Tuesday Afternoon Astros Link-Fest
by David Coleman on Nov 3, 2009 1:00 PM CST
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PrintLet's look at some baseball-related links while wondering why the heck Joe Girardi is still pitching to Chase Utley...
- Here's a nice roundup done by Brian McTaggart on the Astro Winter League contingent. Of note, Chia-jen Lo has headed back to Taiwan for a while and the Astros can't hit or pitch. I kid, of course, though one is more troubling than the other. I saw a tweet from Jonathan Mayo that the AFL league ERA was something like 5.87. That's with Stephen Strasburg, even. So, I'm not as worried about Danny Meszaros, especially when he has struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings. But, Jason Castro, Jose Vallejo and Jon Gaston all struggling is worrying. Castro has played a ton in the past season, though, and Vallejo isn't expected to do much next season. This leaves Gaston. He's got more potential than anyone gave him credit for, but with the extended slumps, the strikeouts and the fact he's probably going to settle in left field, how is he not a younger Luke Scott? Not that that's a bad thing, but it's an interesting comparison. I may have to look into a little more deeply.
- Speaking of prospects, here's a good interview by The Unofficial Scorer with Jiovanni Mier. I have to admit, I've been intrigued with Mier all summer. He's played well, has shown good range at short and has got some pop in his bat. Like Castro, he profiles as more of a doubles hitters than a home-run threat, but as long as he can get on base at a .360-.380 clip in the majors, I'm fine with fewer homers.
- Sparked by the Astros flirtation with Phil Garner, this article from THT talks about all the rehirings throughout history. Under Peculiar Owners, Jaffe lists just Charlie Finley and George Steinbrenner, but I'm thinking a certain grocery magnate from Temple could join that list...
- File this under, 'Things I would have done if I had lived in 1911.'
- Finally a bit of speculation on the merits of Russell Branyan. He's been mentioned a few times as a possible candidate for that black hole at third base the Astros currently have. Would he tingle anyone's toes if he signed? According to FanGraphs, Branyan was worth 12.5 million in 2009, which is more than he was worth in the previous three seasons combined. It might be a bad idea, then, to give him a multi-year deal. Instead, how about targeting a guy like Joe Crede, who may be released by the Twins. Crede earned 2.5 million in 2009 but was worth 8.3 million. His hitting has never rebounded to 2006 levels, but his wOBA was back to .330 as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. He's great with the glove, so maybe a move to the National League will help his hitting.
Back tomorrow with a look at the Astros fielding...
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It’s hard to be too upset about Gaston if he has an OPS over .900 in the AFL. Yeah, the Ks and batting average aren’t where you want them, but the power and OBP seems to be there.
Am I recalling correctly that Castro didn’t hit well with Team USA either? Is this a prolonged slump?
Ricky Bennett’s quotes are funny…for each of the players with bad stats in the AFL, he starts out his answer with “he’s OK” or “he’s fine.”
Hit the nail on the head
I was going to mention that while Jon Gaston’s stats appear to be down, they reminded me of one Adam Dunn. Low batting avg, high OBP, high SO, high SLG.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 3, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
Dunn has a K rate in the low 30% range in the majors, and he tended to fall in the 25-30 % range in the minors. Hopefully the 40% or so AFL K rate for Gaston is partly due to a small sample size. Gaston’s Tri -City and Lancaster K rates are 27%, which is similar to Dunn’s range in some of his minor league stops. Dunn’s batting average was good in the minors but fell when he reached the major league level. Gaston BB/K ratio is below Dunn’s, because Dunn is so prolific at taking walks.
If the Astros signed Crede....
would they lead the league in back injuries? Matsui, Oswalt, Crede…am I missing anybody?
The crede idea looks good on paper, but i really just don’t know about his back. i’ve read that he’s even thought of retirement as opposed to his publicly saying otherwise.
As for the AFL, we have had a pretty dismal performance with the bats. I think castro is probably overworked and a break would do him good. Let’s not forget this is first year of full season pro ball. While others in the same draft have been playing just as much, they haven’t been showing decreased productivity like he has. I think after the AFL, he’ll have a good break to relax and he’ll show up nicely in spring training. Although i think he may even need to spend a little more time at AA to develop some more power and wait for september before making an appearance in the majors. Gaston…all i can say is, can you imagine his numbers if he didn’t strike out nearly every other at-bat? .900 OPS is nice and if he could turn a near 50% strike out rate to near 20% he’d be an amazing prospect. If only LF would have an opening in 2011 or 2012 instead of 2013.
Pitching has been decent for us so far, Lo has been awesome, Meszaros has been good, and Lopez has been better than i would have thought. This looks better with the league ERA in the 5’s
As for left field, there is a brief window of opportunity to trade Lee, I think. His no-trade clause expires at the end of the 2010 season and becomes a limited no-trade clause, I believe (and who knows what that entails). If he plays the 2011 season, however, he gets 10-and-5 rights (which allows the player to block a trade if he has been in baseball for 10 years and with the same team for 5 years).
