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Astros Farm System Fixed?


Looking at the likely rosters for next year's farm teams, I think the talent is close to being restored.   Here's my analysis:

 

Round Rock:

You'll have Castro (top 100 prospect), Chris Johnson (thinking Houston will go with the Blum/FA/Keppinger platoon again), Bogusevic, DeLome, Vallejo, Van Ostrand, Locke, and Sutil.  All of these players still project as major league contributors.

In the rotation, you'll have Trinidad, Wright -or- Paulino, Wilton Lopez -or- Yorman Bazardo, and Sergio Perez.  Again, all of those players are still prospect-age and project as future MLB contributors.  The bullpen will feature guys like Lo, Meszaros, and Englebrook, all of whom faired really well in the AFL.  When you factor in that the Houston roster will have prospect-age players like Norris, Gervacio, and Arias, the later-level farm is set IMO. 

 

Corpus:

In AA you've got guys coming off of MONSTER years (Clemens, Gaston, Shuck) as well as former high draft picks (Einertson, Flores), so the outfield should be stacked.  I'll concede that the infield will be mediocre, with low-ceiling guys like Meyer, Cabral, Simunic, and Suarez.

The AA rotation will be top notch, with at least one of the Lexington studs in place.  I see a starting 5 of Lyles, Arguello, Abad, Cespedes, and Hudspeth.  Lyles, Arguello, and Abad have all had really good numbers so far.  The bullpen may not have any top 100 guys, but will be filled with players who are still very young (Urckfitz, Tilghman, Hallberg, Mowdy, Powell).

 

A+/A/A-/Rookie:

The lower levels will feature many highly drafted guys (Austin, Steele, Mier, Wikoff, Meyer, Hernandez).  I think Mier, Austin, and Steele are all future top 100 prospects.  Under the radar prospects like JD Martinez, Ebert Rosario, Jose Altuve, and Eric Castro add depth.

The 4some of Seaton, Bono, Greenwalt, and Dydalewics make for a solid high A rotation (unless one or more ends up in Corpus).  High ceiling guys like David Duncan, Dallas Keuchel, and Brandt Walker add depth, and that's without mention several younger players who have shown potential (Colton Pitkin, Luis Cruz, etc).

Star-divide

Overall, I think with 1 or 2 more good drafts, the HOuston farm will be top notch.  Heck, in 2 years, we could have up to 7 MLB-ready outfielders with nowhere to play because of Bourn and Pence.  I just hate seeing "shambles" continually associated with the farm because while that was true 3 years ago, I don't think it holds today.

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Here’s a graph I put together of all the farm hands I feel have MLB futures and what type of player they project as

Every Day Position Player:
Chris Johnson, 3B (MLB)
Brian Bogusevic, CF (AAA)
Jason Castro, C (AA)
Collin DeLome, LF (AA)
Jon Gaston, LF (AFL)
Koby Clemens, 1B (A+)
Jack Shuck, CF (A+)
TJ Steele, RF (A+)
Jay Austin, CF (A)
JD Martinez, DH (A-)
Jiovanni Mier, SS (Rk)

Front End Starter:
Bud Norris (MLB)
Jordan Lyles (A)
Ross Seaton (A)

Bench Player:
JR Towles, C (MLB)
Yordany Ramirez, RF (AAA)
Jose Vallejo, 2B (AFL)
German Duran, 2B (AFL)
Vladamir Sutil, SS (AA)
Jimmy Van Ostrand, DH (AA)
Josh Flores, CF (AA)
Ebert Rosario, 3B (A+)
Andy Simunic, UT (A+)
Brandon Wikoff, UT (A)
Barry Butera, SS (A)
Jose Altuve, 2B (A-)
Ben Orloff, IF (A-)
Eric Castro, 3B (A-)
Grant Hogue, OF (Rk)
Brian Kemp, OF (Rk)
Bubby Williams, C (Rk)
Enrique Hernandez, IF (Rk)
Jonathan Meyer, IF (Rk)

