels is quality depth and I expect Ed Wade isn’t quite finished. The 40-man is full BUT moves can still be made to improve the depth. Don’t be shocked to see Kelly Johnson backing up Matsui.
But it still comes down to the rotation and defense.
You place a judgment on players after one bad year??
Maybe you’re right and Berkman and Oswalt are in decline and done. But that’s not written in stone. You can’t just “get rid” of these players. Oswalt, Lee and Berkman have “no trade” clauses. But who’s to say they won’t have huge comeback years? As far as the rag tag comment……..what are YOU smoking. There are teams who would line up to get Pence and Bourn. Feliz has been a solid run producer for a championship team. Manzella is touted as one of the best defensive shorts stops the Astros have ever had. Jason Castro by all accounts is the real deal. Lee is always solid offensively and Bourn makes up for his lack of range in the outfield. Oswalt, Wandy and Norris have a legitimate chance to post a combined 45 wins with enough support. Lyon and Lindstrom are talented enough to lock down the 8th and 9th inning against any team. Rag tag is not even close to accurate.
The 2005 Astros had a better offensive team than what we have this year. The 2005 team scored about 50 more runs than the 2008 team, and this team isn’t likely to be a better offensive team than the 2008 team. The 2005 team also had one of the best pitching staffs of the decade, and appears to be a much better at pitching than the current team. So, I don’t know that I would use the 2005 team as a template.
Yes, if a whole lot of things go right for this team, I could see perhaps a 85 win season as the top possibility; and in order to have a chance at the playoffs, that would require a lot of other teams in the NL Central to fail. Not impossible, but doesn’t seem likely. As I have said elsewhere, the best chance for this team to contend would be to start off with a good hot streak so that the team is in contention by mid-season, and hope that McLane gets excited and trades for an impact type player at the trade deadline.
Exactly 50 runs
But….Berkman had a bad year. We had basically nothing from Blum and Feliz is a better RBI producer. The pitching staff was good but look at the numbers…not huge win totals but very good ERA’s….is that pitching or defense? The 2010 team should be a much improved defensive club.
2005 team has to be the template because they went to the Series. I agree that this team will not be one of the Astros all time best. It would be foolish of me to compare the 2010 team to ‘80, ’86, and ’94. Those teams were stellar. I’m simply saying the 2005 team was good but not great. Everything had to fall in place. The 2010 team has a chance to contend in the division if it happens again.
Is that an indica or sativa you’re hitting my friend? Maui Wowie? Alaskan Thunder F***? OG Kush? Whatever it is I want some of it. We are nowhere close to as good a team as they were. For this group to contend every player on the field will have to put up career numbers starting with the rotation. Roy O will have to prove to the doubters that he’s not on the decline, Wandy will need an encore performance, Norris will have to step up and show he is much more than a 1 or 2 pitch pitcher, Paulino/Wright or whoever will have to get at least 13-14 wins and tack on 13-14 wins to Moehler. Then you have to believe that Lindstrom will not only stay healthy but magically put all his talent together and the rest of the bullpen will stay healthy.
Onto offense. Bourn will have to prove last year was no fluke which will be tough but possible, Pence will have to be himself, Lee and Berkman can’t show any signs of age, Feliz will have to pick up his OBP a little and use the Crawford Boxes real well. Now that brings us the the middle of the infield. Manzella will have to be the defensive shortstop that is advertised and still be able to keep a BA of no lower than .260 which is a lot to ask. Kaz will have to stay healthy and keep a solid batting average and then whoever the catcher is will have to produce. They won’t be able to be too lax on offense because Manzella will be shaky and we can’t afford to have the bottom 3 spots of the lineup to be sure outs for the opposition. Plus we can’t afford many injuries especially in the rotation because we don’t have the depth to have guys fill in and be effective. Now if none of these players are shaky, they stay healthy and all of them achieve what they’re capable of achieving then sure it could happen but how many times have you seen a team stay healthy, achieve all it’s goals and quickly grow up in a season while playing under horrible ownership and under a first time manager? Not often. Keep smoking and maybe it will come true.
One other thing......
The bottom three spots in 2005 were Ausmus, Everett and the pitcher. Now what we you saying about not being able to have those spots as sure outs??
I could not agree more about injuries….but every team in baseball can say the same thing.
