What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 9:16 AM CST
in Hot Stove
19 comments
The title is somewhat facetious. The Astros are guaranteed to spend around $80 million, as is, heading into 2010, but there should be another $10-15 million to allocate to filling the gaps. So where should Ed Wade and co. be focusing on allocating it?
In my mind, there are few options:
- Find someone for 3rd base. Geoff Blum isn't getting any younger and Chris Johnson isn't getting any better at getting on base. Jeff Keppinger was great as a platoon there, but I think we can find a better option. This option could include re-signing Tejada and slotting him at 3rd, but I doubt that happens in the wake of the Blum re-signing. If we really wanted to go for it: Chone Figgins (probably a multi-year deal with at least $7-8 million on the table each year).
- Sign LaTroy Hawkins back to have a strong depth for the likely closer by committee situation I can feel building. There are a few former closers who carry the label to which I'm sure Ed Wade is keen, and my Interesting rehab-esque-project of the bunch is Billy Wagner.
- Sign a top-teir reclamation project for Arnsberg to get behind. Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer are probably the cream of that crop. Both are coming off years where they were DLed and in all honesty I don't know the exact status of either of the two, but if they could log 100-120IP for us in 2010 just think of the marginal gain. That's replacing Hampton or Ortiz' production for probably not a whole lot more in guaranteed money. Neither of those two are looking for multi-year deals. Instead, they're looking for a chance to audition for a year and then jump into the big deals they seemed primed for in 2008. My under the radar choice for Arnsberg to ply his trade with: Rich Hill (see photo caption for explanation...for the one other than LHP hominid).
- Convince Drayton McLane that if he wants a decent on-field product, he's probably going to accept spending in the red. I don't think this is a hard argument to win. There's little to no fan excitement with this team—especially after a 10-22 last month-ish of the season. Unemployment is still up and while other macro-economic indicators are improved, they're not game changing. The odds that attendance collapses further if Drayton doesn't do something to generate excitement is roughly the equivalent of the odds that Drew Brees beats Jake Delhomme in TD passes this season. So the options Drayton has seem to be: lose money by nothing nothing, or spend just a little bit more money and increase your odds that you don't lose revenue.
- Rich Hill signs for no more than $3 million.
- Hawkins re-signed, or some equivalent former closer for no more than $5 million. Wagner would be a sexy choice.
- Bobby Crosby gets a crack at 3rd base for $5-6 million.
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I immediately regret throwing out Crosby's name
His strong UZR at 2B just made me think he could play 3B adequately. Then with the AL to NL inflation, I figured he’d hit decently and have a good glove.
I was wrong.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 9:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
You beat me to it…I came to the comments just to say that if we wanted Bobby Crosby-type production, we could just plug Chris Johnson in the lineup much cheaper.
by AstroAndy on Nov 5, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hit publish
And then wondered to myself is if Crosby’s 2B prowess translated at 3B. When I saw the reality, I raced back here.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 9:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd also be interested in your reasoning behind Rich Hill
Good career strikeout rates, but this is a guy whose best MLB season was for 4.32 FIP, and who had horrific control problems the last couple years in both the minors and the majors (to the tune of 6.24 BB/9 in 2009). Has he been struggling with injury problems?
by OremLK on Nov 5, 2009 10:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The K's are appealing
And from what I’ve read about Hill, it’s always been about confidence, etc. From what Dave and others have dug up on Arnsberg, it seems like he could work well with Hill.
So I guess it’s the hope that Arnsberg could straighten Hill out into a consistent number three starter.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 10:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hill had arm surgery sometime last season...
I would think that there is a risk that rehab time might extend beyond next season. My suggestion for a injury project: Noah Lowry. He hasn’t pitched in two years, because of shoulder surgery. So plenty of time has passed since the surgery. His agent says he is currently throwing every three days and is throwing well. Yeah, I realize that his agent would say that under most any circumstance. But he might be worth a scouting visit.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There it is then
Noah Lowry is my new sexy-under-the-radar-reclamation project of the off season.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The only problem with that is I’ve heard rumors Lowry is trying to sue the Giants over his injury, which has been rumored to be career-threatening. Apparently, there was some issue after his initial injury that led to the second (either surgical or misdiagnosis). All very worrisome.
by David Coleman on Nov 5, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I only said…“worth a scouting visit.” I suggest the Astros watch him throw and see if he looks like a comeback candidate. BTW, the Astros had somebody on their roster last year who was suing one of their old teams on a medical diagnosis and lost in a Texas court….I’m thinking Brocail, but I could be wrong.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I assume it’s more common for players to sue former teams than we realize. I’ve actually thought the same thing you did, but all the stories surrounding how badly he was hurt have scared me off. Scouting him, though? No harm in that…
by David Coleman on Nov 5, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m no medical expert, but if his agent is correct that he is now healthy and throwing “without restriction,” it seems worth looking at.
