The Crawfish Boxes: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Defense FAIL: Purdue 76, Michigan State 64

Pitching Reclamation Projects


Today, Dying Quail posted his shoestring-budget plan for the Astros offseason, and it included signing a top-tier reclamation project so that new pitching coach Brad Arnsberg could work his magic.  I like the idea of going for upside this offseason with our pitching signings...I'm not really up for repeating the Hampton/Ortiz experience next season.  

Inspired, I've cobbled together quick profiles on the three pitchers DQ named in his piece: Rich Hill, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets.  There are still some other reclamation projects out there, and some potential buy-low candidates (Noah Lowry, anyone? Jon Garland?).  Post your potential pitching deals in the comments!

Star-divide


Rich Hill, LHP

DQ's choice for under-the-radar reclamation project, Rich Hill, is a double-whammy reclamation project.  First, he's known as a bit of a headcase, with most recent articles about him mentioning the possibility that he has Steve Blass disease -- the sudden and near-complete loss off the ability to accurately throw a baseball.  He had an excellent 2007 with the Cubs, with a 3.92 ERA over 195 innings.  He racked up nearly a strikeout per inning that year, and allowed less than a hit per inning (170 H over 195 IP).  At one point early in that season, he had put together a string of 18 innings without an earned run.  But by the end of the season, it was clear that he was having control issues.  As Lou Piniella put it, he was "not the same pitcher that left spring training."  His decline was sharp, and in his fifth start of 2008, he failed to get out of the first inning, walking four out of the six batters he faced.  The general consensus on the Internet seems to be that Hill's control problems are a matter of confidence.

But the mental aspect of the game is not all that Hill has to work on.  In 2009, after being traded to Baltimore for a PTBNL, Hill suffered a torn labrum.  His surgery was on August 7, 2009. 

Overall, as a reclamation project, Hill seems like he's got limited upside.  Leaving aside his most recent injury, in his best major league season, he still put up a 4.32 FIP / 4.17 xFIP.  Further, he's only seen 80 innings of major league batters in the last two years.  My bet is that some team starts him off in 2010 with a minor league deal and the potential to fill in at the major league level in case of injury.


Justin Duchscherer

Duchscherer was Richard Justice's choice for an offseason pitching bargain.  First breaking into the big leagues with the Rangers in 2001, "The Duke of Hurl" spent most of his career as a reliever.  He had an excellent season in 2008, however, when Oakland pulled him out of the bullpen and slotted him into the rotation.  Duchscherer had a 2.54 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and allowed less than one baserunner per inning (0.995 WHIP).  

He battled injuries all through that 2008, however:  an upper arm strain followed by a hip strain requiring his second hip surgery in two years.  Further, in 2009 spring training, a sore elbow required him to have arthroscopic surgery that sidelined him for a month.  The series of injuries and the related rehabilitation, combined with his intense desire to get back on the field and contribute eventually led Duchscherer to take a break from the 2009 season to deal with what his agent called "a very treatable case of clinical depression".  

The 31-year old is probable looking for a starting gig, but for me, the ideal signing would be for him to start the season in the bullpen (as a precaution, due to his recent injuries) and be moved to the rotation at the first opportunity.  He's been fairly effective in relief throughout his career, so this would not be a nonsensical route.  But realistically-speaking, there are enough teams out there starved for starting pitching that Duchscherer should have no problem finding a starting job if that's what he wants.


Ben Sheets

Sheets was a fan-favorite-free-agent last offseason here at The Crawfish Boxes.  Like Duchscherer, Ben Sheets can pitch very well when he's healthy.  Saying he had a sub-4.00 ERA from 2004-2008 actually understates his ability.  During that period, Sheets pitched 839 innings and put up a 3.24 ERA.  Heading into the offseason, Sheets had the potential to land a seriously huge contract...anything less than $15M/year over several years would have been a steal.  But Sheets's health has always been an issue, and he ended the 2009 season with a sore elbow.

He was reportedly close to a two-year deal with the Rangers in early 2009, but his physical showed that his elbow was in worse shape than previously thought.  Sheets ended up having surgery for a torn flexor tendon.  The last time Sheets was seen, he was rehabbing up in Arlington and he said he expects to be ready to pitch by Spring Training. 

It is speculated that one of the reasons Sheets was so interested in the Rangers is because they have highly-regarded pitching coach Mike Maddux.  Maybe now that we have our own highly-regarded pitching coach, Sheets will have more interest in Houston.  Sheets will likely be the most expensive "reclamation" signing this offseason.

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I don't think Garland fits the profile

He’s overpaid and you know exactly what you’re getting, durable mediocrity. I wonder if he will be overpaid again this off-season, or if he will be priced reasonably?

I think Duchscherer would be a good option if he’s cheap, due to his versatility. I have the feeling our starting rotation is going to be a moving target through ST as Mills and Wade try to decide who is best to fill the last three spots in the rotation, between Norris, Paulino, Fulchino, Wright, Moehler, and whoever else they sign.

By signing someone with relief experience we’d have another arm that could slot easily into the bullpen, in Duchscherer’s case maybe in a setup role.

My suspicion is that we’ll have a lot of pitching depth in 2010 but little stability and no truly reliable #3 starter.

by OremLK on Nov 5, 2009 1:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

And no reliable closer either for that matter.

by OremLK on Nov 5, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, you’re right, Garland doesn’t fit the profile…just throwing out names to get conversations going.

by AstroAndy on Nov 5, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Duchscherer plays next year it will be in a rotation

and his agent will see to that in negotiations. Plus if you were interested in putting him in the bullpen you don’t put him in the set up man role. You have him close with a reliable set up man like Hawkins there just in case. I’m not fond of the bullpen idea though.