Back End Starter:
Wes Wright (MLB)
Yorman Bazardo (MLB)
Polin Trinidad (AAA)
Sergio Perez (AA)
David Arguello (AA)
Fernando Abad (AA)
Leandro Cespedes (A+)
Chris Hicks (A+)
Robert Bono (A)
Brad Dydalewicz (A)
Kyle Greenwalt (A)
David Duncan (A)
Colton Pitkin (A-)
Dallas Keuchel (A-)
Luis Cruz (A-)

Reliever:
Sam Gervacio (MLB)
Brad James (AA)
Pat Urckfitz (A+)
Henry Villar (A)
Kyle Godfrey (A)
Juri Perez (Rk)
Mike Modica (Rk)
Brandt Walker (Rk)
Zack Grimmett (Rk)
BJ Hyatt (Rk)

Closer:
Chia Jen Lo (AA)
Danny Meszaros (AA)
Matt Nevarez (A)

Just my thoughts on a bored rainy Austin friday. Comments welcome!

by Snake Diggity on Nov 20, 2009 1:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I forsee

Bud Norris as a closer

by timmy_ on Nov 20, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are way overly optimistic

As everyday players I could see Castro, Meir, Delome and maybe Steele. The rest have to many major flaws to be considered everyday regulars long term.

I have doubts on all 3 of the guys you have down as everyday starters. Lyles has the least warts but his inability to develop a consistent breaking pitch is what is going to determine how good he becomes. Seaton’s mechanics make me think he might end up in the pen or have the team do a complete rebuild on his motion, and Norris seems destined to the back of the pen. I think Bushue has as much or more promise to be a TORP as Seaton or Norris

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Nov 20, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why are you guys thinking Norris for the back of the pen?

It’s true that before he developed his changeup, he projected that way, but I think now he projects more as a No. 3 starter. He did excellent work in the Round Rock rotation, needless to say, and I don’t see any reason he couldn’t repeat that—with some adjustment for level of competition—at the big league level.

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 2:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that he has #3 potential without a doubt. But he did have inconsistency issues. If he can ease that out he can have a mid 3 ERA at best. I like him in the rotation and hope he can fill out his potential but at the same time his success is limited and is a very small sample size. While i do agree with you, if he becomes anything worse than a #4 starter, he will probably be more valuable as a closer. Just because we have other guys who can fill the same role as a #4 or 5 starter that can’t do the job as a closer and he has the stuff to be.

by Subber10 on Nov 20, 2009 2:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe

The organization has screwed up his arm already and he’ll be regulated to the bullpen after injury and ineffectiveness as a starter.

by timmy_ on Nov 20, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Most

of the prospects are still too far away to write off. Austin, Steele, Shuck, Gaston have all had less than 2 years of pro ball, have shown solid skill set combined with good numbers. They’re on pace if you ask me. You can argue Bogusevic is a future 4th OF.

Same goes for the pitching. We’ll find out way more about Norris this year, but Seaton and Lyles are 19 freaking years old, have put up good #s and have all the talent we drafted them with.

I realize I forgot Bushue, but I don’t think he profiles as a top end starter. More #4 or 5.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 20, 2009 3:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Here are a few exerts from today's BA chat about the Astros top 10 that kinda explain why I feel you are being over optimistic...
Ryan D. (Moorpark, CA): Was Koby Clemen’s strong offensive season in Lancaster more a result of a ridiculous, hitter friendly park or does he actually project as a big leaguer down the line?


Ben Badler: At this point he’s already beaten a lot of people’s expectations, but the power numbers are going to come down, of course. He’s more of a doubles hitter who works the gaps than a true power hitter, though he’ll have a chance to hit for power down the road. He did tone down some of the moving parts in his swing this year, keeping his head still, shortening some of his actions and keeping a firmer foundation underneath him. The problem is he doesn’t really have a position, and the bat isn’t as palatable at first base or in a corner outfield position.
The Big Ragu (Milwaukee): I believe when all is said and done that Tanner Bushue will have a better career then either lyles or seaton. Honestly in the end a pitcher either has nasty stuff or he doesn’t and although to this point of there young careers Lyles and to a lesser degree Seaton have had more success I believe Bushue has the most upside if the boy can just stay healthy and since he hasnt had arm troubles I believe he has a breakout season in 2010. What are your thoughts. Thanks Dude.


