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Ed Wade gets his relievers, but what did the Astros get?

So an hour or so ago I said that I would have to wait until tomorrow to process the day's events, but I lied. A solid hour of tossing and turning while visions of mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers danced in my head lead me back to my laptop.  Mediocre relief pitchers parading as closers, that's kind of what we got today.  Not so much in Lindstrom, but definitely in Lyon.  Now I can't help but think Dave Cameron is being a little hyperbolic in his assessment of Brandon Lyon, but everything he says is correct.  Lyon isn't good. Period.

He's average in every respect.  Compare him to anyone else already in the Astros bullpen and you'd lose him in the haze of mediocre total-skill sets. Alberto Arias and Chris Sampson have high ground ball percentages.  Jeff Fulchino is just a clydesdale that is dependable.  Matt Lindstrom has life his is stuff that portends to better things to come. Sammy Gervacio has an awesome delivery that gives him difficult to distinguish stuff.  Brandon Lyon literally is average in every respect.  Pick a stat or a trait. Look at it. It'll be average.

Lyon will definitely go down as a not good signing.  Will it ever be a signing that's cited more than two years after the contract is completed? No. Carlos Lee was a bad signing, so was Barry Zito.  Lyon is just a poor signing—for the Astros.  If any other team inked Lyon to this deal, it probably wouldn't resonate as much as it does right now. There's the Ed Wade loves relief pitching too much factor. There's the luck inflated ERA factor (thank God they're upgrading defense a SS, we think). And there's the this team doesn't have the payroll flexibility to afford this factor.  Those three factors make this signing laughable to outsiders and repugnant to Astros fans.

But I don't think it's bad because of in 2011 and 2012, just 2010. We never had enough money to start with this winter.  Ed Wade had just made a pretty savvy little trade with the Florida Marlins to bring in someone who would add depth to a bullpen that didn't need a closer because the Astros won't be good enough to justify needing a true closer, much less over paying for one (which they didn't even end up doing).  

Really, he could have just stopped there.  I would have continued to actually be content and happy with the state of this team for at least a few hours.  And then the malaise of being an Astros fan could have set back in when I realized I was happy not because my team had gotten better, but because my team didn't do anything to make themselves measurably worse off.  

But now it appears as though they have.

Can we afford Miguel Tejada back? Nope. Can we—realistically—afford a worthwhile fill in at 3B? Probably not. At this point, offering LaTroy Hawkins arbitration has never looked so good to me.

Now, I'm left wondering the following questions: Why did we have to move so fast to sign a relief pitcher who could be a closer? There were still options out there; we didn't really even need someone else (i.e. another closer-esque reliever is a luxury, not a necessity).  Why move so fast on Lyon and offer him everything he wanted? Why not try to whittle him down in price or years (preferably price, but only scantly)? What will Ed Wade use to justify Lyon versus someone with promise and an ability to add worthwhile value to the team...like say Mike Gonzalez?

(Please don't let it be his 2009 ERA, please, please, please, please don't. I won't be able to take it. Something of mine will break after I hurl it against something if I awake to an Ed Wade quote about Lyon's ERA.)

For a brief moment it felt like the Astros had faced the reality of their situation: they have to stop pretending they are contenders.  Lindstrom was a savvy trade to provide a cost-controlled insurance for the backend of the bullpen for the next few years.  It allowed us wiggle room to try and fill in other gaps that could actually have placed us in the faint pale of the glow of contenders.  After that trade I smiled because I was proud of Ed Wade. He'd made a move that was exactly what this team needed.

But now, with Lyon inked for too much, we're hamstrung.  It's like Ed Wade is waiving the white flag on finding help at 3B or SP and figured he'd roll the dice on Lyon and see what happened.  It's ilke he's forgotten that things like signing Joel Pinero late in the game can make the a huge difference, if you have the money to do it at the time. Or he's forgotten about all the players who signed late in the ball game at just about every position last year, too.