Who will be the Clemens and Pettitte for 2010?
Also, interesting to see how massive was the turnover in four years. All 8 starting day fielders gone. Only two starting pitchers remain. Any coaches remain?
Anyone know the current status of Brandon Backe’s baseball career?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 17, 2009 2:14 AM CST reply actions
What's the latest on Max Sapp?
I know this is off topic but in trying to find info on Brandon Backe, I saw Max Sapp’s name, but nothing new since June or so. Is he still planning to return to pro baseball?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 17, 2009 2:26 AM CST up reply actions
Well, the 2005 pitching staff was the beneficiary of pretty good defense; Clemens, Pettite, and Oswalt all had very good FIP, but it wasn’t anywhere near as good as their tiny earned run averages would suggest.
We’ve upgraded our defense this off-season, so it’s possible, though unlikely, that the rotation could get overall results nearly as good as in 2005. The 1-3 starters won’t be quite as good even in the best case, but I like the back of the rotation better for 2010.
The reason our ceiling is around 85 wins (as clack said) is the offense. It’s going to be horrible.
Too much emphasis on Clemens and Pettitte
They were both very good but to say that Wandy and Norris can’t combine for similar numbers (2005 #‘s) would be very short sighted. I’m not saying they will….I’m saying they can.
I've
been saying this for 2 years. The ‘05 team is the benchmark against which all future Houston teams will be measured. Here’s my roster spot by spot comparison going into next year:
C Towles v Ausmus- Ausmus is more experienced and a better defender, but I still have hope for Towles. (Advantage ‘05)
1B Berkman v Berkman/Bags- push
2b Matsui v Biggio- Actually more comparable #’swise than you’d think, although Biggio had more pop (Advantage ‘05)
SS Manzella v Everett- I’m going to say push because I have more hope for Manzella’s bat than most.
3B Feliz v Ensberg- Ensberg was an All-Star that year and played above himself. Feliz is a better defender. (Advantage ‘05)
LF Lee v Lamb/Scott- it’s a HUGE (Advantage ‘10)
CF Bourn v Taveras- Similar players, but Bourn brings more to the table (Advantage ’10)
RF Pence v Lane- even though lane had a good ’05, Pence is WAY better in all aspects (Advantage ’10)
Bench Michaels/Q/Blum/Kepp/Bourgeois v Palmeiro/Burke/Chavez/Vizcaino/Bruntlett – I’d take a lot of the ‘10 guys over the ’05 guys, but the #’s say its a push
SP Oswalt v Oswalt- I think last year was a fluke and he’ll bounce back to his old self, so push
SP Wandy v Pettite- If Wandy stays on this trajectory, it’s a push
SP Clemens v Paulino- Like the OP said, THIS is the difference in a nutshell. HUGE (Advantage ‘05)
SP Norris v Backe- HUGE advantage ’10
SP Moehler v Wandy- Wandy was still in his early development, push
SP Wright/etc v Astacio- Astacio was pretty awful, but whoever is the spot starter in ’10 isn’t going to be much better
Middle Relief Byrdak/Sampson/Gervacio v Gallo/Springer/Harville- I see teh ‘10 middle bullpen guys as much better (Advantage ’10)
Back end Arias/Lyon/Lindstrom v Wheeler/Qualls/Lidge- I’m going to get crushed for this, but I see this as close. Haven’t looked deep into the #s but at first glance they are surprisingly comparable.
I’ll just say that I think that is a very optimistic comparison of the 05 and current team by position. Among other things, Ensberg is a HUGE advantage over Feliz. Ensberg had a good defensive season, and was one of the better defensive 3d baseman in the NL that year to go along with numbers that made him the best offensive 3d baseman that year….he also was No. 4 in the NL MVP vote. I don’t think the advantage in LF is as huge as you state; the Astros defense in LF in 2005 was very good, mostly because Burke was the principal LFer for the second half of the season, and was rated as one of the best LF defenders in the league (+24 UZR/150 in LF over 83 games. As for Norris vs. Backe, it isn’t clear to me that the difference is that great. Backe had a 4.76 ERA in 2005; my expectation is that Norris could have a mid- to low- 4’s ERA in 2010.