Ben Badler: It’s possible, but I think you might be underrating Lyles who, just for reference, was born on the same exact day as Tyler Matzek, the Rockies’ outstanding first-round pick THIS year. He has the potential for three average or better pitches with potentially above-average command and a free-and-easy delivery. There’s a lot to like there.
GR (Jersey): Were Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella considered prospects or did their weak cups of coffee eliminate them?


Ben Badler: They’ll be in the top 30, but they look more like fringy big leaguers or backups. Johnson shows some flashes of ability to hit and hit for some power, but he needs to learn to work the count better, not chase so many pitches out of the zone and bring his footwork and agility up to par at third base. There’s talk within the organization that Manzella might take over their starting gig at shortstop. He does have a solid arm, hands and footwork, but he’s really more of a spray hitter without much pop, so it’s hard to see him as more than a slightly above replacement-level player at best.
Harry (Jefferson City MO): How far down the list did Bogusevic fall, and what is your opinion of his overall tools?


Ben Badler: He’s still in the 30, and with his background it’s tough to get a great read on him because he’s 25, but not really 25 in terms of his offensive development level. He’s got a pretty good idea of the strike zone and has impressive instincts in the outfield and on the bases. It’s a fairly quick swing, but he’s not a high-contact hitter so I don’t expect him to hit for a high average and his lack of power might get exploited at the next level.
GR (Jersey): What’s next for Gaston? Can he sustain the power in heavier air?


Ben Badler: Most scouts I talked to lean toward no. He can generate some loft in his swing, but guys who swing and miss that much in A-ball tend to get eaten alive by more advanced pitching.

The problem with most the OF players is that they have a mix of approach issues, injury concerns, athleticism and holes in their swings that will get exploited as they climb the organizational ladder.

The problem with both Seaton and Lyles is going to be centered around the lack of a breaking pitch, the ability to repeat their mechanics and some questions regarding their velocity. Both are guys that will need to show something against higher level competition to really take the TORP label. Lyles penchant for pitching up makes me worried that more advanced hitters will cause he a lot of problems.

Lyles get more hype than he probably deserves just because he is the top SP prospect in the Astros system. Even though the system is very pitching weak, being the top prospect will garner him much more attention than he would if he was placed in a pitching deep organization. What is the dofference between Lyles and guys like Mathew Moore, Zeke Spurill, Julio Tehran, or …..

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Nov 20, 2009 3:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My understanding re: Lyles was that he had made good progress on his curve by the end of the summer and that even if his curve was below-average to average, his changeup was relatively advanced for his age and level. Does this match up with what you’ve been hearing? Also, I hadn’t heard anything about Lyles having trouble with repeatability of pitching motion…do you have any scouting reports that call that into question?

I agree that Seaton could be a bullpen guy…if I recall correctly, when he was drafted, his secondary pitch was one of those hybrid-ish “slurve” pitches. I believe Travis Driskill worked with him in Lex to try to separate them into two distinct pitches, a curve and a slider. They tried to get his curve nailed down first, but it wasn’t very good, so they switched to the slider with better results. Fastball/Slider is a classic closer pitch-combo, and there were reports of the FB being in the neighborhood of 95mph when he was first drafted. We’ll see how he develops those secondaries.

by AstroAndy on Nov 20, 2009 6:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I think Lyles has demonstrated real improvement in his curve, from everything I’ve read; it’s now an average-ish pitch, I think. He also used to throw a cutter, I believe. It seems he has demonstrated a good propensity for developing pitches, so I wonder if that versatility will be a strength and provide him with a strong pitch inventory by the time he reaches the big league level.

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

From what I have heard Lyles repeatability issues may stem from

falling across his body and landing funny. It is more of a set up and finish issue than a mechanical issue. The problem is that normally to fix guys throwing across the body you get end up tweaking his mechanics. Everything I have heard recently about his change is that it really lacks fade and movement. What scares me the most about Lyles is that he pitches up in the zone. If he was doing this because he figured he could get A ball hitters out is one thing, but in higher levels players will feast on those FBs up in the zone.