Normally the “limited no trade clause” means that he specifies either a list of teams he will approve a trade, or a list of teams to which he cannot be traded. He probably gets to make out his list just before each year (even though that practice varies, I think). Some agents will urge their clients to specify as the acceptable teams, those which are most unlikely to afford the player or most unlikely to need the player. If the player does that, the limited no trade clause has the same practical effect as a no trade clause.
I just want to say that I agree Crede’s back is quite scary and I wouldn’t necessarily want to count on him regularly either. I was just throwing him out as a counter to Russell Branyan. Let’s face it, none of the FAs the Astros will be looking at are without blemish. I’d still rather have a Crede coming off a down year instead of a Branyan coming off a career year.
It depends on what Branyan will cost. Nobody is going to pay him what his career year is worth. I would prefer Branyan if he can be had for less than $5 million.
Branyan played in Milwaukee for awhile. When the new Seattle GM, Jack Zduriencik, came from Milwaukee, he signed Branyan at a bargain basement price. Zduriencik used to be Heck’s boss in Milwaukee. I wonder if Heck has similar positive views of Branyan, as Z did?
Is Heck even involved in FA meetings and decisions, or is he strictly player development?
by Timothy De Block on Nov 3, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions
His title is Assistant GM for Scouting.
He is supposed to be in charge of all scouting: major league, minor league, and amateur. So one would suppose he is involved in evaluating free agents. How much he is involved, I don’t know.
Why all this talk of third base?
The vibe in September was Miguel Tejada moves to third base in 2010. With Tejada and Lamb (and maybe Keppinger) i don’t see the Astros signing another third baseman.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Nov 3, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions
Make that "Blum" not "Lamb"
made that mistake all season
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Nov 3, 2009 5:48 PM CST up reply actions
I think the Astros will talk with Tejada about coming back...
but in all liklihood it will depend on Tejada’s willingness to accept a “discount,” based on what he can get in the free agent market.
Crede
I agree that Crede’s back is scary. That being said, Crede’s defense would be wonderful at 3B, and his power at the plate would be nice. I’d generally prefer some better OBP to slot in second in the lineup, but having such a power threat behind Carlos would be good too.
Looking at his plate discipline stats and his BB% and K% on fangraphs, his approach doesn’t seem to have changed much since his heyday in 2005 and 2006. He is hitting a few percentage points lower in the line drive department, with a corresponding uptick in the fly-ball department. Can’t tell if this is just random fluctuation, or if it’s an actual trend.
Also, he’s got a tragically low career BABIP of .259, but he managed to undercut that by 30 points last year. He may be due for better luck next year.
Although looking at his spray charts, I think it’d be safe to say that Crede would very much enjoy the Crawfishord Boxes if he can stay healthy.
You would probably have to get a Pudge Rodriguez type deal from his agent, Scott Boras. Boras, as you know, is pretty stubborn about maximizing salaries; however, he will occasionally do a one year deal like he negotiated for Pudge in order to try and build a player’s value back up.
I thought the signing of Pudge was more to the fact that the Astros were offering him a full-time gig, and everyone else was offering a part-time gig. I’d assume that Pudge told Boras to go get his deal done, especially with it so late in spring training.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 4, 2009 7:23 AM CST up reply actions
that’s probably true, and maybe Pudge’s contract isn’t the best example. But I mentioned it because it was the first time that the Astros had dealt with Boras in a long time, and it was also the unusual example of a Boras client agreeing to a cheap contract. Andrew Jones’ contract with the Rangers may be another example. Boras will at times advise his client to take a 1 year contract at a salary less than Boras thinks the player is worth if he thinks the player might rebuild his value into a big multi-year contract.
From the Levine link:
“Around August your body starts feeling that you’re playing every day and what it’s like,” Mier said. “It really takes a toll on your body. My body wasn’t quite used to it, but it wasn’t too bad.”
This was reflected in his statistics, though the sample sizes aren’t huge. In the rookie-level season, there are only two full months, July and August.
July: .333 BA, .443 OBP, .517 SLG
Aug: .221 BA, .327 OBP, .453 SLG
God. Tiny sample sizes in rookie ball, yes, but if the July numbers are more telling of his potential as he builds stamina, maybe the Jeter comparisons aren’t so far off after all.
But I should probably hold off, it’s far too early to know. Still, it’s promising, isn’t it?
Yes, very promising, but in that particular article he also says that he’s been seeing a lot of fastballs, as opposed to breaking balls. Maybe you take that as having good pitch recognition, but I’m a little bit worried about what could possible happens as he moves up the system and starts to see those breaking pitches. We’ll just have to wait and see.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 4, 2009 7:25 AM CST up reply actions
No one's commented on it, yet
But I want to say, that picture from 1911 is awesome.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
Old time radio baseball broadcasts on MP3 CDs
A guy who calls himslef otrcat sells mp3 discs of old time radio programs. Two of the discs contain 15 baseball games from 1934 to 1964.
Here’s more info if you’re interested:
http://www.otrcat.com/sports-baseball-broadcasts-p-1854.html (with sample)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Nov 4, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
That looks Christmas list worthy
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 4, 2009 1:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
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