GM for the day: What would you do if Ed Wade handed you the key to the Astros?

Offer arbitration to Valverde, Hakwins, and Tejada. Of those three, I’m pretty sure only Hawkins accepts, and I assume his payout is likely $5 million.

My offer sheets for the arb eligible players are as follows: Wandy: $5 million | Pence: $2.5 million | Kepp: $3 million.

To Sheets, Duch, Harden, and whomever else I’m missing from the injured but great list, I’m offering the following deal: 1yr $5 million, with a $2 million bonus for 120 IP, and additional $2 million for 160IP. Additionally (I don’t know if this is in fact legal), if they amass 160IP, that kicks in a second year worth $10 million.

Noah Lowry gets a 1yr $3 million guaranteed deal, with $2 million in incentives if he amasses 130IP.

Hawkins is the closer, with the bullpen rounded out by whomever doesn’t make the starting rotation. For bench guys, I’m just slotting in whomever we have that can play in the system. 3B can by the mix and match of Kepp/Blum/Johnson, but if I’m also trying to shop Keppinger as much as possible to see what I can get for him this offseason.

That could be a potential starting rotation of:

Oswalt
Wandy
One of Sheets/Duch/Harden
Norris
Lowry

With Paulino and Bazardo waiting in the wings/possibly starting to limit the usage of the Lowry/Sheets/Duch/Harden.

I could also go another route where I just hold tight with what we have. Re-sign Hawkins and then have a starting rotation of:

Oswalt
Wandy
Norris
Paulino
Moehler

And hope that Wright comes along this winter to push Moehler out. The savings I would just put towards the draft/2011.

I live in the south east but for some reason I get calls from a school in the 713 area code. A couple times I’ve dreamed it was the Astros calling.

Offer arbitration to Valverde, Tejada, and Hawkins if they accept great if not great.

Infield:
3B if Tejada does not take arbitration I’m going with the competition/platoon of Blum, Kepp, and Johnson. Maybe a rule 5 pick for competition. SS is Manzella, with Kepp being the backup option for w/e reason. 2B and 1B are locked with Matsui and Berkman I know Matsui is not ideal but he’s getting paid to play and he needs to play. I’m also hoping for a bounce back year for Matsui, it is a contract year after all. At catcher I’m playing Towles with Q backing up to get a better evaluation of what we have with Towles. Maysonet is the other backup infielder, although a couple left handed hitting infielders would be brought in to compete during spring training.

Outfield:
Pence, Bourn, Lee not changing backups Abercrombie and Ramirez unless a left handed NRI can come in and claim a backup spot. I’m leaving Bogusevic in AAA for another year of seasoning, with maybe a mid to sept call up.

Starting Rotation:
Oswalt, Rodriguez, Norris and Paulino I’m looking for someone serviceable to take that 5th spot and move Moehler as a swing man back to the bullpen for long relief or as a spot starter. Paulino will stay in the rotation all year to take his lumps, Norris I’m watching his innings and pitches and will move him to the bullpen if necessary. Wright and Bazardo will start the year in the minors.

Bullpen:
You have the returning names Sampson, Arias, Fulchino, Byrdak and Gervacio, that leaves 3 spots, 2 if a starter is signed. If neither Hawkins or Valverde return via arbitration I’m going out and looking for that veteran relieve to sign like a Russ Springer type. Someone to keep the youngins in line essentially. The other spot(s) I’ll acquire via waiver wire or rule 5.

Goal:
You’ll notice I’m avoiding names of specific free agents, I’m the type of person that let’s the chips fall where they may, so I’m not trying to invest to much into the free agent market. If I were being paid to do the actual GM job I’m looking at advanced statistics and scout reports. The whole goal of this team is to see who is the future and who is not i.e. Towles, Paulino, Manzella, Johnson, Norris, and to even a certain extent Bourn (can he repeat his performance) and Pence (what type of hitter is he going to be). Drayton wants to save some money, I’ll save him some money (possibly at the cost of my job =P) but with an eye towards the future. The reality is the Astros have hamstringed themselves with the Lee, Oswalts and Berkman contracts, and unless Drayton plans on increasing payroll he’s going to have to wait 2-3 years for some of these prospects to come up.

The Twins and Marlins operate on budgets that are well below what the Astros spend so It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Astros can be competitive even with the huge contracts. But it takes smart moves and becoming more efficient with your spending, which means stepping away from the risky moves such as a Ben Sheets or a Rich Harden. It also takes a transformation in the philosophy of the organization and the willingness to make that transformation because it will take some time.