If you haven't picked up on the meme of this post, it's that I can't figure this deal out.  It's really not a terrible deal for any team that has payroll flexibility and a total dearth of options for their bull pen.  But for the Astros—especially after the Lindstrom trade—Ed Wade dropped the ball in a big way.  Yes, Lyon might bounce back to his 2008 control and have his 2009 strand-rate and BABIP, but why gamble one-half to one-third of your budget on it?

To answer this post's title: The Astros got nothing the needed, just something a few in the front office might have wanted.  Now they're left wanting things that can't afford.  So, I guess they got screwed hamstrung.  There's really nothing about Lyon's signing that can bring cause to justify it.  There was a lot in the Lindstrom trade, but that's been buried under the mountain of inanity that is three years and fifteen million dollars for Lyon.

Of course, we also have yet to hear the final word on Lyon's deal.  So maybe myself, Dave Cameron, and just about every baseball person I follow on Twitter will be eating crow tomorrow...or so I can hope.

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Three words:

Brad Arnsberg project.

Fun being a fan!

by hunterpencefan on Dec 10, 2009 3:05 AM CST reply actions  

3 years, 15 million

for a project?

I mean, I agree – that’s the only way you can spin this (and Clack did a good job of it below, too) to make it seem palatable, but this just doesn’t make any sense to me, even if you’re right.

Have the actual details of the contract been released? I’m just hoping against hope here, but maybe it’s just incentive and team-option laden.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 10, 2009 9:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Highly unlikely it’s incentive or option based, Lyon made around $4.25mil last year.

by timmy_ on Dec 10, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

You might have to take up meditation to deal with this stuff, DQ.

Dave Cameron lashes out at Ed Wade for only looking at Lyon’s most recent year ERA in making his decision. And, in a previous post, I also said this looks like a GM relying upon the ERA and ignoring the FIP. But I really don’t think that is what happened.

First, the Lindstrom deal looks like a GM who paid no attention to the recent ERA. In fact, that is one reason some people thought Wade was showing some smarts in that trade. Second, we know that Wade doesn’t put much weight on stats in his decisions. For better or worse, Ed Wade is not a sabermetric GM. We know that he believes scouting reports are the most important factor in decisions. (Recall his old quotes about preferring “boots on the ground” to statistics.) I think he didn’t rely on ERA, FIP or any other stat in the Lindstrom and Lyon decisions.

So, I am assuming that some Astros’ scout or scouts out there watched Lyon and really like him. Among the scathing comments to the Cameron article is one contrarian comment from a Detroit fan who says he watched Lyon all season and he really is better than his stats. The fan said he was able to induce weak contact early in counts, and points out that he added an effective cutter to his repertoire last year. True or not? I don’t know but that is a form of scouting report. At this point, we have to hope that Wade’s scouting reports have picked up something which don’t show up in the stats. As a stat—oriented person, I throw this out to provide a glimmer of hope.

by clack on Dec 10, 2009 7:58 AM CST reply actions  

Meditation probably wouldn't be a bad idea

I agree that Ed Wade’s reliance on scouting reports has served him well in the past, for us, so I guess I should wait to see what the spin on Lyon is. However, I’m still struck by the fact that this effectively ends the meaningful part of our offseason because the rest of the money has to be allocated now to just filling out the bench. Why do that to ourselves on Dec. 9? Lyon’s scouting reports couldn’t have been that special.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Dec 10, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree with clack here, DQ. Take a page from the Phil Garner playbook and don’t get too low after a disappointment. Even though I’m a stat guy myself, I still put good value on eyeball scouting. One of the things the stat guys don’t discuss is how much Lyon changed his pitch-mix last season. He went from using his slider 2%-5% of the time to almost 19% of the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arnsberg, after playing in the same division as Lyon last year, ID’d him as a guy with upside with the new pitch mix.

Ed Wade has a good track record on relievers with the Astros…his only “missteps” have been bringing back Brocail and the Villareal extension. The talking heads didn’t think the Hawkins or Wolf signings were good two seasons ago, and they were very wrong. I was wrong about how useful Fulchino could be. Let’s give the players a chance to play before we decide too much.

