The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition
by David Coleman on Nov 9, 2009 7:00 AM CST
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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?
The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?
It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?
The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.
It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...
GM Jim Hendry
Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)
Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.
This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.
Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.
Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.
GM Walt Jocketty
Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)
Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.
The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.
GM Doug Melvin
Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)
Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.
All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.
Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.
GM Neil Huntington
Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)
Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.
Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.
GM John Mozeliak
Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)
Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.
There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.
There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).
GM Ed Wade
Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)
Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.
If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.
Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.
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Some thoughts on the GMs....
I’m not sure I buy the popular view that the Pirates’ GM is that much better than the past. Of course, I could be proven wrong in the future…but I’m in a “show me” attitude. The previous Pirates’ front office made some good trades. Talk about Jason Bay…the Pirates basically stole him from the Padres. Freddy Sanchez was acquired out of the Red Sox organization, and that was a good trade. The common complaint against the Pirates is that they dump players when they become good. I hated the way that the Cubs got Aramis Ramirez from the Pirates for a song (by the way, the Pirates offered him to the Astros, and Hunsicker declined). But supposedly this was forced on the GM by ownership, which ordered the GM to cut costs by getting rid of the highest cost players. Huntington dumped a pretty good nucleus of players this season (Morgan, Sanchez, Wilson), and one could argue they should try keeping their mature nucleus together and addi payroll to build a contending team. But presumably a $80 or $90 million payroll isn’t in the cards, so the Pirates continually have to turn over their good players when they reach maturation rather than building a contending team around them. The problem with payroll limited teams like the Pirates is that they have to hope for a tsunami of good prospects to all arrive at the same time and reach their peak early and at the same time. That’s hard to do; in fact, it requires a lot of luck. Instead the Pirates have to keep trading their good players because the timing isn’t good and they can’t affordd to keep them.
I would say that the Cardinals have the most sabermetric front office, and that is due to Luhnow, who is VP over scouting and the minor leagues. Luhnow is a non-baseball person who was an executive for corporate planning in the real business world, and was brought in by the owner to apply real MBA type practices to building a baseball team. Horror of horrors, he actually studied the best fantasy baseball experts when he joined the Cards. Jocketty and Luhnow couldn’t get along, and Jocketty left. Mozeliak seems to be a traditional baseball guy who is willing to work with and listen to the stat-types who are in Luhnow’s side of the front office. FWIW, Mozeliak interviewed for the Astros’ GM job, before Wade got it.
Playing devil’s advocate on the some of the Phillies’ trades under Wade, one could argue that the Rolen trade was caused by a bad manager selection decision (Bowa). Rolen hated Bowa so much, he insisted on a trade. Given that everyone knew Wade didn’t have much leverage, Polanco and Bud Smith wasn’t a terrible haul at the time. Smith was a top pitching prospect who had just pitched a no hitter as a Cardinals’ rookie; he was a very valuable trading commodity…who would suffer an arm injury. The Schilling trade is bad, but wasn’t that a salary dump (I can’t recall)? The Milton trade wasn’t that bad; he was reasonably decent as a Phillies pitcher (his bad years would come with the Reds), and Punto and Silva are pretty mediocre. Most of Wade’s bad reputation comes from his relief pitcher tinkering. The only good thing you can say is that he keeps tinkering until he gets a bullpen which works.
I like your idea about signing Towers or DePodesta as special assistants. Don’t know if they would do it…Theo Epstein offered them jobs with the Red Sox, and I don’t think they took them. Of course, Wade did work with both of them in San Diego, which might help with the idea.
by clack on Nov 9, 2009 9:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Ken Davidoff for stealing my idea…Does it make things scarier that Doug Melvin is listed as the fourth-best GM in the game? Or is this all just arbitratry list-making to fill the offseason hours?
by David Coleman on Nov 9, 2009 11:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah, writers are trying to fill the offseason hours. Lists like this are all so subjective. I think he has Melvin rated too high. I would probably switch the positions of Ken Williams and Melvin (or perhaps even move Melvin lower than that). I have to admit that you can make arguments that Williams had made some bad trades which should put him lower. But I have some admiration for Williams’ ability to make big gambling moves. He’s got guts. It’s funny how the popular thinking about these GMs changes. I can recall when O’Dowd was on the bottom of every GM list, and he was pilloried as an illustration of the stupidity of GMs. Now he is relative high up on Davidoff’s list, and it is hard to argue with putting him there. I would probably rate Epstein as No.1, but that’s not much of a complaint when Davidoff has him No. 3.
by clack on Nov 9, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s funny….I used your link to read Davidoff’s rankings, and when I went back to look at it again, the article was gone…or at least had gone to a “behind the wall” registration.
by clack on Nov 9, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Ed Wade commentary is unfair
Different organization and you’re looking at it at this point and time and not at the time the trade was made as Clack pointed out on several of his moves.
As for his time in Houston He’s done a fairly good job with the trades he has done in Houston, a year ago the Bourn for Lidge trade was looking bad, but now it’s tilted the other way, Geary was good for a year and Mike Constanza was used in getting Miguel Tejada. The Miguel Tejada trade was done without any high rated prospects and at the time was called by one analyst “a grab bag of prospects”. Hawkins was gotten for a backup infielder. The Drew Sutton trade while controversial, let’s be honest it was a backup for backup swap and I think the Astros came out slightly ahead on that deal. He’s also done wonders on the waiver wire particularly for the bullpen, Arias, Fulchino, Sarafate(SP? also used in the Tejada deal).
