Pitching depth in 2010
One thing you couldn't have accused the Astros of just before the 2009 season was having a great deal of pitching depth. Wandy Rodriguez had improved in 2008, but it was unknown whether he could continue the trend after just one really good year. The bullpen had been (in part) anchored by such luminous names as Doug Brocail and later the previously-mediocre LaTroy Hawkins. Randy Wolf had been let go, and the starting rotation depended on several injury-prone pitchers, most of whom hadn't shown excellence for at least a year, if ever.
After a number of rule 5 draftees, waiver claims, and minor league promotions, the pitching situation already looks much rosier for 2010 than it did coming into last year. The Astros have a surprising number of hard throwers who could slot into either the bullpen or the starting rotation this upcoming season. None of them are very experienced, and most of them struggle with control issues, but for once we're looking at a situation where the Astros could, hypothetically, comprise the majority of their starting rotation and bullpen with young, hard throwers.
With the hiring of Brad Arnsberg to coach this wealth of young talent and help them smooth out the rough edges, it wouldn't be surprising to see the team ERA drop considerably in 2010.
1. Bud Norris (24), RHP. Ranked the #2 prospect in the Astros system by Baseball America prior to 2009, the big question about Norris was whether he could develop an off-speed pitch which would allow him to start rather than simply figuring into the bullpen situation. Not only did he do that, he also dominated the Pacific Coast League and earned a middle-of-the-year callup. Despite a few bad starts, one of them a nasty first-inning blowout, he still finished the year with a respectable ERA and an excellent strikeout rate.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 94 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, power changeup
2. Felipe Paulino (26), RHP. One of the hardest throwers in the Astros organization, Felipe Paulino has been an interesting prospect for awhile, but he hasn't quite been able to put it together. He's been hurt by an unusually high HR/FB rate and occasional command problems, but he's also flashed brilliance with a blistering fastball and a quality breaking ball. His stat line would have looked much better had he not been used in the bullpen in 2009. According to FanGraphs, his starting Runs Above Replacement (RAR) sat at 5.1 for the season, while his relieving RAR was just the opposite value (or lack thereof) at -5.2. Oh, and Nolan Ryan apparently thinks he's great.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 95.4 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, curveball, changeup
3. Jeff Fulchino (29), RHP. A waiver claim at the end of 2008, Jeff Fulchino burst into the bullpen and gradually climbed the ranks until he was the team's go-to guy in middle relief. He was old for a rookie, but productive. His strikeout rate was solid and his control good. With a good, hard fastball, a respectable slider, and split finger pitch which flashed brilliance, a lot of us feel that he's another good candidate for the starting rotation; barring that, he might be a good candidate for the back end of the bullpen, perhaps taking Hawkins' place as the main setup guy. Although he only pitched in relief, I was a big fan of his work, and to my eye, he looked like the most polished of the pitchers on this list. Nonetheless, he is 29, so age is an extra hurdle for him to climb in convincing the Astros that he can be a key part of their pitching staff going forward.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 93.1 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, split finger
4. Alberto Arias (26), RPH. Another great waiver wire pickup, Arias proved very effective in middle relief in the first half of 2009. He also has starting experience in the minors, though it was awhile back. He was bit by the injury bug in the second half of the year, probably due to overuse by Cecil Cooper (what else is new?), but when healthy, he relied on an excellent hard fastball with lots of movement, keeping hitters honest with a so-so curveball and the rare slider. His strikeout rate was solid, and his walk rate was just a little below average. Like Fulchino, he's a back-of-the-bullpen candidate.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 93.0 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, curveball
5. Wesley Wright (24), LHP. Selected in the Rule 5 Draft in 2007, Wesley Wright became a moderately effective innings-eater in 2009, mostly used in cleanup situations. Like Paulino, he was hurt by a high HR/FB rate, as well as an unusually high BABIP. But his biggest issue was control, as he walked over five batters per nine innings. How much of this is due to inexperience and coaching? It's hard to say, but one thing is for sure--Wright knows how to strike a batter out, with over a strikeout per inning in relief this season, and a good left-handed fastball. He'll be working on developing his off-speed pitch(es) during the off-season in the hopes of competing for a rotation spot in 2010.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 91.3 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, curveball, changeup.
