Bill James' Projections for Selected Astros' Hitters
by clack on Nov 6, 2009 11:18 AM CST
7 comments
Previously, I wrote about the Bill James Projections for selected Astros' pitchers. Today, I will look at the Bill James projections for selected Astros' hitters. Below, we compare the 2010 projection for OBP, OPS, RC/G with the player's actual stats from 2009. RC/G is "runs created per game," which is based on a Bill James' formula for estimating a player's total offensive contribution. RC/G is an interesting format because it is the theoretical runs per game a team would score if its lineup was composed only of players whose offensive performance is exactly like this player's.
OBP, OPS, RC/G
Projection .341, .701, 4.57
2009 .354, .738, 5.6
Projection .351, .860, 6.29
2009 .346, .816, 5.1
Carlos Lee
Projection .351, .853, 6.34
2009 .343, .832, 5.7
Projection .406, .924, 7.46
2009 .399, .907, 7.2
Projection .342, .791, 5.45
2009 .336, .795, 5.0
Projection .297, .657, 3.54
2009 .314, .681, 3.9
Projection .348, .743, 4.98
2009 .320, .707, 3.7
Projection .300, .725, 4.49
2009 .130, .221, 0.00
Kaz Matsui
Projection .317, .696, 4.22
2009 .302, .659, 3.9
Projection .286, .644, 3.4
2009 .286, .662, 3.1
Michael Bourn's performance is predicted to decline significantly, while Hunter Pence's offense is projected to increase sufficiently that he overtakes Carlos Lee. Despite the slight edge that Pence holds over Lee, it is interesting that the projections for Pence and Lee are so similar. Although the decline in Bourn's OPS seems relatively small, from a RC/G perspective, he is projected to sustain a 1 run decline. I think 2010 will be a critical year for Bourn and Pence. Will Bourn show that 2009 set a new level of performance for him or not? Will Pence develop into a legitimate slugger like James predicts? Are you satisfied with these projections of Bourn and Pence?
On the infield, James projects a solid season for Berkman, with a small, but noticeable, increase in offensive performance over 2009. Tejada is projected to post another solid offensive season, with a predicted increase over a notable 2009. Tejada's RC/G is projected to rise almost a 1/2 run. This underscores the offensive "hole" which will be created if Tejada is not re-signed. It would be safe to say that James' projections don't like the Astros' recent re-signing of Blum. Blum' offensive performance is expeccted to decline to rather pathetic levels. Blum's predicted RC/G would be the lowest among starters, except for Quintero. And, speaking of the catcher, James has no projection for Towles, but the prediction for Quintero's offense is abysmal. The James' projections would suggest that Keppinger should get more playing time over Blum. Blum would have to put on a spectacular defensive performance to justify more playing time than Keppinger. Both Keppinger and Matsui are projected to show increased offensive performances next year. Surprisingly, James has an offensive prediction for Chris Johnson, and even more surprisingly, James is somewhat more optimistic about Johnson than most of us on this board (including me). Obviously, James' system believes that Johnson's minor league numbers indicate decent enough power to offset, at least in part, a paltry OBP. I have my doubts on that.
Since we've talked about possible free agent signings at 3d base, I'll conclude with similar (OBP, OPS, RC/G) projections for some of those names.
R. Branyan .336, .826, 5.53
A. Kennedy .332, .705, 4.23
F. Lopez .352, .755, 4.81
J. Crede, .302, .735, 4.33
Thoughts?
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Chris Johnson
If his PA are anything like he had in spring training last year I could see Bill James projection come true. Just watching Johnson from PA to PA he really looked like he knew what he was doing at the plate, obviously it’s spring training, but I still liked what he was doing in his AB’s.
Personally I don’t get into projections all that much, because players typically fail to meet or beat their projections. I believe their is a psychological side to the game, that can help a players performance. It could take a coach, it could take another player, but sometimes all it takes is one player to say that key word to another player and it just clicks.
For example Michael Bourn clearly beat out his projections made for him last year, and he’s talked about how Lance said something to him about staying back that helped him at the plate. I don’t think those words magically made him better, I do think those words (and the year of experience) helped him feel more comfortable at the plate, thus allowing him to fill out his potential. Which is what I think Towles needs, and why it’s so frustrating to see the organization jerk some of these young players around.
Projections are fun to look at though, I just take them with a grain of salt.
by timmy_ on Nov 6, 2009 12:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Oh, yeah, definitely take the projections with a grain of salt.
I find it interesting that James predicts such large performance increases for Pence and Keppinger.
by clack on Nov 6, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hunter Pence showed an improvement in his plate discipline at certain points last season and that may of reflected statistically in his stats.
Jeff Keppinger seems to me your typical borderline starter/utility player, I guess it depends on what Bill James saw as far as his roll on the team. Coming entirely of the bench instead of a platoon situation we might see an uptick in his stats.
Brad Mills being the manager and coming from the organization Bill James is an advisor for, might also be a factor, in that by all indications Mills will be putting his players in the best possible position to succeed.
by timmy_ on Nov 6, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Keppinger vs. Blum projections may have a lot to do with aging curves used in the projection system. Keppinger is in his peak performance period (late 20’s), and Blum is at an age when players often decline rapidly. And Keppinger’s triple slash stats last year were all below his career averages, so there is also some regression to mean reflected there too.
by clack on Nov 6, 2009 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow if he is right about Chris Johnson that would be HUGE!!!
If he makes the roster and puts up decent numbers allowing Kepp and Blum to be used completely as bench players that’d be pretty sweet. Then maybe improve some more and be a solid 3B in 2011 would be great. If we could have CF, RF, 3B, C, a couple SPs, and maybe one other position player to all be in their mid 20s in 2011 then that’d be SWEET!
by Astrosws20 on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure those numbers for Johnson are huge, but at least they aren’t disastrous. But keep in mind that the projections for Keppinger are better than Johnson’s, indicating that perhaps Keppinger should be the primary starter. Then, again, as we said, above, take these projections with a grain of salt.
by clack on Nov 6, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 5:43 AM CST)
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