As far as Seaton goes, he is just all out of whack. Doesn’t use his lower half, seems to have a hard time repeating a d is often out of sync. Kid is young, but he had a large velocity drop and his secondary stuff is not really improving at the rate people expect.

I really think that Bushue is the one that is going to turn out the best of the group. Nice change, getting the feel for the slider, curve not so much.

Don’t get me wrong, any team would like the have this trio, but not as the top arms in a system. I am terrified that the Astros are going to skip Lancaster with Lyles and he is going to get hammered in AA and hurt his development.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Nov 20, 2009 8:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven’t been watching Lyles all season, so I wouldn’t know, but the videos I’ve seen of him, he hasn’t been missing with his fastball up in the zone. If anything it seems like he’s missing down and away. But again, I haven’t seen that much of him so take this with a huge grain of salt. But scouts and BA seem very impressed with him regardless.

Would it actually be bad for him to skip Lancaster, regardless? That place is notoriously terrible for pitchers, and pitching there could potentially hurt him as bad or worse than skipping to a higher level.

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, let’s not forget that these guys are teenagers still. You can’t expect them to be perfect right out of high school—they ought to have a lot of development left in their pitches, command of their pitches, and even their frame (meaning their velocity may increase a little).

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you that we have to put the flaws in perspective, given their age. They are all only 1 year out of high school. At that age, all pitchers will have flaws and issues to be addressed. And, frankly, the failure rate is high for pitchers at that age. However, Lyles is viewed as a good prospect, as evidenced by the Hardball Times minor league awards review, which labeled him as the top starting pitching prospect in the Sally League.

It’s true that Lyles could be face a year of regression if he goes to AA, but Lancaster doesn’t offer a much better environment. He could get hit hard in Lancaster, and we wouldn’t know for sure if it’s the ballpark or the level of competition.

by clack on Nov 21, 2009 8:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The reports I’ve got say the curve was Bushue’s calling card and one of the main reasons he was drafted…do you have different notes?….here are mine:

PGCrosschecker: “low- to mid-70s curveball with hard, late, 12-to-6 action also grades out as a potential plus pitch”

BA: “Bushue’s curveball is a solid-average pitch”…“Bushue is unlikely to be a particularly hard thrower at the next level, but a highly-regarded curve was part of the repertoire that earned him an invitation to participate in the Astros’ pre-draft workouts”…they later said his curve was the best secondary pitch in the Astros 2009 draft class (up there with Keuechel’s change)

Bobby Heck: “We project him to have a plus fastball and a plus curveball”

ESPN: “He’s long, loose-limbed and projectable, with a future-plus curveball”

by AstroAndy on Nov 20, 2009 11:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also,

I think from looking at this, I’d like the ’stros to add 2 elite starting pitching prospects and 2 more elite middle infield prospects this coming year via draft or trade. That would make the farm system back on par with the rest of the league IMHO.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 20, 2009 3:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

asking any system to land

1 elite prospect from a draft is usually asking a lot, but is reasonable to ask as a fan. Asking them to land FOUR elite prospects in one draft? That would be a heck of a draft, and one for the ages, and here’s hoping you guys can find 4 elite prospects in one draft.

As for the Astros system, it’s headed in the right direction, but there needs to be a few more years of work. That said, as a Cubs fan, all it takes is one good draft to turn it around in regards to organizational rankings, so hey, if you guys land your multiple elite prospects, your org rank would move up a lot (for the Cubs, the 2008 draft netted us our top 3 arms right now, Jay Jackson, Andrew Cashner, and Chris Carpenter. I wouldn’t call any of them elite prospects, though. Good, yes.)

by toonsterwu on Nov 22, 2009 12:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

our definition of eilte prospect may be different. When I say elite prospect, I mean a future big league player (I consider Lyles, Seaton, Castro, and Mier all elite prospects). 2 via draft, and 2 via trade isn’t too much to ask.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 24, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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