6. Yorman Bazardo (25), RHP. A nice minor-league pickup, Bazardo was very effective at AAA in 2009, but struggled at the big league level. Unlike the previous pitchers on this list, who all rely on good fastballs, Bazardo's best pitch is his changeup. That said, his fastball does clock in at a respectable speed with some movement. What really killed him at the big league level was that his walk rate soared to over six per nine innings, albeit in a very small sample size. At Round Rock, he didn't strike out many, but he also kept the walks under control, only walking a couple of batters per nine. He's back of the rotation material at best, and more likely will wind up in a cleanup role in the bullpen, but don't rule him out entirely.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 91.7 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, changeup
7. Wilton Lopez (26), RHP. Lopez was an end-of-the-year callup not from AAA, but from AA. He was very old for his level, but he only began his professional career in 2007, so some leeway may be in order. With the Astros, his short time on the mound was crushed by an incredibly high BABIP and HR/FB rate, but he flashed signs of a hard fastball with good movement, and the organization seems to think highly of his chances. As another ball-in-play type of pitcher like Bazardo, he doesn't figure to be more than a back of rotation starter at best, or more likely a middle relief cleanup guy. But he could be a useful piece of depth for the big league team, and like Bazardo, it's doubtful that he's anywhere near as bad as his big league numbers suggest.
Avg. Fastball velocity: 91.6 MPH
Pitches: Fastball, slider, changeup
Honorable Mentions: Sammy Gervacio, Chia-Jen Lo. Gervacio figures to be a middle reliever for the Astros in 2010, and Lo might be as well, but neither of them are likely to see any starts at the big league level.
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Comments
Nice review. I would add on the Arias description that his best feature is the combination of velocity and groundball rate (61.3%), which means he is a power sinker pitcher. Arias was also used in a lot of high leverage situations and seemed to thrive in that capacity.
by clack on Nov 13, 2009 9:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
For as much flak as Ed Wade gets for signing Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz, he certainly doesn’t get enough credit for snagging Arias. Or Fulchino, for that matter.
by AstroAndy on Nov 13, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Arias’ fastball is just a ridiculously good pitch, combining good velocity with outstanding movement. The only real issue is that the movement seems to make it more difficult for him to command. But clearly it’s not a dealbreaker given his 3.32 FIP.
by OremLK on Nov 13, 2009 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post OremLK. It’s great to see that so many guys under the age of 30 will be contributing to the pitching staff next year.
My unfounded guess is that Wes Wright will have a great performance in the Dominican Winter League (he’s got a 1.29 ERA and 30 K over 21 innings and 4 games so far) and a good enough spring training for the club to want to keep him as a starter. Paulino is probably a little more likely to nail down a spot in the rotation, however, so the club could have Wright start the season at AAA to continue getting him used to going 6 innings. I would prefer trying to keep Wright as a starter, and either pick up a LOOGY through the free agent market or the Rule 5 draft.
by AstroAndy on Nov 13, 2009 9:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yorman Bazardo
I see him as a dark horse type for next year. I don’t expect for him to break spring training on the major league roster mostly because i see the roster being filled by guys who have earned it or will be brought in to fill specific roles. I see him starting out in RR battling for the 1st spot in the rotation against polin trinidad. He’s been succesful in the minors and has had a few bright spots in the majors on occasion. I think it has a lot to do with confidence, as i think is the case with most AAAA players, since he was originally brought up to the majors very young with the marlins. So i think arnsberg might be able to work with that and make him a good pitcher. He’ll probably be the first guy brought up in case of injury. But your right his max potential is back of the rotation or middle relief work. But could be a consistent pitcher eventually.
by Subber10 on Nov 14, 2009 1:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Who Did You Leave Off?
Great Post, OremLK. You left some guys off. Where do you see Byrdak, Sampson, and Geary fitting in, if at all? It appears that you have already deleted Valverde (can’t say that I blame you). I think there are about 18 pitchers roster ready for next year. This is so much better than last year, even though so many have little, if any, experience at the ML level. I had some very pleasant suprises in the pitchers including Arias (my personal favorite) and Bud Norris. I still am very hopeful that Paulino establishes himself.
by Oldstro on Nov 16, 2009 10:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I intentionally left off guys above thirty years old because I wanted to talk about younger pitchers who could contribute down the road in addition to next year. Byrdak should be an important contributor next season, and Sampson might be as well. We’ll see soon what will happen with Hawkins and Valverde.
by OremLK on Nov 17, 2009 5:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wilton Lopez
per the Astros mlb.com site threw 4 hit-less innings in the AFL in his final outing of the league.
by timmy_ on Nov 17, 2009 6:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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