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Rule 5 Draft: AL Central - The Indians have a farm

So far it seems there is one team in each division which will dominate the rule 5 eligibility selection.  Last time, it was the Yankees.  For the AL Central, it's the Indians, though the Twins also have some interesting players.  This list contains more true prospects, players 21-25 years old at more or less age-appropriate levels of play.  On the flip side, many of these players may not be quite ready to contribute at the big league level; however, being pitchers, it's always possible to simply bury them in the bullpen and use them only in low pressure blowout situations.

I've changed up the format a little this time to make things more readable and informative.  Let me know what you think!  Please also note that I had a difficult time finding lists of eligible players, and couldn't find one at all for the White Sox, who have been consequently left out of this roundup.  If there are any players I missed or factual errors regarding the ones listed here, please let me know in the comments.

With all of that out of the way, let's proceed to the players.

Star-divide

Twins

  • Matthew Fox (27, RHP).  27-year old starting pitcher Matthew Fox used to be a hot prospect for the Twins, before a shoulder injury in 2005 threatened his career.  After recovering from the injury, he moved on to put in good performances for the next four years, culminating in a solid season starting for the Twins' AA affiliate this year.  He strikes out over 7 batters per nine innings with a decent walk rate, and has posted under 4 ERA every season in the last four years.  His age is a problem, and his ceiling is probably as a #5 starter, but he might serve to add a little depth to the pitching staff.  His 150+ solid innings this year as a starting pitcher are the primary reason for my interest in him.
  • Brian Dinkelman (26, 2B).  A strong defensive second baseman, Dinkelman has also demonstrated a solid bat in his last four years with the Twins organization.  So far he has topped out at AA, but not due to lack of ability; he batted .296/.383/.440 this year, demonstrating good strike zone discipline and a bit of power in his compact swing.  Dinkelman has been consistently patient throughout his career, and he doesn't strike out much.  The only real downside is that he's a 26-year old AA player, but it's worth keeping in mind that he was a 6th-round draft pick out of college in 2006, so he's only had three full seasons in the organization.  He reportedly has the versatility and range to play a little backup shortstop, so he could be a useful utility infielder capable of competing for a starting job as well.
  • Rene Tosoni (23, CF).   One of the younger players on this list, 23-year old Tosoni is a bonafide prospect, though not a top prospect.  He was this year's Futures Game MVP, and he's an average center fielder with decent power and the patience to take his walks.  His youth is both a plus and a minus; on the one hand, he'd be a nice addition to the system, but on the other hand, this season was his first appearance in AA, where he played 122 games.  His batting line was a respectable .271/.360/.454.  As a center fielder, he would be a good defensive backup for the outfield, but it's questionable whether his bat is ready for the big leagues.  He might stick on the roster, or he might bounce back to the Twins at some point during the season.

Tigers

  • Lester Oliveros (21, RHP). At 21 years old, Lester Oliveros is a promising young pitcher with a "true closer mentality", an above average fastball, and a plus slider.  He managed to jump directly from Class A Advanced to AAA this season, though he only pitched two innings at AAA.  His strikeout/walk rate is excellent, and his FIP is much better than his low-4s ERA.  He's more of a prospect than an MLB-ready pitcher, but he could be buried in the bullpen on the active roster and sent down to AAA for more seasoning come 2011.
  • Brayan Villarreal (22, RHP)Another prospect type, flame-throwing Villareal is only 22, and hasn't made it anywhere close to the big league roster--in fact, he's only pitched in class A.  His work there, however, was excellent, striking out 10+ batters per nine innings, walking less than three, and posting under three ERA and FIP... as a starting pitcher.  Other than inning count (Villarreal pitched 103.1), that's nearly as good as our own top pitching prospect, Jordan Lyles--albeit a few years older.  If we want to fortify our future organizational pitching depth at the expense of a 25-man roster spot, Villarreal would be a great candidate to pick.

Indians

  • Paolo Espino (22, RHP).  Just barely scratching AA this year, Paolo Espino's best pitch is his plus curveball.  He also features a low-90s fastball, and posted good numbers as a starting pitcher at the Indians' Class A Advanced affiliate this year.  He should be considered yet another young guy who's a year to a year and a half away from being big league ready, but his average fastball and above average secondary pitches give him some decent starter potential.  Think of him as a right-handed version of the Wandy Rodriguez type.
  • Frank Herrmann (25, RHP). Despite never posting eye-popping strikeout numbers, 25-year old Herrmann has earned a reputation as an dependable strike-throwing pitcher within the Indians farm system, and he's big league ready now.  He throws a power sinker which sits in the low-90s, as well as a hard slider and a decent changeup.  His best attribute is that he keeps the walks down, with a 1.54 BB/9 rate at AAA this year.  According to Indians Prospect Insider, he applies his Harvard-educated intelligence on the mound.  With plenty of experience as both a starter and reliever, he's an attractive candidate to add some depth to the big league pitching roster, though his potential tops out as a back of the rotation starter.
  • Yohan Pino (24, RHP).  Once considered one of the top arms in the Twins organization, Pino was sent over to the Indians in the Carl Pavano trade.  The interesting thing about Pino is that he doesn't have great stuff, at least in terms of his fastball; it sits in the mid-to-upper 80s.  He uses a good slider and curveball to consistently strike out batters at an above-average rate, while limiting walks, often walking under two batters per nine innings.  His sub-3 ERA as a starter this year is no fluke, as his FIP demonstrates similar numbers, and his BABIP and LOB% are right where they should be.  With ten 5+ inning starts (nine of them good) at AAA this year, the crafty 24-year old may be big league ready now.
  • Erik Stiller (25, RHP).  Ah, the wonders of a deep farm system.  25-year old Stiller is yet another interesting pitcher, signed by the Indians as an undrafted free agent out of Princeton in 2006.  At 6'5", his fastball tops out in the mid-90s, and he also works in a cutter, curveball, and changeup.  He's mostly worked as a reliever, posting good strikeout numbers and a solid FIP the last three years in the Indians farm system.  His walk rate has risen the past couple seasons, but so has his strikeout rate.  With two seasons at AA under his belt, he may be a big league ready middle reliever.
  • Neil Wagner (25, RHP).  Last Indians pitching prospect, I promise.  At 25 years old, Wagner has one of the best fastballs in the Indians system, and he uses it to good effect, striking out over ten batters per nine innings.  He had a great full season at AA this year, but his walk rate did rise to over four batters per nine.  Nonetheless, his 2.95 ERA demonstrated the effectiveness of his pure, unadulterated stuff.  According to Indians Prospect Insider, he lacks a quality secondary pitch, but it would be hard to be disappointed with a rule 5 pick who wields a fastball which tops out at 98 MPH.
  • Jose Constanza (26, CF).  A definite Michael Bourn type, Jose Constanza is a speedy, good defensive center fielder with the patience to take some walks, but little power in his bat.  He's good at making contact and steals plenty of bases, but with a slugging percentage that looks more like a batting average, don't expect much power out of him.  Nonetheless, 26-year old Constanza is another good candidate for fourth outfielder, after spending two solid seasons at Class AA.  He could also see some use as a late inning pinch runner.

