Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada
by David Coleman on Nov 17, 2009 7:00 AM CST
in Player Profiles
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Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?
If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?
It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.
The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...
The Shortstops
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)
Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.
Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)
Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.
Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's
Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million
Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.
Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles
Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)
Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.
Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants
Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)
Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.
The Third Basemen
Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)
Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles
Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)
Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.
The Utility Players
Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)
Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.
Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million
Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.
The Outlier
Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals
Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)
Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.
Non-Free Agents of Note
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)
Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.
Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)
Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)
Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.
The Breaking News
Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners
Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)
Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.
Forecast for Tejada
Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.
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I was expecting a little more than 10 million to play with. I knew it was going to be less than 15 mil and somewhere around 12.5 mil. The extra 2.5 would be a lot of help considering who our free agents are and the needs we have. With that said, i’m hoping for tejada to give us the discount since he’s publicly said he wants to stay here even if he has to switch positions. But, even with a discounted rate, we’re looking at probably at least 6 a year. Leaving only 4 left. That may not even be enough to bring back Hawkins who we’ve already said could get request and win 5 mil in arbitration. Which leaves with no money for a reclamation pitching project. This is going to be an even more dismal and uneventful offseason that expected.
by Subber10 on Nov 17, 2009 9:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Of course, if the Astros can negotiate long-term deals for Pence and Wandy, they’ll open up some more money this offseason. That’s not really been something the front office has publicly discussed, but I could see something getting done next month, freeing up another 5 million, maybe.
by David Coleman on Nov 17, 2009 9:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This was along the lines of what I was thinking, specifically Pence, I think they view Pence as a franchise player. It’s a matter of if he feels the same way or would prefer to go some where else like Arlington.
by timmy_ on Nov 17, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he may take a deal to buy out his next three years of arbitration and still plan on bolting once he can be a free agent.
by David Coleman on Nov 17, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess he could do that, but from what I’ve seen it’s usually arbitration years, plus a few years, something like a 5 year deal.
by timmy_ on Nov 17, 2009 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Losing Pence in three years wouldn’t be so bad if he maintains his current level of performance. We have a lot of outfield depth in the minors… it’s the infield that’s killing us. Of course, if Pence turns into the superstar I think he can be, he needs to be locked up.
by OremLK on Nov 17, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the salary range you arrive at for Tejada.
Also, do you have any explanation for the different numbers which are used to reflect the Astros 2009 payroll? I see $102 million on most lists as the opening day payroll. However, I also see the Astros use “$107 million” and “108 million” as the number. Most importantly, McLane uses this number. Here is what Drayton tells Richard Justice in the interview after the Acta fiasco:
‘’Last year, we had a $108-million payroll. I’m willing to invest in a successful organization.’’
In the past, McLane has stated that his $107 million payroll in 2009 is the most he has ever paid. We had this same problem last off-season with Wade using payroll numbers which were higher than we were calculating. the only reason I bring it up is that it makes a difference whether you are reducing a $102 million budget or a $107 million budget.
By the way, I think the salary for Jack Wilson is fair. Wilson isn’t just a good defensive shortstop, but arguably the best in the game. Wilson’s runs saved according to +/- was not only the best in baseball, but also close to Adam-Everett-as-his-peak range. Wilson isn’t a good offensive player, but he is a better hitter than Everett.
I have thought about Pedro Feliz, whose defense is outstanding, but whose offense is only so-so. Feliz has some power, but his OBP is putrid. His career OBP is .293. Although he is probably well worth $4 million, I hate adding that kind of OBP to a team with so many bad OBP players. The Phillies rejected his $5 million option by the way.
I will also throw out my most recent idea (again) of Placido Polanco for third base too.
by clack on Nov 17, 2009 9:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I was confused by the differing salary numbers too, but since all the salary information I got was from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, I went ahead and used their number for the opening day payroll.
Wilson’s defense is very deserving of the contract, but his bat is not good at all. Feliz may not get on base at a good clip, but he has more pop and a very good glove. Polanco will be in higher demand than the Astros can afford, but he’d make a nice option in case Matsui goes down again.
by David Coleman on Nov 17, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could the $6 million difference be from the call-ups they had to pay when they were in the majors?
by timmy_ on Nov 17, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that seems way too high, given the difference between major league and minor league contracts isn’t a lot. The only think I can think of as an explanation is that perhaps some residual contracts still owed for players who were not on the opening day payroll. Oscar Villareal comes to mind, but I think that is only $1.1 million. Also, the Cot’s numbers probably doesn’t include performance bonuses earned. Moehler probably earned a performance bonus, but I doubt if it’s much more than $1 million. Perhaps McLane includes draft pick bonuses, but that wouldn’t add more than $2 million or so.
by clack on Nov 17, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Polanco only made something over $4 million/year on his current contract, and he is 34 years old. So, I don’t think $5 million or less is out of the question. He has played quite a bit of 3d base in his career and his defense is good whereever he has played. If Tejada requires too much money, I would view Polanco as a cheaper version of Tejada. There are rumors that the Phillies may go after Polanco for 3d base, and so maybe it is possible that demand will drive Polanco’s price up higher than I think though. Wade has traded for Polanco once before.
by clack on Nov 17, 2009 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If they really only have $10M, it’s going to be a tough year. They have 3 glaring needs: closer, one starting pitcher, and one every day infield bat (whether it be at 2nd, 3rd, or SS). With only ten million, they can maybe fill 2 of those.
The latest chatter from Wade and McLain seems to point to using both Johnson and Manzella, so it looks like the offense is set. It also seems like Wade and McLain are focusing on signing Valverde/Hawkins and have resigned themselves to a rotation of Oswalt, Wandy, Norris, Moehler, and Paulino. Ugh.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 17, 2009 10:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The rotation for 2010 will be better than the 2009 version which had Ortiz, and Hampton.
by timmy_ on Nov 17, 2009 10:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That is a good rotation. There’s a lot of potential there. A lot of talent. And some consistency. SS and 2nd are settled. I wouldn’t mind a reclamation project for a starter and push moehler to the pen. Manzella is the SS and Matsui is the 2nd baseman. Thats not what we would like to have but that is what is going to happen, especially at 2nd. Kaz’s contract is too large for the organization to relegate him to a bench player. The only other option at SS is keppinger and maybe a rule V which is pretty unlikely. 3rd base and closer are the only place where changes will really be made.
by Subber10 on Nov 17, 2009 2:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
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83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
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80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
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78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
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Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
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Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
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