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Astros (Sometimes Tangentially)-Related Link Fest

Lots and lots of links over the weekend. Maybe it's because Thanksgiving marks the unofficial beginning of the baseball offseason. Maybe it's because writers finally decompressed from the World Series ending. Whatever the reason, here's a jumbo-sized post full of link-y goodness:

  • Here's an interesting article about the impact long-term contracts to early-year players has on the free agent pool. The Astros haven't done this in a while, but if Jason Castro develops in his first two seasons, it'll be interesting to see if they sign him to a four- or five-year deal.
  • The first and second in a series on non-tender candidates. We've discussed Garrett Atkins a little bit on here but Kelly Shoppach hasn't gotten much publicity. Given his line over the past three seasons and the fact that he's moving to the National League, Shoppach could have some value for a team like the Astros. At the very least, he could replace a guy like Quintero, who's never hit nearly as well. Thoughts?
  • Richard Justice steals one of our ideas, asking for input on what to do with the Astros budget. Later, Brian McTaggart does the same exact thing here. Is this a sign of lazy writing, a slow winter or stealing the great ideas of the gifted writers here at TCB. I'll let you decide...
  • McTaggart also trotted out a mailbag for astros.com, answering reader questions about the state of the team. Unfortunately, there wasn't any new information to be gleaned. Yes, the Astros are on a budget. No, they are not going after big-name pitchers. Yes, they will explore the trade market, but no, they probably won't get any deals done. Most vexing is McTaggart saying that the Astros are content with Geoff Blum manning third in a platoon. Mind you, this platoon will also mean Blum gets the majority of the plate appearances, since there are more right-handed pitchers than leftys. Ed Wade is okay with this?
  • McTaggart is good at his job, but it also goes to show you what an advantage media types at known media outlets have, in that he can talk to Wade pretty much every day. I talk to him too, but he may or may not be a fictional version of himself in those conversations.
  • Joe Posnanski takes on the same question I hinted at the other day: Is Albert Pujols a Hall of Famer already? How many other current players 29 or under are also HOF-bound? Any Astros potentially on that list?
  • For those of you (i.e. me) who suggested the Astros look at Derek Lowe, here's a cautionary article about his underlying stats. Now, I'd argue that pitching in MMP would give Lowe the added benefit of giving up towering shots to center field that are swallowed up by Michael Bourn, but I don't feel nearly as good as I did before I read that.
  • Maybe the Astros will have some money to spend in 2011. Maybe that's why Drayton is saving up this winter. (Slightly disturbing to see Berkman's name here right after that candid interview he did recently...I don't know what I'd do without Puma on the team.)
  • Don't believe everything you read during the Hot Stove Months. The only difference between bloggers and mainstream journalists is that the mainstreamers don't just make up stuff, right? Is that how we got reports about the Rangers shopping for a third baseman? Oh, right, it's because no one tries to check facts any more, preferring to break news instead. Glad we cleared that up.
  • There are a LOT of Dogers headed for big arbitration raises soon. If Berkman does decide to leave in 2011, could the Astros make a play for hometown guy James Loney? Does that make sense? Would it be cheaper in the long-run?
  • Finally, a little snippet from John Sickels on former Houston high schooler Randall Grichuk (down at the bottom). He was rumored to be headed to the Astros before the draft, but was nabbed by the Angels instead. Always nice to see local kids making their way to the majors.

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1. I’m not as convinced by that Fangraphs article on Lowe. The author notes that Lowe’s GB% declined by 4% and assumes that it is a permanent decline because GB% stabilizes after 200 innings. I think the author is mis-reading the evidence. The studies I have seen indicate that you can get a more or less permanent read on hitter’s groundball tendencies in a small sample size. However, anyone who has routinely looked at pitchers’ groundball stats know that moving up and down 4% year to year is not unusual. In fact, another article just above the Lowe article, by Dave Allen, on projecting pitcher performance uses Bannister’s GB rate to show that you would be mistaken to develop some kind of Marcel-like trend line; Allen, who relies on FX data, points out that a spike in Lowe’s GB rate corresponds to an increased use of the cutter instead of a FB. Similarly, a pitcher can change the mix of 4 seam, 2 seam FBs, sliders, etc., perhaps unintentionally, and get a change from his career groundball rate. You need Pitch FX to isolate changes in 4 seam and 2 seam FB usage; but looking at Lowe’s Fangraph’s pitch data, it appears that he reduced his use of the slider, which could reduce the GB rate. (One of the commenters notes that Lowe pitched with a blister in 4 games and produced more HRs and flyballs in those games.)

2. I think a more obvious explanation for Lowe’s downward performance is a BABIP which is 20 points higher than his career norm, and a LOB% which is below his career average—-i.e., pointing to bad luck. Lowe’s declining K rate is worrisome, though.

3. As for Loney…is he really going to be a good first baseman? His slugging % has been declining, and fell below .400 last year—really bad for a first baseman. So far, he looks like a Sean Casey type first baseman.

4. The declining performance this year by Shoppach and Atkins was predictable. I think Shoppach may not be quite as bad as his 09 performance though. He may improve his batting average somewhat, but he has some huge holes in his swing. He swings and misses a lot…more than almost anybody. Would I take Shoppach over Quintero? Sure, in a nanosecond. But I don’t think he will be in the Astros’ price range if he becomes a free agent.

5. Any predictions on whom the Astros might non-tender? Sampson and Keppinger come to mind as possibilities, though not likely cases. (I wouldn’t non-tender either player.)

by clack on Nov 30, 2009 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

I clicked through so many links today, I didn’t connect those two different FanGraphs articles on ground ball rates. You could probably make an argument that Lowe is less of a risk than someone like Roy Halladay, who has pitched a ton of innings and has injury history, though obviously the two aren’t necessarily comparable performance-wise.

I don’t actually see the Astros non-tendering anyone, simply because it’s cheaper to keep the current team in place. Wade may do some tinkering around the edges, but with the average ML salary at around 3 million, those two guys are still cheaper than their replacements would be.

by David Coleman on Nov 30, 2009 4:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Trade, maybe.

Value and control, so why not? I don’t see them non-tendering either.

by OremLK on Nov 30, 2009 8:43 PM CST up reply actions  

MLB Network's Hot Stove

Jon Heyman was on talking about the Astros and another team having interest in Joe Crede. Their was another name they dropped but at this particular time I can not remember what it was. I have it taping tomorrow morning so if I get a chance I’ll watch it again and see if I can’t catch the other name.

by timmy_ on Nov 30, 2009 10:19 PM CST reply actions  

Crede is well-respected defensively, but his bat is about the same as Blum’s. Maybe just a little more slugging. Would he be an overall upgrade? Maybe… probably. But not by very much. Weirdly, he has a reverse platoon split these past few years, hitting better against righties than lefties. Make of that what you will…

by OremLK on Dec 1, 2009 2:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Crede is an injury gamble type player.

He has had problems with back injuries, and his offense has sagged. In the seasons when he was healthy enough to get more than 400 at bats, he was a good offensive player with a .756 – .828 OPS. When injuries held him to the 200 – 300 at bat range, he was a bad offensive player. Is he healthy enough to hit like he did in 2005 – 2006? I suppose that’s the question. When healthy, he is much better hitter than Blum. When he’s not, he is worse.

by clack on Dec 1, 2009 7:08 AM CST up reply actions  

not so surprising. Gonzalez fits the “second tier” closer category.

by clack on Dec 1, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Shoppach..

Reportedly Tampa Bay is about to consummate a trade for him. It is reported as PTBNL for Shoppach.

by clack on Dec 1, 2009 3:09 PM CST reply actions  

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