The Astros and Arbitration: The annual non-sensical decision
by Stephen Higdon on Dec 1, 2009 4:17 PM CST
in Hot Stove
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PrintI don't want to come off as too persnickety, I know that Ed Wade took a bold step forward this afternoon when he sent Jose Valverde an arbitration offer. Great, grand, wonderful. But here's the thing, Valverde's not going to accept that offer. I think that's been a foregone conclusion for just about every observer of Valverde's free agency. So yes, I'm happy we'll be netting some kind of first round compensation pick, but I'm not happy that we'll now be forced to either overpay or lose out on LaTroy Hawkins.
Why will we have to do this? Because this is a team without a closer and a GM who loves relief pitching. So either Ed Wade accepts his fate and rolls the dice on in house options. I don't know which it'll be, but I'm not pleased with either end result (unless one of our in house options set's the NL on fire in 2010).
This will be the decision of this year's free agent crop I will not understand. LaTroy Hawkins is a good—not great—late inning relief pitcher who could easily slot into a closer-eque position for this team and provide serviceable work on our mediocre-to-below-mediocre team at a relatively reasonable cost. That is, if other teams don't try and overpay him for the same role or even just as their eighth-inning guy.
Prior to a few hours ago, Hawkins was a questionable free-agent to invest in because of the detrimental Type-A tag hanging off his right arm. All Ed Wade had to do was explain to Drayton McLane is that by not offering Hawkins arbitration, he'd start hearing sizable offers that the Astros, or really any rational actor, likely cannot prudently match. Or that with an arbitration offer the Astros would get one of two results: teams become gun-shy due to the draft picks if Hawkins declines it, or the Astros get Hawkins back for probably no more than $4 million for one year if they go to arbitration.
Who, upon seeing that logic, says no to that?
So either Drayton McLane is wholly illogical, or Ed Wade did not frame this decision very well to his boss. One of the two. But now there's no going back on this one and I think we'll see an interesting race to overpay for guys on the fringe of closer (like Hawkins, Gregg, and Sherril) as the hot stove heats up.
People on the short list of being happy with this news are:
- LaTroy Hawkins' agent (bigger cut)
- The Boston Red Sox (my pick for who signs Hawkins)
- Jeff Fulchino, Chris Sampson, Alberto Arias (all possible closers in waiting)
If a team is assessing their actual risk as the full potential salary that they would have to pay out if a player accepts, they’ll be overstating their own liability and miscalculating the costs and benefits of an arbitration offer. I would suspect we will see multiple teams do just this tomorrow, leaving value on the table by being overly risk averse. [emphasis added]
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Tim Dierkes at mlbtraderumors.com suggested that perhaps the Astros didn’t want to muddy up the waters with arbitration if the team already has an offer sitting there for Hawkins. I suppose that could be the case. If the Astros think they are fairly close to signing Hawkins already, then maybe this makes sense. Giving Wade the benefit of the doubt, maybe he thinks that this move will be appreciated by Hawkins as a show of good faith and improve the chances of getting him to agree to the outstanding offer. Of course, I could construct the opposite scenario that this will be regarded by Hawkins as a rejection by the Astros. In any event, it is a bit mystifying.
That's the only thing I can figure
I assume they’re already close to a team-friendly deal otherwise this makes no sense whatsoever. Still, I have a hard time believing that whatever deal they’re coming to would be better than the price we’d get if we offered arbitration.
If the Astros are close to signing Hawkins
you can bet someone called him (or his Agent) to be sure Hawkins does not misinterpret his not being offered arbitration.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 1, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions
I do wish that Hawkins would have been offered.
I suppose there is some sense to it but that could have been huge to possibly net 4 draft picks. I mean hello having 6 draft picks in the first 2 rounds. We could still be cheap and that’d likely work out well for us.
we better hope
Valverde doesn’t accept. He’ll likely get $9.5M. That would put committed payroll at $90M with holes at SS/3B, 4th and 5th OF, and starting pitcher. Ouch.
Hopefully, he’ll decline, we’ll get a add’l 1st rounder, sign Tejada, Hawkins, Duchsherer, and Zaun, and have a competitive team.
Agreed
If Valverde does accept which I think is very very very improbable then we are pretty screwed and hopefully Drayton will realize that he needs to go a little more than $90 mill. We’d almost have to trade Valverde away at some point next season so they’ll pick up the rest of his salary.
I think you are probably a bit high on what Valverde will get in arbitration. Even if Valverde accepts arbitration, I don’t think it’s such a bad thing. I think he might get $8 million in arbitration, which wouldn’t be terrible. Otherwise the Astros will acquire a free agent to serve as closer, and the differential with Valverde accepting arbitration might be $3 or $4 million.
We aren't getting a starting pitcher
That’s what I’ve taken from Wade’s comments. I’ve pretty much accepted that we’re going to be looking at Oswalt/Rodriguez/Norris/Paulino/Moehler. Bourgeois or some other MLB minimum option will probably be fourth outfielder. Manzella will be the shortstop. If the payroll is $95 million that still leaves a little room for Tejada or a different 3B.
Don't forget Wesley Wright
as possible starter
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 1, 2009 8:35 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it’ll either be Paulino or him. My money (and hopes) are on Paulino, but Wright would be okay too if he controls the walks better.
BOTH
While realities are that Wright will need some time at AAA to work as a starter to get a chance to face better hitting than what he is probably facing in the winter leagues, i wouldn’t mind both getting a shot if they both perform well in spring training and moehler get pushed to the bullpen as a swingman/long reliever
Eh
It’s not like the Astros are going anywhere and no one would pay Hawkins what he’d probably make in arbitration… if we’re trying to save money I say just cut him loose. We have a lot of depth at relief pitcher. I’d rather see that money go into the draft.
by GhostOfGlennDavis on Dec 1, 2009 4:49 PM CST reply actions
This all could of been avoided
If they had been traded =P
sorry I couldn’t help myself
by Timothy De Block on Dec 1, 2009 9:15 PM CST reply actions
Clack: Didn’t Valverde make 8mill this year. I am willing to bet he gets a raise. Even though he was hurt, he still had a good year. I don’t think the 9-9.5mill is an innacurate figure.
On the Hawkins deal, all I can hope is we have a plan in place to make sure he sign quick. I would hate to lose him, especially now.
by StaffSgtStrosFan on Dec 2, 2009 8:42 AM CST reply actions
Yes, he made $8 million last year. But, for free agents (unlike arb-eligible players), arbitration does not guarantee a pay raise. I would guess that an arbitrator would look at simple stats like innings pitched and number of saves to evaluate the player….and Valverde’s injury would cost him with respect to those stats. The arbitrator will also look at comparable player salaries, and those have been declining. I wouldn’t be surprised if Valverde gets essentially the same as he made last year. But most of these arbitrations are settled, and even if Valverde might actually get a higher figure going to arbitration, his agent would be taking a substantial risk of getting a much lower number (say, $6 million, if that’s the Astros’ offer). My thought is based on guessing what the Astros might offer and what Valverde will propose, and assuming that the actual result will be in the middle (since that is what happens with most settlements of arbitration. Valverde could take a risk at getting a much higher number…and end up getting traded.
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