Hopefully this isn't a repeat of the Johan Santana decision
by clack on Nov 21, 2009 9:29 AM CST
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The Astros left Koby Clemens and Drew Locke, among others, unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. That seems like a risk to me. Hopefully, Ed Wade is right when he says he put himself in the place of the other GMs and felt that they would not be players who could be kept on a ML roster for a full season. But the Astros reached that same conclusion regarding a young pitcher named Johan Santana and he was selected in the Rule 5 draft. I'm not saying that Clemens or Locke can become franchise type players, like Santana, but it does show that teams can miscalculate when it comes to protecting Rule 5 candidates.
Teams think the way Wade has in this case and still get surprised when players, who don't appear advanced enough to stay on a major league roster, do get picked and succeed. In the recent past, the Mets believed that A-level catcher Jesus Flores wasn't advanced enough to make a ML roster. However, he was drafted by the Nationals a couple of years ago to be the team's third string catcher, but ended up showing that he was good enough to be a starting catcher--and continues on the Nats' ML roster. Outfielder Brian Barton was thought to be safe, given a down year in the minors, but became a successful Rule 5 pick of the Cardinals in 2007, showing decent production as a platoon player in the 2008 season. Dan Uggla is similar to Locke, to the extent that he showed good production in AA but Arizona left him unprotected because he was viewed as too old for that level. Uggla was drafted by the Marlins and became one of best offensive 2d basemen in baseball. Josh Hamilton is another recent example of an outfielder who was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft and became an All Star after he was selected. The Rays apparently felt that Hamilton's troubled history and low development level (his recent play was in A ball) would keep teams from drafting him.
I honestly felt that the Astros should give Locke a shot at competing for a major league roster spot as a back up outfielder. Given his advanced age, I don't think AAA will do anything for him other than make him a Quad A player. That would seem to make him a perfect candidate for the Rule 5 pick. Wade's decisions must indicate that he doesn't think that Locke can compete for a major league back up position with the Astros are anywhere else. Clemens is a longer shot for a Rule 5 drafting team, but his age and versatility as an emergency back up at several positions might help. If a team has room to keep a third string catcher, like the Jesus Flores example, he might get drafted. In both cases, the eye popping stats for Clemens and Locke will draw some attention. Clemens led all minor league players in RBIs, with 123. Locke was the best run producer in the Texas League, despite missing a month or so with an injury, and the last I looked he continues to hit well in the Venezuela Winter League.
I certainly hope that Wade's calculation is correct, and this doesn't come back to bite the Astros.
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I agree about Locke
I’m not too worried about Clemens, since he was at such a low level and more importantly isn’t any good at any defensive positions. But Locke probably should have been our fourth outfielder this season regardless, due to his age, so I’m not sure I understand the decision to leave him open to the draft.
I hope you’re right about Clemens. And I agree that he is less likely to be drafted than Locke. But it only takes 1 GM out of 31 to decide to take a $50 K gamble on him. And if a team wants a little publicity lift from the Rule 5 draft, the fact that he is Roger Clemens’ son will provide that to a team.
Russo
OremLK, you have been noting the Yankees’ Russo in the past. He was protected on the 40 man roster yesterday by the Yankees.
If the Astros want a cheaper option to replace Michaels as a power bat....
on the bench, I would recommend Shelly Duncan (Chris Duncan’s brother, and son of the Cardinal’s pitching coach). In order to prepare for the Rule 5 draft, the Yankees removed him from the 40 man roster and outrighted him to AAA. He is one of the better power bats among Quad-A players in the minor leagues. He is 29 years old and put up a .916 OPS, with .276 ISO, for the Yankees AAA team last year. That’s no fluke, his OPS in 08 and 07 in AAA: .848 and .947. Duncan has had brief appearances in the majors when the Yankees suffered outfield or 1st base injuries, and his best ML season was 2007 when he had a .883 OPS for the Yankees. Duncan can play corner outfield or 1st base, but is a mediocre defensive player. ZIPS projects an OPS+ of 109 with 21 HRs for Shelly Duncan if he plays in the majors.
Re: Locke
Now, I’m not one to put a whole lot of stock in numerical projection/equivalent systems, but let’s run through this exercise.
Locke’s MLE from this year at Corpus Christi:
.275 AVG / .314 OBP / .412 SLG / .726 OPS
And that MLE corrects Locke’s unsustainably high BABIP levels…down to .312 BABIP from an actual BABIP of .376.
That projection contains better numbers than Yordany Ramirez has put up in Round Rock the last two seasons. The only reasonable explanations I can think of are that Ramirez is about a year and a half younger than Locke, or maybe the scouts see a hole in Locke’s swing that would keep his power from translating to the bigs. A .726 OPS would play quite well as a backup corner OF for a team that already has a defensive speedster to cover CF. I have my fingers crossed that we get to keep Locke.
CHONE had a similar (slightly lower) OPS projection for Locke, but it was over .700 (without looking it up, I’m thinking .710), in fact Locke is the only Astros minor leaguer who had a ML projected OPS over .700. The projection systems presumably are more sophisticated at forecasting major league stats for minor leagues than just using MLEs.