I like the idea of Duchscherer and would love to have him since he won’t cost a lot, but for being a risk he’ll be more expensive than some and I have a feeling out of our price range when you consider all the other holes we have to fill and that Drayton is probably reducing the payroll. I like the idea of Noah Lowry. I’m not a Garland fan at all but it might be worth the extra cash and sacrificing some good signings at other positions to get someone who will give us at least 180 maybe 200 innings, an ERA right around 4 which isn’t bad, and will stay healthy. This is one year I’d be fine with it but don’t overspend and try to keep it at a 2 year contract if possible. The way last season played out and ended I want durability more than potential this year. I want to see at least 3 of our starters go wire to wire. We had one starter who made 33 starts, with everyone else missing a couple starts or get shut down early or something. Rightly so to not have Norris and Oswalt pitch in the last weeks but the nagging injuries of our pitching staff was just flat out embarrassing. Our minor league pitchers got looks starting last year mainly because we had no other options and were forced to bring them up. That’s sad.

by Astrosws20 on Nov 6, 2009 2:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

the three reclamation pitchers i would pick the stros to sign would be

brett myers- can be a great number three starter or really good closer depending on what you need

noah lowry- we need another lefty, and he is definitely a high potential guy that would be great if we could get him cheap

whoever we can afford between sheets, justin D, doug davis, and garland, the thing is i think the stros need to get at least two of these guys and try to get three to have a productive picthing staff. if you hit on say sheets, garland, or myers than you have a great shot having a really good to legit number three guy. and if your able to bring in two than a rotation that is able to throw out 2 of those guys roy wandy norris and moehler would be stout

i wonder if we take on a guy like bj ryan or jj putz as a reclamation closer project

by strosfan31 on Nov 6, 2009 10:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think the Astros can afford three of these types of guys. Anyway, if they’re going to spend that kind of money, they might as well make a play for Lackey, or even Wolf or Pineiro.

by OremLK on Nov 6, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i was saying more ideally you would like to get three but realistically you can probably only afford at the most two

id like to see lowry and myers or sheets be signed and sign putz and try to have hawk and putz at the back of the bullpen

what do you think cost of the reclamation pitchers we are talking about

i would say 5 to 6 for myers, probably more for sheets? 4 to 5 for lowry? no idea on garland justin d. doug davis or putz

i feel like signing a lefty is a must, and lowry is the most attainable with highest potential

and then i feel like sheets or myers have the best chance of returning to form where they are great top of the rotation options, for the best price out there

how about this though, erik bedard is coming off consecutive injury prone/bad years, how bout take 7 to 8 mil everyone wants to pay miggy and use it on a potential top of the rotation lefty at around two year 18 mil deal with a mutual option?

if he can return to 2007 form he is a legit 1 or 2, and wandy bedard and roy would be excellent in my book

by strosfan31 on Nov 7, 2009 1:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

few more names

What about Todd Wellemeyer, Carl Pavano or Erik Bedard?

I like Wellemeyer. He’s proved that he can pitch at the big league level in the past. 2009 was definetly a challenge for him and I doubt the Cards will bring him back. A change of scenery might do him good. And he’s not going to break the bank.

Not sure if the Twins can put up the kind of money Pavano will charge. He had some flashes of brilliance in 2009 but couldn’t seem to keep it together for more than a few starts. Perhaps getting back to the NL will bring him back to his Marlins days.

And, being Canadian, I have a special place in my heart for Bedard. He’s a dominat pitcher when healthy. That’s a big if – he’s spent a lot of time on the DL with the Mariners. Similar situation to Hampton last year, with Bedard having far higher potential.

Or if you’re really desparate – Daniel Cabrera is available…..

by astro_boy on Nov 7, 2009 5:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I like Bedard if he is healthy, but, as you’ve mentioned, that is problematic. I have a feeling that he will be too expensive relative to the risk.

I think Pavano isn’t a bad idea. But he may be too expensive for what he offers (which is basically a pitch-to-contact inning eater). But if he is available at a reasonable price, I like signing him. Look at his 4.0 FIP and 199 IP in 2009, and I’m not sure “rehab project” fits. The one advantage the Astros may have with Pavano is that Arnsberg has experience coaching him.

Wellemeyer…I’m not really sure what’s going on with him. His Ks fell sharply and his BBs rose sharply, which is rarely a good thing. I think he had some elbow issues late in the season. He may be Tommy John surgery waiting to happen.

by clack on Nov 7, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The problems with Ben Sheets are 1. He’s too pricey 2. Even if he appears to be worth it he’ll never be healthy for the playoffs so there’s really no point.

by Astrosws20 on Nov 8, 2009 9:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Crawfishboxes, the SBNation blog for the Houston Astros.
Start posting about the Astros »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Pitching Mechanics/Terms To Look/Listen For

Recent FanPosts

Johns_small
Vallejo and Lyon News
Small
Beating a Dead Horse: Should Berkman be a LHB?
Small
Pre-Spring NL Overview/Predictions
Small
Looking ahead to the 2010 mlb draft
39135485-59af19dbb26654095f910f34176af094_4ae8a81e-scaled_small
Predictions Group
Fbod6_small
Boys of Summer Revisited
Kids_small
Outsider's Astros prospects 30-21
Small
McTaggart: Wandy and Astros going to arbitration
Nsapcs13_large_small
Gumbel, Pearlman throw Bagwell into the McGwire mess

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

THE CRAWFISH BOXES GETS SOCIAL

Picture_88_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Facebook

Picture_89_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Twitter

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 2.10.2010 at 5:43 AM CST)


Humble Blog Managers

Woodstock_small HighLeveragePerformer

Lovelance_small DyingQuail

Old_school_dome_logo_small David Coleman

Editors

Nsapcs13_large_small clack

Fbod6_small farm_stros