CHONE likes Jason Bourgeois, J.R. Towles

by OremLK on Dec 10, 2009 6:32 PM CST

Looking over the 2010 CHONE projections for our hitters, two stood out to me as (if they are true) representing potential substantial upgrades: Jason Bourgeois and J.R. Towles. I thought it would be interesting to discuss these projections, and particularly, the likelihood of Bourgeois starting at second base for the Astros in 2010.

Here are the projections:

Jason Bourgeois:

.281/.326/.399

J.R. Towles:

.252/.332/.409

It's growing pretty obvious that Towles will join Quintero in taking on catching duties next season, so if this projection is true, we could be in line for a significant offensive upgrade at the position.

More questionable is Bourgeois. I know he's spent time at shortstop and second base in the minors, but I couldn't find much discussion on his defense at 2B in some cursory searches. Does anybody know whether his glove is up to par to the point where he could start at the position? To compare his projected line above with Matsui's, by the way...

Kazuo Matsui

.255/.314/.364

As you can see, CHONE projects a pretty significant improvement over Kaz, offensively.

Any thoughts?

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Towles

They need to give him some time to get adjusted, and I just don’t know if the Astros have the patience to allow Towles to develop.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 11, 2009 7:21 AM CST reply actions

The Astros seemed to think that Bourgeois could play 2d base in a pinch, perhaps viewing him as a Newhan type player who can pinch hit and move between the OF and 2d base as switches are made. I doubt that he is defensively capable of starting at 2d base at this point. His last playing time at 2d base was two years ago, and he was -6 runs at AAA. Given that an organization would tend to keep Bourgeois at 2d base, because he is more valuable there, I have to think that the Brewers concluded that this defense at 2d base wasn’t good enough. As a practical matter, the only way something like this happens is if Matsui injures himself (not unusual) and Borgeois happens to distinguish himself in playing time there. Wade has already said Matsui is the starter at 2d base. The Astros are not going to put Matsui’s salary on the bench.

by clack on Dec 11, 2009 7:56 AM CST reply actions

By the way, it would be nice if Bourgeois can achieve the CHONE projection. However, his MLE OPS in AAA last year was .648. It’s certainly no certainty that he can produce an OPS above .700 if he makes the team. I think Bourgeois has a good chance of making the team as a reserve outfielder, so we probably will get a chance to see if Bourgeois can produce at the CHONE level.

by clack on Dec 11, 2009 8:02 AM CST up reply actions

You’d assume that Keppinger would be the reserve 2B if Matusi goes on the injury list.

by Timothy De Block on Dec 11, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions

I wasn’t very clear on my speculation. I do assume that Keppinger is the main back up for Matsui. I was trying to think of a scenario where Bourgeois could become the starter…and it’s a slim chance. I meant to convey this scenario: Matsui goes down and Bourgeois gets some playing time at 2d (because of match ups, etc. for Keppinger), and then he excels so well that he is difficult to take out of the lineup. (I assume that Mills isn’t quite the same as Cooper, who would put a hot hitting rookie on the bench, not matter what.)

by clack on Dec 11, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions

Also, Keppinger’s defense at 2B is iffy as well, and he doesn’t hit well against RHP.

by OremLK on Dec 11, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions

JB - don't want to spell that name

was cut loose by the White Sox. Last year was his only time with the Brewers. Looking at B-R, it looks like he was a former 2b/SS and FWIW seems to have a fair number of errors over there. He looked quite competent in the outfield in the brief glimpse I saw. He’s obviously not a power guy, but mixing in speed guys who can get on base is a good formula IMO. I guess the question is whether he can get on base in the majors. I’d say he can play backup at all 3 OF positions. I’d think he could fake it at 2nd in small doses. I like him as a player – he’s probably cursed.

by ol Pete on Dec 12, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions

John Buck may be non-tendered today by the Royals.

Question: Would you want the Astros to consider signing Buck to share time at catcher?

My initial reaction is “probably, no,” but I go back and forth on the idea. The main thing to like about it: a Towles/Buck platoon might actually produce decent offense out of the catcher position. (I’m assuming Q is gone, if Buck were to be signed…but I’m not sure the Astros would see it that way.) And that’s the only reason I would even think about this move: the Astros need to add offense desperately, anywhere they can.

Cons: Buck is a worse defensive catcher than either Towles or Quintero. Buck will probably be able to demand $3 – $4 million, if he is cut loose by the Royals. I’m not sure Wade has the money to spend, nor am I certain that would be a good investment, when the Astros have Castro waiting in AAA.

As a practical matter, Buck is probably priced outside of the Astros’ limited budget.

by clack on Dec 12, 2009 12:28 PM CST reply actions

I'm fine with Towles/Quintero.

Kevin Correia strikes me as an interesting SP option, however. Let’s all be thankful we don’t have the Padres’ payroll—they will wind up non-tendering or trading him today, despite the fact that he’s young, inexpensive, and productive.

by OremLK on Dec 12, 2009 1:35 PM CST up reply actions

Correia most likely will be traded, from what I read.

by clack on Dec 12, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions

I’m sure they’ll try… question is does anybody want him bad enough, or will everybody count on him being non-tendered?

If we could get him for a bag of baseballs like we did Lindstrom (unlikely, since Correia is coming off a good year) it’d be a good move, I think. He’d be a solid #4 starter and we could push Moehler out of the rotation into the bullpen where he belongs.

by OremLK on Dec 12, 2009 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

Why wouldn’t the Padres trade him for very little if the alternative is non-tender? I suppose if the trade is for a bag of balls, they might decide that they would just as well reward the young man and make him a free agent. However, they wouldn’t be able to control whether he goes to a division rival in that scenario (the Dodgers are among the teams interested in signing him).

by clack on Dec 12, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

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