Pondering the Astros free agent offer to LaTroy Hawkins

by Evan Hochschild on Nov 20, 2009 6:00 AM CST in Hot Stove

On the eve of full fledged free agency, the Astros have made an offer to LaTroy Hawkins. I sincerely hope that Hawk is back in the fold next season. While needs exist in the rotation as well as in the infield, LaTroy should demand a contract that's worth between $2 million and $4 million this season. True, investing that kind of money into a man who will pitch fewer than 60 innings may seem like a waste, but Hawkins may be valuable than most late inning relievers for a couple of reasons:

1) Despite being 37 years old, Hawkins' skills should not diminish much if any going into 2010. His K rate isn't what it once was, but as long as his BB numbers stay respectable Hawk will be able to provide valuable innings either as a set up man or closer. A look at his FIP vs. ERA from 2009 shows that luck was definitely in play, and a normalizing trend should occur in the upcoming season. Still- a huge part of being a bullpen contributor is not being yourself. Someone like LaTroy will be asked to maintain a lot of leads, and I would prefer to have a more proven commodity in that role than a younger player who is prone to bouts of combustability.

2) Drayton may be saying all the right things about running a tighter ship, but the reality is that the Astros' payroll is still going to be large and our resources will not be allocated efficiently. Such is life with a franchise whose minor league operations are in shambles and whose major league contract commitments are laughable in some regards. As much as we may want the Astros to be run in a sabermetrically oriented fashion, the simple fact is that it's not going to happen.

The club may spend foolishly, but Drayton has never shown that he will skimp on overall payroll. He may not have always made the moves we wanted him to, but money is available to be spent, he will spend it. We may not agree with his decisions all the time, but the track record is there. My point is that the Astros aren't like our government and its continually growing debt. At some point the chickens will come home to roost, and it won't be pretty. You can argue that the Astros' chickens are roosting as we speak, but in general the effects of the Astros' overspending is not like the effects of a government overspending. Prospects can come out of nowhere, veterans can find the fountain of youth en route to surprising seasons. The housing market isn't going to miraculously improve, and China won't embrace a more equitable exchange rate just because. Inefficiency in sports is more often the rule than the exception, but it's not always a death sentence.

What was I talking about? Oh, yea- LaTroy Hawkins. He fits in with that whole inefficiency idea I was going on (and on) about. Maybe $4 million is a little bit too much for a 5th place team with no farm system to be spending on a reliever. Ed Wade loves relievers, we know this. I'd rather him spend that $4 million on LaTroy than any other bullpen option. And yes, he is going to spend that money on a reliever. Remember Oscar Villareal? I know you do..

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I just have a feeling that he’s going to regress statistically this year, and in all honesty it’s not like Hawkins is the final piece for the Stros to be a playoff contender.

by Timothy De Block on Nov 20, 2009 7:15 AM CST reply actions

at some point

the team has to make improvements when and where they can. if a starting pitcher isn’t an option, and if chris johnson isn’t going to become evan longoria, this may be the area where the astros have to be solidify. it’s not pretty, but it is what it is.

The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.

by Evan Hochschild on Nov 20, 2009 7:39 AM CST up reply actions

which is why I think the money is better spent else where. I’d rather put that 2-4mil into 3B or a starting pitcher, rather than a bullpen guy. I think the Astros have a good bullpen, and I may be over-valuing what is in the bullpen a bit, but I think Hawkins value could be easily replaced by either someone currently in the bullpen, or off the waiver wire. Wade has done a wonderful job on the waiver wire and the rule 5 draft in getting pieces for the bullpen.

I’m not going to complain if Hawkins resigns I just think the money to sign Hawkins could be better spent towards an everyday player or someone who goes every 5 days.

by Timothy De Block on Nov 20, 2009 8:15 AM CST up reply actions

I don’t think it’s a good idea to take waiver wire claims or young pitchers and just throw them into the closer position. It fails more times than it succeeds, and sometimes it can ruin the young pitcher’s psyche. The Padres, who had a good record of internally developing relief pitchers, used to say that it is imperative to start young relief pitchers in low leverage situations and gradually move them into higher leverage situations, sometimes over a series of seasons. The Astros did that with Brad Lidge, for instance. I think the Astros need at least one veteran relief pitcher with substantial closer/set up experience. If Hawkins isn’t the right guy, or he costs too much, I would look for other free agent options, like Sherrill or Dotel.

by clack on Nov 20, 2009 9:13 AM CST up reply actions

Or Wagner, for that matter. But I can see both of your points here. The biggest argument to my mind against picking up a veteran closer is that we’re likely looking at a very ugly season coming up in 2010. The less save opportunities that come up, the less value we’re going to get from a closer. The question becomes, are you adding two saves? Five? And how many wins are you giving up by going with a replacement-level third baseman (if that’s what happens)?

We should also keep in mind that we’d not only be losing Hawkins and Valverde from the bullpen, we also may be putting at least one of the other pitchers into the rotation, whether that be Wesley Wright or whoever else. I think we have a lot of young talent in the pen, but we don’t want to stretch them too thin.

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 9:29 AM CST up reply actions

I think Sampson is someone who could step into the closers role and do an admirable job. The only concern is his injury from last year and how he bounces back from that.

I also think you can wait to sign Hawkins, like Clack mentioned about signing a bench player so early, relief pitchers just aren’t as important as an everyday player or starting pitcher. Especially with the amount of relief pitchers on the market with closing experience, why go spend 2-4 mil now when you can shop around for the best deal.

by Timothy De Block on Nov 20, 2009 10:02 AM CST up reply actions

Why Sampson?

Forgive me, but I’ve never quite understood why people keep suggesting this. I don’t think I’d want an extreme groundballer with a career 4.39 strikeout rate closing for us. He’s a useful middle reliever, but I’d be hesitant to use him in a high leverage situation.

by OremLK on Nov 20, 2009 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

Ideally no you probably don’t want Sampson closing, but given the situation the Astros are in and the fact that they’re not going to get a premier closer. Sampson and Hawkins career numbers side by side are very similar.

Hawkins WHIP 1.437 HR/9 1.1 SO/BB 2.00 ERA+ 104
Sampson WHIP 1.297 HR/9 0.9 SO/BB 2.03 ERA+ 101

by Timothy De Block on Nov 20, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions

OremLK alludes to a point I forgot to mention....

No matter what happens, if Hawkins and Valverde both walk, the Astros will have to sign free agent relief pitchers. That’s because we simply don’t have enough relief pitchers left, particularly if Wright becomes a starter . The Astros will have lost as many as four relievers from the bullpen,counting Brocail. And I don’t see anybody in the minors who can step in as a reliever right now. Maybe Wilton Lopez, but I prefer to think that he is treated as swing man depth in AAA. A free agent middle reliever is likely to cost $1.5 million or so. Would you rather have a piece of crap like David Weathers for $1.5 or $2 million or is it worth spending a couple million more for a reliever who can actually pitch well in high leverage situations? I go with the latter. The other factor, to me, is that the rotation is going to have a lot of young pitchers (Norris, Paulino or Wright) and an older pitcher (Moehler) who aren’t likely to pitch deep into games. To some extent, the bullpen becomes equal in importance to the rotation.

by clack on Nov 20, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

David Weathers

His name should be banned from TCB.

by Timothy De Block on Nov 20, 2009 12:59 PM CST up reply actions

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