As for contract details, we’re not much more hamstrung than we would have been signing Hawkins at $4M (or Valverde or Tejada for more). And there’s value in the certainty of his contract (which wouldn’t have been the case had there been accepted arbitration offers). If you figure $93M as the target budget, how much room do we have left?

Also, it’s lazy analysis to invoke the Ed Wade-as-bullpen-tinkerer trope. We just had three pieces of our bullpen leave (Valverde, Hawkins, Brocail), and those spots needed to be filled. That’s not tinkering…that’s making sure there are 25 men on your 25 man roster.

by AstroAndy on Dec 10, 2009 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Lyon isn’t a bad addition, what makes him a bad addition is the contract he was given. Adding bad contracts to a team that already has a majority of it’s payroll invested into a handful of players sets the organization back.

by timmy_ on Dec 10, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

I see your points

But at no point with any of those other signings did we commit so much for so long. They were just rolls of the dice. But this deal is three years for the hope that his new pitch mix sustains. LIke I said, I don’t think this is bad, just not what the Astros needed to do—especially not right now. It’s December 10th, I think Ed Wade could have surveyed the landscape, negotiated, etc.

Lyon might be worth every penny, but I still see this as surplus signing that wasn’t exactly necessary, and definitely not necessary on December 9th, 2009.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Dec 10, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

To the point about the money

I guess we’re not hamstrung entirely, but Lyon has eliminated a lot of possibilities off the board for us. There are only six or seven million left to get the pieces that we need. I guess my whole deal is that I don’t agree with the allocation of money here. I feel like there could be more value gained from signing a average 3B, than an average reliever. Now, I’m not so sure we get that average 3B.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Dec 10, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Let's not undersell Lyon's effectiveness.

Cameron comes up with very low value numbers to say that the Astros overpaid by $10 M or something. But he is simply extrapolating FIP with no recognition of leverage—-that is just a bad analysis for placing a value on relievers (I know, I have mentioned this as a criticism of WAR, and I recently saw a Fangraphs’ article admitting that leverage probably should be—but isn’t— recognized in WAR).

ZIPS projects Lyon with a 118 ERA+ over 70 innings as a Detroit Tiger in 2010. He is the best relief pitcher on the Tigers’ roster, according to ZIPS. ZIPS projects Lyon as a significantly more effective pitcher than the Tigers’ closer, Fernando Rodney. ZIPS projects less than 1 HR per 9 IP. The adjustment for ballpark needs to be made; but the adjustment for changing leagues will probably overshadow the change in ballparks.

by clack on Dec 10, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Symborski updated Lyon's stats for change in park and league.

Lyon’s ERA+ increases to 121 in 2010 and stays at 118 in 2011 and 2012.

That’s not bad. And, although Symborski hates the signing, he admits Lyon is a good, not great, relief pitcher. Symborski takes a bunch of shots at Wade (it’s pretty funny stuff, actually). Symborski’s problem with the trade is that he thinks the Astros are such a bad team that they shouldn’t be spending money on relief pitchers. I understand the point.

by clack on Dec 10, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

This reminds me of the Linebrink deal

He’s not a bad reliever, he’s just not worth $5mil especially over three years, and in this case I would of rather had Hawkins for two years at $7.5mil. Who knows though, Lyon is entering the prime of his career so maybe their is some hope for the future.

by timmy_ on Dec 10, 2009 7:59 AM CST reply actions  

First things first ...

Off Ed Wade! Wade showed how he knows players, ability and what a man he was last season not only with the team record and but with Chacon. Bad speculation on players brought in, pitchers like Wolf gone … and a loud mouthed d-bag who thinks he can play punk with players. Be gone Ed!

Artyboy

by Arty Lunch on Dec 10, 2009 10:07 AM CST reply actions  

He’s also brought in players such as Bourn, Wright, Fulchino, Arias, and Tejada.

by timmy_ on Dec 10, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions  

All I know

is that more pressure has just been put on Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris.

