and about four million dollars. Stick Johnson’s slightly better numbers in there, save four million, do not sign Lyon, save five million and SIGN A FA SP FOR 9 MILLION!!!

Maybe we’ll get a third source of projections when ZIPS gets to Johnson. Johnson’s MLE from his Round Rock period shows a major league equivalent OPS in the .650 range. I think Johnson has to show a lot more plate discipline (either higher walks or lower Ks) to demonstrate that he can advance from AAA to the majors. If Johnson had Feliz’s defensive ability, it might be more reasonable to advance him. But that is also something that Johnson needs to work on.

It’s definitely a risk, but it’s a cost effective list. The reason why Feliz and other free agents want to sign before the non-tendered deadline is because more players in the pool, in theory, would force them to drop their asking price. The Astros aren’t going to contend next year I see no reason why the Stro have to rush to sign players now.

What I don’t like about those ideas, from the Astros’ perspective: Lowe is overpaid and Berkman is not. For next year, it is more likely that Berkman justifies his salary than Lowe. And you extend the overhang of large contracts, since you exchange a contract which terminates in 2010 for a contract which terminates in 2012. Now, if you trade Lee for Lowe, I think it would be more reasonable, since both contracts expire in 2012. However, neither Lee or Berkman will approve the trade, so it’s not worth a lot of thinking.

I think the Astros FO thought that no one would give Hawk a 2-year deal, and the one-year-plus-option deal at $4M would be the high bid without offering arbitration. If so, that was a miscalculation, but a reasonable mistake to make…Hawk is going into his age 37 season and has been living on one-year deals since 2004.

Don’t forget, though, that Hawkins was a type A. I seriously doubt the Brewers would have signed him if it would have cost them draft picks. And offering Hawk arbitration with an offer already on the table would have come across to Hawk and his agent as bad-faith negotiating, since it would have dealt a serious blow to Hawk’s market value as a free agent. There’s no sense in ticking him off if you’re going to bring him back on the team. Offering him arbitration would have been a flat-out cutthroat negotiation move, and the Astros don’t need that reputation when they are living and dying based on free agent deals.