Here’s what I could find on his injury situation. Lowry was diagnosed with a forearm injury in 2007, and eventually underwent forearm surgery in 2008. However, with continued pain in his neck and shoulder, he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, calling into question his previous diagnosis as well as the necessity of his forearm surgery. He had surgery in May 2009 to remove a rib and reduce compression.
From a layperson perspective, it seems to me that, while this is a serious condition and perhaps could be career threatening, at least it doesn’t involve structural damage to his shoulder, which is an obvious concern for pitchers.
Wikipedia had this to say:
Major League Baseball players Matt Harrison, Hank Blalock, John Rheinecker, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Noah Lowry8 have recently been diagnosed with Thoracic outlet syndrome. Kenny Rogers was diagnosed several years earlier with TOS in the other upper extremity. Coincidentally, five of these seven players have played for the Texas Rangers. All-Star pitcher J. R. Richard suffered a career-ending stroke from an undiagnosed case of TOS. Pitcher David Cone had a variant case of TOS, with an arterial aneurysm of the upper aspect of his pitching arm.
I looked up David Cone, and he was diagnosed in 1996, but returned to pitching in the next year. He pitched a no hitter for 7 innings in his first start back, before he was lifted due to pitch count restrictions. He pitched a full no hitter in 1999. So, it doesn’t seem like it’s impossible for a pitcher to make a comeback.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It was Brocail
And I believe he was suing the Tigers.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 5, 2009 4:24 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
At third base, my first choice still would be re-signing Tejada if he would accept a $7 million range contract. I think that would put Blum back where he is most effective: utility back up and pinch hitter. If that’s not feasible, I would consider some of the ideas we have kicked around on the board: Adam Kennedy, Russell Branyan, Felipe Lopez, Adam Heether.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 10:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
One third base possibility is quickly gone....
Royals trade Teahan to the White Sox for Chris Getz and Josh Fields. Trades apparently are heating up as the WS ends.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 11:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Chad Tracy's option was just declined
Don’t know that he’s a serious possibility after his injury problems and a bad couple of years, but for what’s it worth, he’s only 29 and has a 3.4 career UZR/150 in 340 games at third base.
by OremLK on Nov 5, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tracy's an interesting option
His down year may make him more affordable, but there’s some hope for a bounceback…his BABIP for 2009 was about 50 points lower than his career BABIP. His performance dip coincides with seeing substantially more sliders than he had been seeing in previous years, so maybe he’s a victim of the advance scouts.
But basically, even with a bad year he wouldn’t be much worse than Geoff Blum, and he has a bit more power and upside…if he can even just bounce back to 2007 form, that’d be good for a .264/.346/.454 line.
by AstroAndy on Nov 5, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
According to a quick calculator I’ve got, his xBABIP (expected BABIP) should have been .301 which is right around his career average, so you may have something there. However, his line drive rate was down compared to his career average, so I don’t know that it’s realistic to expect quite that high. Still, it seems like he was the victim of some bad luck. What worries me more is that he hasn’t played (anywhere close to) a full season since 2006. Because of injuries? I haven’t followed his career so I don’t know.
by OremLK on Nov 5, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
From an offensive standpoint, I think Tracy may be a good gamble. However, my recollection is that injuries have taken away his ability to play 3d base satisfactorily. The D-Backs used him almost exclusively at 1st base last year. From what I’ve read, the D-Backs did not view him as anything but an emergency player at 3d base. If it’s true that he can’t play 3d base competently anymore, that’s too bad because he was pretty good third baseman at one time.
This is pretty meaningless, but (according to B-Ref) Chad Tracy is Hunter Pence’s No. 1 comparable at Pence’s age last year. The only reason I mention this is because I spent too much time comparing Pence’s and Tracy’s stats trying to figure out why he would Pence’s No. 1 comp. They didn’t seem that similar.
by clack on Nov 5, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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