Right
but how much better is Bourn than Taveras? Pence than Lane? Towles has a chance to be MUCH more productive than Ausmus offensively. What about the bullpen?
Other than the rotation, it would be hard for anyone to convince me that the rest of the roster isn’t comparable.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 17, 2009 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
concerining bourn being better than taveras
Taveras had 592 AB’s in ’05 and walked 25 times. Yikes. His avg was .291 but his OBP was only .325
by robolundgren on Dec 17, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
I didn't know where else to put this
When the Astros signed Pedro Feliz, clack made a post showing Feliz’s OPS stats in “clutch” sorts of situations. I thought I’d repost those stats along with the same stats for Blum so that we could compare:
OPS in Clutch Situations
RISP (Career, 2009)
Feliz: .749, .869
Blum: .704, .769
RISP w/ 2outs (Career, 2009)
Feliz: .769, .879
Blum: .643, .569
Bases Loaded (Career, 2009)
Feliz: .848, .952
Blum: .625, .833
With Men On Base (Career, 2009)
Feliz: .738, .848
Blum: .720, .647
I’m not trying to spark a discussion about whether clutchiness is a repeatable skill or whether RBI is a worthwhile statistical measure. However, it does suggest the potential for significant improvement this year at 3B.
I agree with your post. It is possible.
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Without Questions; There are limited Resources...
even if all that comes to be
still have to jump 4 teams? The cubs have made so moves good or bad its to early to tell. The brewers have improved pitching with wolfe and still could make so moves, The reds won’t have bruce slump as bad, and in general should have some more o with their young pitchers getting healthy. the cards will still win alot of games with carpenter and wainwright leading the staff, and they still are leading the holliday race.
all in all asking alot from a team that had a good second half to win 74 games.
"Chuck Norris CAN divide by zero"
Your points are well taken but............
Allow me to plant these thoughts in your mind.
The cubs have made so moves good or bad its to early to tell.
They have taken a few steps backwards in their pitching. They are hoping for Lilly and Wells to step up. They did add Carlos Silva but he’s very inconsistent. They currently don’t have confidence in their closer (Marmol) and hope to pluck Capps out of free agency and he’s not air tight at all. As of today they don’t have a right fielder. So the jury is still out on the Cubs especially with new ownership.
The brewers have improved pitching with Wolfe and still could make so moves
Before you get to high on what they have done remember. Their set up man is LaTroy Hawkins who was good for us but not great. The Astros wanted him back because he was a cheap replacement for Valverde. They are also putting all their defensive hopes on a questionable middle of the infield. They weren’t very good defensively last season and they haven’t improved. They did get Wolfe but they still have Parra, Bush and Suppan in the rotation. They didn’t exactly go out and get Sabathia and a healthy Ben Sheets. Don’t forget Trevor Hoffman is 42. Will he be healthy all year?
The reds won’t have bruce slump as bad, and in general should have some more o with their young pitchers getting healthy
I agree…..but I don’t expect Berkman to slump as bad either. This is the team I am most worried about but there is a lot of talk about them moving Harang which would put a lot of pressure on some very young pitchers. Good thing for them is when (it’s not an if) their closer Cordero goes down they have 40 year old Arthur Rhodes to fall back on….or is that good for us?? huuuummmmm? They are very talented offensively and if the pitcher perform up to their ability they could win the Central easy.
the cards will still win a lot of games with carpenter and wainwright leading the staff, and they still are leading the Holliday race.
But they still haven’t signed him and I believe that if the Red Sox want him he’s theirs. Sox, Angels, Cardinals in that order for Halliday. Once new years rolls around we’ll know. The Cardinals are being somewhat tight with their money this year so it all depends on just how bad do they want him. No question about their pitching staff as long as it’s healthy. Their problem may be closer and IF they don’t get Holliday other than Pujols where does the offense come from. Offensively, the Astros and Cards are similar. The Cards just have better pitchers.
all in all asking a lot from a team that had a good second half to win 74 games.
We were 1 game out in June and then collapsed. Our problems came from Oswalt’s terrible year, Norris going through injuries and Moehler….well……we had Moehler too high in the rotation and Berkman not being able to get out of his own way.
IF
Paulino busts out and wins double digit games, this team will be above .500. Mark it.




























