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Astros can remain competitive with reduced payroll


There have been quite a few discussions regarding payroll for the Astros next year and I find myself wondering what kind of team they could put together for less.  I'm of the camp that, given their payroll, they should be competitive.  I feel that some of the recent posts have assumed that the team will be worse off next year with a lower payroll.  They were competitive for half a season in 2009, what's going to change in 2010?  Can they really field a better team for less?  Well here's my two cents for a competitive team next season given a payroll in the low $90M's:

Infield:

1B - Lance Berkman ($14.5)

2B - Kaz Matsui ($5.5)

SS - Tommy Manzella ($0.4)

3B - Andy Marte ($0.5)

C - Humberto Quintero ($0.7)*

IF - Geoff Blum ($1.5)

IF - Jeff Keppinger ($0.5)*

C - Josh Bard ($1.0)

I have assumed that the Astros could trade J.R. Towles to Cleveland for Andy Marte.  Marte is out of minor league options and would not clear waivers again this year should he have a slow start.  The Indians are looking for catching talent and a change of scenery for both players would be welcome.  I feel that Blum is more valuable coming off the bench and spelling Berkman and Marte in the infield.  Keppinger can be a super utility player and get time mainly at 2B and SS, as well as the occasional time at 3B.  Bard (who is a free agent) is a switch hitting catcher that can hit and his defense is passable.

Outfield:

LF - Carlos Lee ($19.0)

CF - Michael Bourn ($4.5)*

RF - Hunter Pence ($2.5)*

OF - Jason Bourgeois ($0.4)*

OF - Frank Catalanotto ($1.5)

Boureois is a quality player and would get time spelling all three during the season.  He needs some ABs to prove his worth.  If he has a slow start, Bogusevic, Ramirez or Abercrombie could prove capable of provinding backup services.  Catalanotto (a free agent) is a professional hitter coming off the bench and a lefty to boot.

Starting Rotation:

Roy Oswalt ($15.0)

Wandy Rodriguez ($5.0)*

Rich Harden ($5.0)

Bud Norris ($0.4)

Felipe Paulino ($0.4)

Oswalt and Wandy are capable in the 1 & 2 slot.  However the 3 & 4 slot worry me.  I have inserted Harden in the number 3 slot.  He's a free agent and I think the Stros can make a pitch for him.  If he is unavailable, then the team could pick up Brad Penny for a little cheaper.  I hope that Norris can improve on last year's performance.  And Paulino needs to be given a true chance to show his stuff.  The expectations are low, hopefully he can pull through.

Bullpen:

RP - Chris Sampson ($0.6)*

RP - Alberto Arias ($0.4)

RP - Tim Byrdak ($1.0)*

Long - Brian Moehler ($3.0)

Setup - Jeff Fulchino ($0.4)

Setup - LaTroy Hawkins ($4.0)

Closer - Mike Gonzalez ($4.5) 

The bullpen is going to be difficult with the uncertainty of Hawkins and Valverde.  The Astros have plenty of arms to fill the pen.  Should any falter, there are other options that could provide servicable at the top end (Gervacio, Wright et al.).  Byrdak is the lefty specialist of the day.  Moehler can pitch long and provide spot starts.  Fulchino and Hawkins provide setup services.  Sign Mike Gonzalez to close - he is dominant when healthy and, besides the wind-up, looked pretty good last year.  I think he'll be itching to close and I'm not sure the Braves will give him the opportunity. 

I figure this 25 man roster would cost about $92.5M.  You will note that I have indicated with an asterisk all players that are arbitration eligible.  I've inserted salaries for next season that I believe are conservative.

I hope this post shows that the Astros can work with their (reduced) payroll and still remain competitive.  They may not make the playoffs but I think they can keep up with the big boys.  Look forward to your comments (including assumed salary numbers) and ideas.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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Not bad, but "competitive" might be overstating

Here are a few points of discussion:

-Andy Marte is a lot more of a busted prospect than Towles has ever been. I feel like there’s a good chance we’d be getting the sore end of the deal.
-Likewise, I’m not convinced that Josh Bard would be more than a “side-grade” to Towles. He might even be worse offensively.
-Harden will probably be looking for more than $5 million, though that’s probably all I’d pay for him given his injury history. He’s not a bad idea for that price, but getting him that cheap is a big “if”.
-Will Mike Gonzalez actually be that cheap?

Overall, it might be better than 2009 or it might not. There are a lot of big question marks in that roster, and unless Marte suddenly had a breakout season, our offense would almost certainly be worse. The pitching could be a lot better, or it could be about the same.

I don’t think the Astros can do a whole lot better on $90 million, though.

by OremLK on Nov 25, 2009 3:55 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I also agree that it’s a nice effort. And that team might be competitive, depending on the offense. I agree with the comment that Towles is worth more than Marte. If I recall, Bard has a reputation as a poor defensive catcher. I also agree that Harden is likely to get a higher salary in free agency. If Harden is added to the rotation, sending Moehler to the rotation, I don’t think the Astros have to sign both Hawkins and Gonzalez—just one will be OK, with Gervacio joining the bullpen. That additional money could go toward a more reliable 3d base offensive option, e.g., Polanco, Branyan. I like the idea of Catalonotta on the bench. But if necessary to add more dollars to fortifying third base, I would opt for saving $1 million by signing minor league free agent Shelly Duncan for the offense-oriented reserve outfielder position.

I think you could be $1 to $2 million short on the raise that Wandy could justify in arbitration. But I think the real key to your proposal is whether Harden can be signed that cheaply. I don’t know if Brad Penny can be acquired that cheaply either, and I’m not sold on his health holding up.

by clack on Nov 25, 2009 8:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

should read “sending Moehler to the bullpen”

by clack on Nov 25, 2009 8:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Astros could get Harden that cheaply, by the way, I would like the addition. Harden basically has to be pitched on 5 or 6 days of rest, meaning his turn is passed several times in the year. But with Moehler as the swing man, the Astros should be able to manage that.

by clack on Nov 25, 2009 8:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You got me thinking about the role of Moehler with the team. Given his flexibility, it would be interesting to take a shot at a guy like Harden, Penny, Dusch, Lowry etc. With Moehler, they could go with a 5.5 pitcher rotation. Moehler could take a spot start here and there and give the other pitcher a break. I know Harden was a little upset last year as he felt he was “over-used”. Might be a thought.

by astro_boy on Nov 25, 2009 10:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty sure

Harden will get way more than that. That’s one of the keys to next season: how much can $5M buy at 3B, SP, and Closer? Can it get a Harden or Randy Wolf, or will $5M only buy you a high risk guy like Duchsherer or a lower ceiling guy like Pineiro? Will Miggy take $5M, or are you going to have to settle much lower for $5M (like Feliz or Adam Kennedy)? Will Mike Gonzalez take $5M, or will you have to spend that much just to keep Hawk? The market is yet to be determined and when it is, a lot of roster decisions will be clearer.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 25, 2009 11:03 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Harden made $7M last year. He’s an injury risk and I don’t think he turned many heads over the past season. He was inconsistent at best and gave up a lot of longballs. That being said, he’s dominant when healthy. I believe he is looking for a 3 year deal and I think the Stros could take a shot at him with a decent incentive laden contract. Perhaps a 2 year deal with the third guarenteed if he makes 50 starts over 2 years. He would be a nice addition to the rotation.

by astro_boy on Nov 25, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not a fan of Harden

doesn’t go deep into games often and is injury prone.

by goingforthecorner on Nov 30, 2009 2:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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