The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.

by Evan Hochschild on Dec 10, 2009 10:23 AM CST reply actions  

It'll work out

I dunno. I’m not crazy about the Lyon’s deal, but I’d rather give up 3 years $15 million to a decent relief pitcher who has had some success than go after a player like Chone Figgins or someone else. I think you have to remember our short term/long term goals and too often we get these confused bc of our emotions about what we want right now. The Astros are going to suck, but they’re off on the right foot… We say we don’t want any pitcher reclamations or anything, so we’re not going to add any starting pitchers. Personally, I don’t think we have a terrible rotation, but I can understand Wade loading up on relief pitchers just in case our starters can’t go long… this is a bandaid. We say we want to see our youngsters play, not get rid of our top prospects and don’t want to be tied up in any more big contracts right now, so we’re not going to sign or trade for any big names. Oh well. I do hope we can add a 3B but probably someone that someone else let go… like the yankess old 3B prospect that never panned out, but either way… oh well.

by GhostOfGlennDavis on Dec 10, 2009 10:26 AM CST reply actions  

Looking at the FanGraphs comments

The reaction hasn’t been as hyperbolistic as Cameron’s post. Sure, it wasn’t a smart move, but considering how 24 hours ago we were all prepared to have LaTroy Hawkins return at $5 million dollars a season, I wouldn’t call this the worst move ever. Wade overpaid, but I think Lyon will be better than LaTroy next season, and Lyon will be 30-32 years old for this deal not 37, 38 like Hawkins. Yea, maybe we all were optimistic that a leopard could change his spots, but this is what Ed Wade does. Maybe I should be more pissed off, but I’m just not.

The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.

by Evan Hochschild on Dec 10, 2009 10:58 AM CST reply actions  

It's

not as bad as you’re putting it. Lyon has experience closing. I think we overpaid, but there still appears to be ~$6M remaining. Wade’s roster list was set long ago: 2 relievers, a 3B, and a 4th OF. Once those positions are filled, mine the scrap heap for another infielder, a 5th outfielder, and starting pitching. So, in essence, Wade has $6M to spend on a 3B and a 4th OF. I think we’ll sign Feliz for $5M, and bring in a vet OF in the Erstad mold for $1M. As always, this team’s weakness will be in the rotation and bottom of the lineup. They can contend IF:

-Paulino finally shows he is a capable major league starting pitcher.
-Norris continues to develop and shows he is a #3.
-Roy rebounds.
-Wandy keeps progressing.
-Towles or Castro provides consistent offense at Catcher.
-Mastui, Berkman, and Lee rebound.
-Bourn and Pence continue to improve.

That’s a LOT of ifs.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 10, 2009 11:06 AM CST reply actions  

Quick math:

Payroll 2009, $108 million
Payroll 2010, around $93 million

Probable $ allocated to Valverde/LaTroy in 2010: $12-$14 million combined
$ for Lindstrom/Lyon: $$6.5-$7 million

Miggy isn’t coming back. Wandy, Pence are due raises via arbitration.

There still seems like there is a little bit of money to spend on a reclamation project for a starting pitcher. Maybe.

The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.

by Evan Hochschild on Dec 10, 2009 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

I think there is room for a 3d baseman if the Astros get lucky on salary. I also expect reclamation projects for $1 M or less on the starting pitcher side. Astros are rumored to be interested in Escobar. As far as third basemen, the Astros are supposedly interested in Pedro Feliz. That would be an improvement over what we have.

by clack on Dec 10, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

You can’t compare free agent salaries with team control arbitration salaries….they don’t work on the same scale and aren’t meant to be comparable. I suspect that Wandy gets $5 – $6 million. He probably would get $8 or $9 million if he were a free agent.

by clack on Dec 10, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Considering the predictions on Wandy I've read

were in the $4 to 4.5 Million range, the Lyon signing may have resulted in a million dollar or so extra for Wandy.

For comparison purposes, my raise this year was 0.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 10, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

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