Royals

  • Ed Lucas (27, 3B).  27-year old Ed Lucas is the only rule 5 eligible Royals player I found particularly interesting, but interesting the Quad-A third baseman definitely is.  With patience and pop, Lucas is another player who might be a reasonable alternative to Chris Johnson, having posted a .290/.388/.448 batting line at the Royals' AA Affiliate this season, and nearly as good the season before.  The only thing that worries me about Lucas is that he has never hit well at AAA, but the sample sizes are so small that they are likely the culprit rather than any lack of ability on Lucas' part.  Please note that the birth date listed on FanGraphs is apparently incorrect; Lucas was born in 1982, not 1981.

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I think it would be fun to get one of the higher-upside, 24-and-under guys (Oliveros, Villareal, Espino, Pino) in the hopes that we can get karmic revenge for losing Johan Santana…of course, ending up as the next Wes Wright would be just fine by me, too!

Of the guys you’ve got listed, Oliveros and Pino seem like the best guys to take a flyer on out of this group.

by AstroAndy on Nov 24, 2009 10:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Too bad none of the pitchers are lefthanded. With Wright possibly out of the LOOGY role, a Rule 5 LHP might stick on the roster.

Although I’m also guilty of saying that not-ready-for-ML pitchers can be hidden in the back of the bullpen, in reality that is easier said than done, particularly if heavy bullpen use forces the team to use the hidden player more than they would like.

Oliveros and Herrmann strike me as the two best gambles among the pitchers. Tosoni is an interesting idea. I wonder what his defense is like…he has played a lot more RF than CF. Given that he hits for a bit of power, one wonders if Tosoni could compete with Bourgeois for a back up outfield slot. Tosoni hasn’t stolen many bases, though, and he is a LHB which can’t hit LHP.

by clack on Nov 24, 2009 11:00 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Good points.

Personally, I like the look of Brian Dinkelman, though. We are starved for infield depth. He is old for his level, but he began his pro career late, and it looks like he should have been playing at AAA for at least part of this season.

He might be ready, and I suspect he’d project to be an average to above average MLB second baseman. We need players like that.

by OremLK on Nov 24, 2009 11:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

One other note about Dinkelman: Apparently he played a lot of LF this year to increase his versatility and give another prospect a chance at 2B. So he could potentially be a super-utility guy as well.

by OremLK on Nov 24, 2009 11:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My primary concern about Dinkelman is that he has only played as high as AA, and that makes me think that he will be unlikely to beat out Maysonet or Keppinger for a utility infielder spot. But one thing I like about a pick from the Twins system is that they are usually well instructed; the Twins have a reputation for developing fundamentally sound players. Dinkelman reminds me of a Drew Sutton with lessor offensive ability, and Sutton never really got a chance in spring camp.

by clack on Nov 25, 2009 6:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It’s definitely a concern, but keep in mind that he’s spent a season and a half at AA because he’s thoroughly blocked at the AAA level by a bunch of other guys. I think he would have spent at least the second half of 2009 at Rochester if the Twins didn’t have so much infield depth. So, while he may not have faced AAA pitching, he at least has the playing time under his belt.

by OremLK on Nov 25, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus there's always the option that the Twins don't take him back

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Nov 25, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think we need to look at 3rd base and possibly 2nd base we can always hope uncle Drayton in a few years would sign a free agent pitcher or 2. Infield prospects are what we need to start getting

by wadero on Nov 25, 2009 7:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Athletics Nation had a blog on Rule 5 picks. They want the A’s to pick Pino and also a pitcher left unprotected by the Rays, Aneury Rodriguez. Rodriguez is 22 years old with excellent K and BB stats in A ball. The blog says:

Tampa Bay traded away Hammel to Colorado for him last March, after Hammel and Niemann’s successful spring training performances left Tampa Bay with a glut of major-league ready starting pitchers. Surprisingly, the Rays opted not to protect that investment this year, clearly gambling that Rodriguez is far enough away that no team will pick him. I’m afraid their gamble won’t pay off. As a 21-year-old in the AA Southern League, Rodriguez allowed 122 hits in 142 innings with a K-to-walk ratio of 111-to-59. In 588 minor-league innings, Rodriguez has struck out nearly a batter per inning with a k-to-walk ratio of 8-to-3.1.

by clack on Nov 30, 2009 7:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

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