Another Fangraphs article mentions Paulino

by clack on Dec 16, 2009 8:37 AM CST

This recent Fangraphs article ("I hate to travel in winter: on Gio Gonzalez and Felipe Paulino") looks at tRA* and tRA to rank starting pitchers' true performance last season. After noting the expected top 10 rankings for pitchers like Lincecum and Carpenter, the article expresses surprise that two young pitchers with bad ERAs last year, Gio Gonzalez and Felipe Paulino, are ranked as 44th and 45th on the starting pitchers list.

Gonzalez and Paulino are virtually identical in tRA* and tRA, which indicates a regressed tRA* of 4.42 for both pitchers. The tRA statistics are (in theory) a more granular version of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), because it takes into account the types of batted balls (line drive, type of flyball, grounder, etc.) hit off the pitcher. The 4.42 result is based on runs allowed, and therefore is substantially higher than the equivalent ERA. The author notes that Gonzalez and Paulino rank higher than big names like Lackey and Lee.

All systems are go for Paulino, according to the article. This is another indication that Felipe Paulino experienced a lot of bad luck last year, and may be poised for improvement next season.The result implies that Paulino could see particular improvement in his results if the defense behind him improves. (You may recall that I wrote an article which concluded the same thing at the end of the season, prior to the various Fangraphs' articles which featured Paulino.) The article provides an opportunity to register a fan projection for Paulino, if you like.

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tRA

for those of you wondering what tRA is here is an article from fangraphs describing it:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-tra/

My assumption is that with FIP it can indicate how hard a pitcher is getting hit, league average being high 4’s. tRA* is expected outs based on the tRA otucome. Correct me if I’m wrong.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 16, 2009 10:06 AM CST reply actions

Thanks for adding this information.

I was in a hurry when I wrote that up, and I should have explained tRA. I edited the post to provide some information on tRA. The tRA* is a regressed version of tRA which provides the stat’s best estimate of the true talent level of a pitcher in a given year. The glossary explanation is here.

by clack on Dec 16, 2009 10:59 AM CST reply actions

That stat corner link is nice, it clears up the definition a little better.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 16, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions

This article

Just affirms what we’ve been saying here about Paulino, crappy luck. It gives some hope for next season, especially if Roy can have a bounce back year, Wandy and Norris continue to develop, Paulino has a breakout year and Moehler continues to do wht he does. The Astros could have one of the better rotations in the league. Unfortunately what could hurt is the lack of depth, if one of the starters goes down it could be a bit tough trying to replace that starter.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 16, 2009 12:42 PM CST reply actions

Looking forward to watching Norris and Paulino

They both have a ton of raw potential. What worries me most about them is not their ability to limit runs but their ability to stay in games. Their K/BB ratios are fine and should also improve, but as strikeout pitchers, they have a tendency to work outside the zone and run up their pitch counts. Nonetheless, they should be very fun to watch while they’re in the game.

by OremLK on Dec 16, 2009 7:02 PM CST reply actions

I hope

that’s all true, because Houston has a LOT riding on Paulino this year.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 17, 2009 11:11 AM CST reply actions

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