Bill James' Projections for Selected Astros' Hitters


Previously, I wrote about the Bill James Projections for selected Astros' pitchers.  Today, I will look at the Bill James projections for selected Astros' hitters.  Below, we compare the 2010 projection for OBP, OPS, RC/G with the player's actual stats from 2009.  RC/G is "runs created per game," which is based on a Bill James' formula for estimating a player's total offensive contribution.  RC/G is an interesting format because it is the theoretical runs per game a team would score if its lineup was composed only of players whose offensive performance is exactly like this player's.

OBP, OPS, RC/G

Michael Bourn 

Projection .341, .701, 4.57

2009 .354, .738, 5.6

Hunter Pence

Projection  .351, .860, 6.29

2009 .346, .816, 5.1

Carlos Lee

Projection .351, .853, 6.34

2009  .343, .832, 5.7

 

 

Lance Berkman

Projection .406, .924, 7.46

2009  .399, .907, 7.2

Miguel Tejada

Projection .342, .791, 5.45

2009  .336, .795, 5.0

Geoff Blum

Projection  .297, .657, 3.54

2009  .314, .681, 3.9

Jeff Keppinger

Projection  .348, .743, 4.98

2009 .320, .707, 3.7

Chris Johnson

Projection  .300, .725, 4.49

2009  .130, .221, 0.00

Kaz Matsui

Projection  .317, .696, 4.22

2009  .302, .659, 3.9

Humberto Quintero

Projection  .286, .644, 3.4

2009  .286, .662, 3.1

 

Michael Bourn's performance is predicted to decline significantly, while Hunter Pence's offense is projected to increase sufficiently that he overtakes Carlos Lee.  Despite the slight edge that Pence holds over Lee, it is interesting that the projections for Pence and Lee are so similar.   Although the decline in Bourn's OPS seems relatively small, from a RC/G perspective, he is projected to sustain a 1 run decline.   I think 2010 will be a critical year for Bourn and Pence.   Will Bourn show that 2009 set a new level of performance for him or not?  Will Pence develop into a legitimate slugger like James predicts?  Are you satisfied with these projections of Bourn and Pence?

On the infield, James projects a solid season for Berkman, with a small, but noticeable, increase in offensive performance over 2009.  Tejada is projected to post another solid offensive season, with a predicted increase over a notable 2009.   Tejada's RC/G is projected to rise almost a 1/2 run.   This underscores the offensive "hole" which will be created if Tejada is not re-signed.   It would be safe to say that James' projections don't like the Astros' recent re-signing of Blum.   Blum' offensive performance is expeccted to decline to rather pathetic levels. Blum's predicted RC/G would be the lowest among starters, except for Quintero.  And, speaking of the catcher, James has no projection for Towles, but the prediction for Quintero's offense is abysmal.   The James' projections would suggest that Keppinger should get more playing time over Blum.  Blum would have to put on a spectacular defensive performance to justify more playing time than Keppinger.  Both Keppinger and Matsui are projected to show increased offensive performances next year.  Surprisingly, James has an offensive prediction for Chris Johnson, and even more surprisingly, James is somewhat more optimistic about Johnson than most of us on this board (including me).   Obviously, James' system believes that Johnson's minor league numbers indicate decent enough power to offset, at least in part, a paltry OBP.   I have my doubts on that.

Since we've talked about possible free agent signings at 3d base, I'll conclude with similar (OBP, OPS, RC/G) projections for some of those names.

R. Branyan  .336, .826, 5.53

A. Kennedy  .332, .705, 4.23

F. Lopez  .352, .755, 4.81

J. Crede, .302, .735, 4.33

 

Thoughts?

 

 

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