Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 18, 2009 11:02 AM CST
in Hot Stove
33 comments
I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.
Why the fuss? Here are the selections:
The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.
Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).
So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.
But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?
Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:
"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."
Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.
So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.
Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:
"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.
I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.
There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?
And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.
Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?
None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?
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All that really matters is fixing the broken farm system.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
Dumb signings can hurt that though, if poor profits cause Drayton to skimp on signing prospects. Thats always been my biggest problem with the Astros. They are loyal to a fault with their mediocre bench players and spot starters (think Vizcaino, Merced, Moehler, Blum, Erstad, etc) and are willing to pay these guys $1 – $2 million more than they would realistically get in free agency, simply to have roster continuity. Then guys like Drew Stubbs, Chad Jones and Derek Dietrich aren’t signed over a few hundred thousand. That hurts. A Reggie Abercrombie and a prospect is worth more than Darin Erstad.
by seanbergmanrules on Nov 18, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions
Who in the farm system can realistically help the Astros at this point, though? Manzella…maybe. And he apparently will be counted upon at shortstop. Chris Johnson? I doubt it, but the Astros probably still will hope he can start or platoon (that is likely to have a bad ending). Castro? He doesn’t appear to be ready for ML pitching. He may need a full season in AAA. As for outfield bench players, the only ones I see who might have a realistic shot at competing for those slots are Abercrombie and Locke—-and it’s mostly because they are already too old for AAA. From what I get from Astros’ FO comments (like Bennett), the Astros think that Bogusevic shouldn’t sit on the bench, but still needs to play everyday because of his lack of outfield experience. It would be a bad idea to take any of the other outfield prospects and put them on the bench—they need to play everyday. Bourgeois will probably get to compete for a back up slot. I’m not in favor of re-signing Michaels, but realistically he costs less $1 million and isn’t appreciably more expensive than a guy like Abercrombie. I have my doubts that they re-sign Erstad.
What is the plan? Probably to limp along at the big league level until more players are ready to contribute from the farm system.
What is the plan? Probably to limp along at the big league level until more players are ready to contribute from the farm system.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
We could probably be a little more generous and say that the club is building up the farm system while riding out the bulky no-trade-clause contracts they have on the books. My guess is that the goal is to have a better balance of team-controlled youth and free-agent veterans sometime in the middle of the next decade.
after reading the article again....
I suppose I detect the following “plan” if you want to call it that:
Open to bringing back Tejada at 3d base, but if he is too expensive….will consider other 3d base free agents, but if too expensive, may hve to fall back on a Blum/? platoon, which could involve Keppinger, Johnson, or a free agent.
Would like to bring back either Hawkins or Valverde, but depends on what they cost.
Not sure who will be the outfield bench players, because we don’t know if we will bring back Michaels and Erstad.
Not overly excited about our catchers, and we will look at some free agent catchers, but don’t expect anything to come of it.
Won’t add starting pitching unless we can make a trade for a starting pitcher, but don’t depend on that happening.
I’ve kind of re-phrased Wade’s comments to reflect what I think he is really saying.
I’m not sure he might have in mind in terms of a trade for a pitcher. Edwin Jackson is a potential trade target, because the Tigers seem willing to give him up. But what would he require in return? Hard to say. Maybe a lesser name from the Blue Jays could be a trade target, given our pitching coach. Don’t have any ideas at the moment.
Wouldn't it be possible
for a skilled manager to find routine playing time for a guy like Bogusevic or Ramirez? Rotate players around, find extra games and innings off for Lee and Berkman (and, if he’s still around, Tejada), play bench players in their place?
At some point it seems like the organization has to admit that these players aren’t really going to get any better with more “seasoning,” and they just need to start playing them. I think this is the same issue we faced with Erstad/Michaels vs. Reggie this season. The Astros have players who – right now – can contribute at the same level as the bench players they have, but they come at about half the price.
That's where I am at
We don’t need back up outfielders to do much, but play defense. All Abercrombie has favorable splits to milk, and I’m sure that with thought, we could find a way to utilize one of our other OFers similarly.
There just feels like a lack of inventiveness and willingness to play the cards we have, but rather still stack our chips up for show. If we’re not going to spend to get legitimate solutions for our gaps, why spend a lot of money on non-adequate solutions? If we’re going to be bad, why spend anymore to be bad?
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 18, 2009 12:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I have not mastered
The ability to write long, coherent thought with my phone.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Nov 18, 2009 1:06 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wade said he didn’t know if he will bring Erstad and Michaels back or not. So I didn’t see anything he said that indicates he wouldn’t consider Abercrombie, for instance. I disagree that the bench outfielders are primarily for defensive purposes. Probably one back up outfielder should be a good defensive player. Wade has said previously that Bourgeois would be given a shot to compete for a bench position (and I assume that he would be mostly defense/pinch running). If Blum and Keppinger are platooning at 3d base, then the primary power off the bench and pinch hitting has to come from the reserve outfielders. If Tejada is re-signed for 3d base, then that would allow Blum to be the top pinch hitter….and it’s actually a role he can excel in. Who knows if the Astros even intend to keep Abercrombie this year?…he is a free agent. For all I know they may not think he has much future and will let him go. Abercrombie has a lot of warts as a hitter.