Here is what I would do
Trade pence to LAA for Brandon Wood and a player to be named LAA going to resign Figgins he plays 3rd
C Kelly Shoppach Cle Non Tender we pick him up 3mil
C Jason Castro He learns from Shoppach 400 k
1st Berkman 14 m
2nd Matsui 5m
3rd Brandon Wood 400k
SS Manzella 400k
CF Bourn 3.5 m
OF LEE 19 m
OF Free agent Austin kearns 2.5m
Util keppinger 1.5
Util Bobby Crosby SS,3,2 1.5 m
Free agent OF Rocco Baldelli 1.5 m

SP Oswalt 15m
Wandy 5m
Sheets 5m
Norris 400k
paulino 400k
Free agent Mark Prior see if he has anything Minor league offer
PEN
Byrdak 1m
Sampson 700 k
Gervacio 400k
Fulchino 400k
Arias 440k
Closer Hawkins 4m

I would take a look at Prior and if Hawkins leaves offer the closer job to Brett Myers 5m to 8 m

I don’t have time to suggest a full team; if I become inspired I might do so later. But I have given thought to the arbitration issue, and what I would do in Wade’s shoes. In my view, the state of the Astros’ farm system means that arbitration should be offered to all Type A players.

I think the reluctance to offer arbitration is based on Drayton McLane’s fears of the budgetary havoc it could cause. However, McLane is a sophisticated businessman. He holds a MBA, and I’m sure he has made many decisions involving risk analysis, hedging, etc. So I would present a full-fledged risk analysis like any quantitative management MBA grad should be aware of. The estimated probabilities associated with each possible outcome would be developed. In the worst case outcomes, McLane might have to raise the budget X%, but the risk of that happening is only 5% (for example). However, that would be balanced against an analysis of the value of the extra draft choices to the franchise. Basically I would want to suggest rational risk/reward decisions to McLane, so that he could apply his true risk preferences. I’m sure he has made analytical risk/reward decisions like this with respect to securities and other aspects of his businesses. I would also offer hedge strategies, including an analysis of trade contingencies if too many players accept arbitration. As part of possible hedge strategies, I would investigate the possibility of exotic insurance to cover part of the risks.

I have this idea (perhaps naive) that if the arbitration risk/reward decisions are presented to McLane in a highly analytic way, he will arrive at better decisions than he has made in the past with respect to offering arbitration.

To do that, I’d first try to trade Jeff Keppinger to the Yankees for Kevin Russo; they get a proven utility infielder, while we take a risk on their kid and get $1-2 million off the payroll. I don’t know that they’d take the trade, but they might, and it’s the first move I’d attempt. If it doesn’t work out, explore other similar trade possibilities for Kepp—we don’t need both him and Blum.

The second order of business is to get Kazuo Matsui off the roster by any means necessary. Try Japan as well as other MLB teams. Offer to pay for all but $1MM of his contract if we have to—we can match his performance with an MLB minimum guy, so any payroll space we can get is gravy.

Offer arbitration to Valverde and Hawkins, but not Tejada. I don’t see any reason for Tejada not to accept arbitration—he’ll almost certainly get paid more than he would on the open market, and he likes it here. So we’d just end up with an overpaid third baseman. We’re trying to shed payroll, not increase it.

Hawkins may accept arbitration. If so, we’re going to be paying him $4-5 million, which is about what we’ve saved so far by cutting Kaz and Kepp. Now we’ve got our closer; if he declines arbitration, awesome. Pick up a similarly priced closer on the open market and glory in our draft picks. Regardless, after the closer is taken care of, we still have $15MM to spend.

In the rule 5 draft, pick three players: First, an MLB-ready pitcher, the kind of guy without a ton of upside but who can contribute now in either bullpen or rotation. Second, a younger, high-upside pitcher who will be buried on the roster; perhaps a guy with closer potential down the road. Third, a 2B/utility infielder to complement whoever we got in the Keppinger trade—perhaps a super-utility guy like Brian Dinkelman, depending on what the scouts say. Waive, trade, or non-tender if necessary to free up space for FA signings.

Either our rule 5 infield pick or Kevin Russo will be our starting second baseman. Tommy Manzella is our starting shortstop.

All of that payroll we shed is for third base, which is where we’re going to try and minimize the losses to our offense if the young guys don’t hit well. I want to see Chone Figgins pursued on a multi-year deal. His versatility means he will certainly be useful to us down the road, and he’s the youngest proven third baseman on the market—by proven I mean coming off both a good year and a consistent career. If he wants more than $11MM per year, scratch the deal and bide time with a one-year guy like Tejada or Beltre.

J.R. Towles is our starting catcher, and Humberto Quintero is our backup catcher. Castro will start the season at AAA and won’t come up until the middle of the year, contingent on his performance at Round Rock.

In Spring Training, trust our coaches and scouts while formulating the starting rotation. Between Norris, Paulino, Wright, Fulchino, and whoever we grabbed in the rule 5 draft, select the three pitchers the coaches feel are most ready for a starting rotation job. Brian Moehler will be a long reliever in the bullpen. Jeff Fulchino will be the setup guy if he’s not in the rotation; otherwise, Alberto Arias.

If Drew Locke is not picked in the rule 5 draft, he will be our fourth outfielder. Otherwise, Abercrombie, Ramirez, Bourgeois, etc.