A far cry from Purpura who traded away Wheeler, and Zorbist for half a year of Huff and one and a half of Wigginton.
Huntington and the Bay trade he was essentially at the mercy of how well Andy LaRoche would do with some starting time (and still might develop). At the time I read a couple articles from BP that discussed how Andy LaRoche should of been given more opportunities as the starting 3B for the Dodgers. Andy LaRoche was no scrub prospect at the time of the deal.
None of the other GM’s really worry me all that much, it’s more the payrolls they have.
Am I missing something with the Chris Duncan trade? Was he not panning out and the GM made a change of scenery move? or does Dave Duncan not realize baseball is a business after being in it for so long?
by timmy_ on Nov 9, 2009 12:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
But, see, here’s the thing. You HAVE to look at trade in hindsight and not in the moment. That’s the only way we know anything about how they pan out. Sure, Bud Smith seemed like a great prospect, but obviously there were problems there. It didn’t work out and the Phillies were left with little in return for one of the best third baseman of the past 20 years.
At the time, Purpura’s trade for Huff wasn’t that big a move, since neither Albers nor Zobrist were highly regarded. Now, of course, it looks even worse since Zorilla has exploded the past two seasons.
I also didn’t mean to imply I think Wade isn’t a good GM. I just think he needs someone to help with his decision-making process on trades. Sure, Schilling was a salary dump, but he was still very valuable. A good GM should get the best talent for a given player. That seems to be Wade’s biggest shortcoming and is something I think can be fixed.
by David Coleman on Nov 9, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But we don’t know what he has and hasn’t taken away from his experience in Philly. When someone get’s fired, wouldn’t you think they have a reflection period on what they did to get fired?
Ed Wade could of very well made adjustments in his philosophy, which is why I think it’s unfair to criticize him for his moves in another organization. For all we know he may of picked up “sabermetrics for dummy” and applied that to his philosophy.
by timmy_ on Nov 9, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Zobrist
I did in fact look at Zobrist’s stats back when he was in the farm system and from my analysis he looked like he could be a starting position player.
His numbers are outstanding up to 2006 in the Astros organization.
by timmy_ on Nov 9, 2009 2:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t implying that you didn’t look up Zobrist, just that he wasn’t that highly regarded. I think he was listed in the low 20’s in Baseball America’s prospect list the year he was traded. They valued his walk rate (which made him one of my favorite guys), but the fact he was so old for his league devalued him. Of course, he was only old for his league because he was old when he was drafted and the Astros took their time in promoting him. If anything, his case should make us look harder on how we view rookies in any deal.
I think Wade may have taken quite a deal from his time in Philly. As I mentioned, he’s hit on as many trades in two years with the Astros as he did in his entire Philadelphia tenure. That still makes me a little nervous though, and maybe it shouldn’t. He very well could have learned from past mistakes and be a better GM for it. We won’t know till we have more data on his Astros tenure.
by David Coleman on Nov 9, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Zobrist I was just saying before the trade I had looked at his stats and gone “hmmmm he could be a nice starting player for the Astros in the future” but then he was traded away and I was like =(
(I wasn’t implying what you think I was implying you thought I was implying =P)
The trades he made when he first arrived, were probably more of a desire of McLanes to get rid of Lidge (rumored at the time) and get Tejada (rumored to be of interest for a couple years). Could he of done more so far, sure but with what’s available to him and what we currently have I think he’s done an above average job. His strength though which was one of the reason he was brought in was for building up a farm system, and I think we’d all agree that is heading in the right direction as well.
by timmy_ on Nov 9, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I buy into the idea that Zobrist’s personal hitting instructor and new approach to hitting in 08 turned him into a completely different hitter. Prior to that, the D-Rays had to be disappointed in Zobrist.
by clack on Nov 9, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you should use hindsight to evaluate whether a GM is good or bad.....
You have to evaluate the trades based on what people knew or expected at the time. Otherwise you probably end up giving some managers credit for simple good luck and downgrade other managers for things which happened that they couldn’t control.
An example of people jumping to conclusions due to hindsight occurred when Keith Law recently disclosed that the Mets under Steve Phillips offered David Wright to the Blue Jays for Jose Cruz, Jr. People said this proves Phillips was crazy for trying to trade a future all star 3d baseman, and that Riciarelli was stupid for thinking that Jose Cruz, Jr. wasn’t worth a 3d baseman in A ball. That reaction makes sense if you base it on what we know happened at the time. But that ignores the fact that nobody knew at the time that a minor leaguer named Wright was that good, and Cruz was a speedy 5 tool outfielder who was coming off two consecutive seasons of 30 – 45 HRs.
OK, sorry, I got off on this tangent. And davoag’s comments don’t really bother me. I just see a lot of people ranting about old trades without thinking that sometimes it’s just good or bad luck.
by clack on Nov 9, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GMs worse than Ed Wade,
Isiah Thomas while with the Knicks….[end list].
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by HighLeveragePerformer on Nov 9, 2009 6:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 5:43 AM CST)
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