In terms of saving money, the difference between Michaels vs. Abercrombie, Ramirez, or Bogusevic is only $350 K. Erstad is more costly at 1.75 M. That is why I have my doubts that they will bring him back. However, Erstad is the “lefty” back up outfielder, and the only lefty in that group is Bogusevic. Personally, I might be willing to replace Erstad with Bogusevic, but, as I said, I think the FO thinks he needs more full time play because of his lack of experience. It’s not like Bogey’s offensive stats in AAA give us a lot of hope. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade finds another cheap reserve LH outfielder to replace Erstad.
As for your question
why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early
I think (if we’re giving the baseball men the benefit of the doubt) the rationale behind that move is that Blum provides a safety net for Wade in his negotiations with Miggy or other free agents. One of the strongest tools in any negotiating arsenal is the ability to walk away from the bargaining table. Any player’s agent who is worth his salt would be able to leverage the Chris-Johnson-as-your-everyday-3B scenario into a better payday for his client. If you have to choose between overpaying and Chris Johnson, that’s not much of a choice.
Further, there’s no guarantee that Blum (or someone with Blum’s skill-set) would be available to the team in January…More likely, you’ll only have guys like Jason Smith (2009 stats: .000/.000/.000).
We have Keppinger
Keppinger has proven that he’s equal to or greater than Blum, even against RHP… he would be fine as the safety net you’re talking about, and he’s a good bench player. As far as I’m concerned Blum still seems redundant.
The whole interview bothers me, as well. He’s basically saying “um, maybe we’ll re-sign the same guys we had last year who got us to 74 wins. Maybe we won’t though. Maybe we’ll work with what we’ve got. Maybe we won’t!”
It all sounds so vague and disinterested. He hasn’t really stated much of anything.
I don't expect him to give us a lot more detail on what he will do.
Lay all your cards out on the table in public? That would be stupid. You are competing with other teams in the off-season and you are competing with players’ agents. Almost every GM worth his salt will hold his cards close to his vest and give vague statements like this. Go look at some of the stuff Theo Epstein is saying publicly. Will he re-sign Bay? His response is like Ed Wade’s response about Tejada. Will he sign free agent pitching? We’ll look at it, but we’re happy to go into the season with what we got. Who will be your shortstop? And Epstein runs through a vague series of options like Wade’s responses about third base. Will you sign any impact free agents? Well, we have to hold our payroll below the revenue sharing threshold. So we don’t have a lot of money to spend.
Yeah, I understand that he can’t come out and say everything he’s thinking, but it doesn’t sound like he has any particular direction in mind. I’m hoping this is just because he’s playing his cards close to his chest, like you’re saying, but it certainly seems to me he’s not doing a very good job of walking the fine line between PR and internal negotiation.
For instance, one thing he could (and should, I think) come out and say is “We’ll be using some combination of Towles, Quintero, and Castro at catcher next season, barring sudden changes in the market or situation.”
I got an undertone in Wade’s remarks that he isn’t enthralled with Quintero and Towles. Yeah, he said that they are fine going with the two catchers, but it wasn’t enthusiastic…the best he could say about Q is that he can be a back up catcher in the major leagues.
Wade seems most interested in : vagueness about what he is doing…and trying to control fans’ expectations that the team will make a big signing.
The catcher issue is a situation that he’s waffling on when the necessary solution is already clear. Either he’s stupid enough to think there’s a more cost-effective solution than Towles/Quintero out there, or he’s jerking us around intentionally to cloud the issue and make it look like the Astros will be able to improve in a way they won’t.
With the terrible catcher market and all the better places to spend the money, why not sate some curiosity and spell out a clear direction in the area where there is one? Just because the non-analytical portion of the fanbase doesn’t like Towles?
Why give up on trying to acquire a catcher if one better than Quintero becomes available. If I’m Wade, I don’t want to eliminate that possibility. My position would be that I will try to improve every position I can, if the opportunity arises. I think it is possible that a better catcher than Q can be found at close to the same cost. Quintero is in the vicinity of a replacement level player.
The plan: Save money in order to save money
I thought Drayton was here to win also but apparently I was wrong. As far as a plan is concerned for 2011 and farward…..no, I see no plan. The plan seems to be save money to save money. I truly thought that when Drayton brought in Clemens and Pettitte (I can’t spell his name) he had figured out that the way to make money in this game was to spend money on players. Obviously I was wrong. Now he thinks but keeping ticket prices the same he will draw fans. You can raise ticket prices…..if you have a product worth buying. I just wish he would sell to someone who was truly committed to winning.