The problem with both Locke and Clemens is they played in good hitter’s parks. I think that will keep teams from picking them in the Rule 5 draft. Clemens, especially, has to be looked at highly suspiciously because of his breakout season in the best hitter’s park in the minor leagues. The only problem I forsee is both of these guys can be picked by teams in the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 draft and don’t have to be on the major league roster. That’s why Locke may be gone next season.
Most ballpark factors I’ve seen shows Whataburger Field in Corpus to slightly depress runs. It is not a hitter’s park by any of those measures. For instance, if you go to minorleaguesplits.com and neutralize Drew Locke’s 2009 stats for “ballpark,” his batting average increases by 6 points and his OPS increases by 13 points.
damnit
how the hell did we not protect locke, i hate that decision, why the hell did we protect englebrook and not locke? just because locke is older? it doesnt really matter when one guy blows and the other leads AA in RBIs damn you ed
I was surprised Locke wasn't protected
Ed Wade made me look stupid. Thanks, Ed. I do wonder if:1) The fact that Locke is recovering from hand injury was a factor in the decision? I know Locke has been playing this winter in Venezuela, but still an injury is an injury. 2) The surplus of OF played a part in the decision?
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Pretty sure
Locke will be drafted. Not sure if he will stick somewhere else, but it’s worth $50K for another club to find out.
Maybe
Ed Wade thinks he can draft somebody better than Locke with the roster spot, since we will be 8th in the draft?
Actually, we're better than 8th in the Rule 5
Six of the seven teams ahead of us have completely filled 40-man rosters and can’t take on a Rule 5 pick…so we get second choice.
That’s pretty good then. Maybe I’ll put together a review of rule 5 possibilities for a FanPost later on.
Wade left 3 slots open on the 40 man roster, I think.
Presumably, at least one of those slots is expected to be filled by a Rule 5 pick. Obviously, that leaves a tight fit to sign the team’s existing free agents. If Michaels and Erstad were re-signed, then there wouldn’t be room to sign one relief pitcher (between Hawkins and Valverde) and Tejada (or any other free agent 3d baseman). Put another way, Wade has expressed an interest in re-signing 4 players but would only have two 40 man slots after the Rule 5 pick. That could mean that Wade wouldn’t make a Rule 5 selection unless it is a player who he feels very strongly will stick on the Astros roster.
On the other hand, he could decide to sign whatever number of free agents he likes and then just waive some existing players on the 40 man roster, hoping they clear waivers. There are several players on the 40 man roster who I would consider waive-able, but who knows Wade’s thinking. For example, I am surprised that Brad James was protected. The liklihood that he will contribute on the major league level at some point seems to be declining.
I think he'll draft at least one
The implication lately has been more and more than the Astros will not be signing free agents. I’m beginning to suspect that only one of Hawkins/Valverde/Tejada will be re-signed—probably Hawkins, because he is the cheapest.
This may not be a bad thing. I’ve been starting to look over available players in the Rule 5 Draft, beginning with the Yankees and Red Sox, and there are some seriously interesting prospect-age players on those teams alone. Even if he grabs a couple of guys and they wind up sitting on their thumbs in the bench/bullpen for most of the year, that’s one more way he can fortify the system for 2011/12.
Also...
Rather than waiving players, he could be exploring some trades too, we don’t really know what he’s thinking at this point.
Also the non-tender deadline is still to come. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros non-tender some players, which would free up space. I keep reading that Chris Sampson is a non-tender candidate. I probably don’t agree with doing that, but at least some people speculate that he could be non-tendered.
After spending a couple of hours looking at rule 5 eligibles in the AL East, I’m starting to think Wade should just fill all three spots with draftees, then trade, waive, or non-tender guys to make room for any free agents he happens to sign. Rule 5 this season is definitely a nice-looking class of young players.
The fact that Carlos, Michael, and Hunter will be in the Astros OF for the next few years blocks Locke which by the time he would be able to take over an OF slot, he’d be at an extremely advanced age. I think he’d make a nice 4th OF but I believe Wade and Co. are looking at adding a veteran OF to the major league bench. Like you I’m a bit disappointed that he’s unprotected and feel he’ll be moving onto something else, but it’s not going to make me lose any sleep.
Clemens if anyone takes a chance on him it’d have to be a weak AL team since he’s having a tough time finding a position.
Of course both these guys still have to stick for the Stros to lose them, and at this point it almost seems like the Astros are trying to avoid the Santana mistake buy adding all the pitchers they can.
by Timothy De Block on Nov 22, 2009 2:35 PM CST reply actions
hands on owner?
We’ve all heard that McLane is a “hands-on” owner (some would use the more negative word “meddling”). But I just saw this on a previous Tag’s blog at astros.com, which surprised me.
The Astros must have their 40-man roster set by 11 p.m., which is why club officials spent most of this week in meetings at Minute Maid Park going over the roster. Astros manager Brad Mills sat in on the meetings, along with the front office and members of the player development staff. Owner Drayton McLane participated on Monday and Tuesday.
Drayton McLane participated in the meetings to decide whom to protect on the 40 man roster? Doesn’t that seem like an unusual level of participation in operations decisions by an owner?
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