What I don't understand
Is why Drayton is only willing to throw big money at the big names if they’re from Texas?
I mean $20 mil might not of even gotten CC Sabathia but why are they not in the running for more big name players. Is it only limited to future hall of famers from Texas? or players that have been in the organization for a while.
At least
we’re not going after Smoltz
The Crawfish Boxes, Astros blogging at its finest.
by Evan Hochschild on Nov 18, 2009 4:41 PM CST reply actions
Plan
The plan is survival. If you want an improved Astros team send them a few dollars. All forms of revenue are challenged. And the most expensive aspect of a team, pitching, is where ‘Stros need most to improve. Without pitching, 50 point differences in batting averages for a couple of positions is not worth the investment. As for Blum, he’s sought after by teams with the largest payrolls for his versatility and clubhouse manner. MLB team managements are aware of his potential as a coach. He’s considered a great investment by all but fantasy bloggers and wannabes who read stats but harrdly know the game.
Yeah, Blum’s “gritty veteran” status and clubhouse manner helped a lot last season. I’m sure general managers everywhere are just dying to add his sub-.300 wOBA to their team. (Actually, for all I know, they might be; never underestimate the foolishness of some of these guys.)
Sorry if I come across as sarcastic, but it kind of rubs me the wrong way when people start implying others are “wannabes” or nerds because they actual pay attention to analysis, and touting intangibles like clubhouse presence as being more important than facts.
I do think that the Astros place a value on Blum’s significant number of game winning hits (I don’t recall the number, but he led the team in GW hits). Despite how sabermetric types may feel about that kind of stat, I think most teams place value on it. Also, Blum is a plus defender at 3d base, averaging almost 7 runs above average (per 150 game) at 3d base over his career. So I don’t have any question that there would be demand for Blum in the market.
I really think the Blum signing, as a general matter, was good. He is well worth $1.5 million. The only thing which concerned me about the signing is the possibility that he will end up again as the primary starter. As a back up at 3d base and 1st base, and the primary LF pinch hitter off the bench, Blum is a good idea. He fits that role well. If a pinch hitter is needed in crucial game situation, I feel more confident that Blum will give a quality at bat than Erstad or Michaels.
Blum's defense
Thing is, he was only an average defender at 3B this season… and he’s going to be 37 in April. It’s pretty normal for defense to fall off as a player ages, and I suspect that’s what we’re seeing with Blum, considering his injury problems and declining speed.
Anyway, I agree that he’s not a bad signing for the bench taken independently from the overall situation, but he’s a bad everyday third baseman. And I don’t think Wade should have been prioritizing bench players over starters. Especially when he already has Keppinger filling the same role at least as well (and seven years younger).
MGL, who invented UZR, says that you need to look at 2 or 3 years of UZR to get a realistic view of defense, because defense requires a larger sample size. If you average 08 and 09 UZR for Blum, it’s almost exactly his career average UZR at 3d base. I’m willing to accept that because it is consistent with what I saw of his play at 3d base. Yes, he is getting older, but his defense still appears to be plus at 3d base; I think Dave Clark said something at the end of the season to the effect that Blum is still a fantastic defensive 3d baseman. That’s the biggest problem I see with playing Keppinger exclusively at 3d base, base on career UZR at 3d base, he is about 15 runs per 150 games worse than Blum. It’s unfortunate that Blum’s offense isn’t good enough to be a starter anymore.
I agree with OremLK....
that it seems questionable to prioritize signing the bench players before the starters.
3RD Base....
Did I miss something? Didn’t Boone recently receive clearance to play again? Or did he retire? If he does play, that adds another 3RD baseman to the roster! Thats a gluttony at 3RD, with Boone,Blum,Miggy,Johnson, and whoever else the ’Stros throw out there looking for playing time! It would appear they need to trade someone, hopefully for a SP!
And while I like both Valverde and Hawkins, I think we only need to retain one for the closer role. Unless they sign both cheap, and that is unlikely. They also should retain Erstad, as he is a better bat off the bench! Whoever they put on the field in 2010, lets hope they play better than in 2009.
the plan
is hopefully to go against everything they have indicated they will do thus far
as you know i am a fan of taking some risks with the roster, and offering arbitration to hawk and valverde and decide what to do from there
Plan? Be aggressive!
Take the $28M you are saving by not signing Tejada ($13M), Valverde ($8M), Hampton ($2.5M), Brocail ($2.5M), Erstad ($1.5M), Michaels ($750K), and go get Lackey & Figgins! Lackey is a stud, and Figgins will give the Astros OBP, SB, and most importantly – runs scored! Lackey/Wandy/Roy/Norris looks great, and Figgins/Manzella/Matsui/Berkman is a very good defensive infield. LaTroy can close. Say you can get Lackey for $15M/per – (TX native – hometown discount), Figgins for $12M/per, and J.Buck for $1M to groom Towles & Castro, now you’ve got yourself a team worth watching! Will it happen? No, but it should!
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