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Roster Breakdown: The Money


I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Star-divide

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

 

WAR Salary Difference
Bourn 18.700 0.435 18.265
Pence 15.200 0.439 14.761
W. Rodriguez 14.400 2.600 11.800
Fulchino 3.600 0.400 3.200
Hampton 4.600 2.000 2.600
Sampson 2.700 0.449 2.251
Arias 2.500 0.402 2.099
Quintero 2.300 0.610 1.690
Rodriguez 3.100 1.500 1.600
Gervacio 1.900 0.400 1.500
Blum 2.600 1.200 1.400
Keppinger 1.700 0.428 1.273
Maysonet 1.400 0.400 1.000
Norris 0.400 0.400 0.000
Sadler 0.000 0.402 -0.402
Towles 0.000 0.402 -0.402
Manzella -0.200 0.400 -0.600
Kata -0.300 0.400 -0.700
Berkman 13.600 14.500 -0.900
Tejada 11.800 13.000 -1.200
Paronto -1.100 0.500 -1.600
Bazardo -1.200 0.405 -1.605
Ortiz -1.100 0.750 -1.850
Michaels -1.200 0.750 -1.950
Boone -1.200 0.750 -1.950
Lopez -1.600 0.400 -2.000
Hawkins 1.500 3.500 -2.000
Johnson -2.000 0.375 -2.375
Moehler -0.200 2.300 -2.500
Wright -2.100 0.425 -2.525
Matsui 2.400 5.000 -2.600
Coste -2.500 0.460 -2.960
Backe -1.500 1.500 -3.000
Paulino -2.600 0.405 -3.005
Smith -2.800 0.500 -3.300
Oswalt 10.300 14.000 -3.700
Geary -2.000 1.700 -3.700
Byrdak -3.200 1.000 -4.200
Brocail -2.200 2.500 -4.700
Valverde 3.000 8.000 -5.000
Erstad -4.100 1.750 -5.850
Lee 10.600 18.500 -7.900

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IMO, Fangraphs' valuations of relief pitchers is screwed up.

I’ll start off with a general skepticism of relying solely on FIP for valuing pitching performance. But, more significantly, the Fangraphs’ valuations of relief pitchers fails to adequately account for leverage. I came to that conclusion after comparing historical valuations of closers who had high water years by Win Shares vs. WAR. WAR consistently undervalued the closers, usually by a large margin, compared to Win Shares. My guess is that WAR either fails to consider, or does not adequately consider, the impact of high leverage.

by clack on Oct 9, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Only sort of related, but...

If the payroll situation is going to force us to lose Miguel Tejada, should we consider trading for J.J. Hardy? The Brewers are obviously looking to get rid of him, and his 1.4 WAR this year suggests they’ll be selling low.

What would it take to get him? And does he still have enough rebound potential to be worthwhile?

by OremLK on Oct 10, 2009 3:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I have thought about a J.J. Hardy trade. I don’t know that he will repeat the 20+ HR seasons, but I would bet he will have some good seasons combining above average offense with good defense. If he could be obtained cheaply, I would favor it. But I think the Brewers will want more than the “sell low” trade return. You hear talk that the Brewers want a starting pitcher in return for Hardy. I’m not sure that any team will give them that, though.

by clack on Oct 10, 2009 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kind of what I figured.

Unfortunately we’re in need of reliable pitching too. However, now that I think about it, our pitching depth isn’t exactly bad. We’d probably have to include at least one “real” prospect in the package though. I wonder if they’d consider Chia Jen-Lo?

Another intriguing possibility would be trading them Oswalt for Hardy plus somebody else (you mentioned Heether in the other thread, for instance). I don’t remember whether the Brewers are on his list though. They probably aren’t, even though they might be a little bit closer to contention than we are. Correct me if I’m wrong.

by OremLK on Oct 10, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I don’t think the Brewers are a team Oswalt would OK…if he would OK any trade.

And I would want a lot more than Hardy and Heether in exchange for Oswalt. The Brewers would probably have to give up Gamel for any player of Roy’s stature…and I would want a high grade near-ML ready pitching prospect, which isn’t the Brewers’ strong suit.

by clack on Oct 10, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trouble is, and I don’t want to get into too much of a tangent, that Oswalt’s salary is so high. A big portion of any off-season deal involving him would going to be salary relief. I can’t see getting a big haul unless it’s he rebounds significantly in the first half of next season and we move him at the deadline.

by OremLK on Oct 10, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Oswalt is still cheap, his last season notwithstanding. I suspect that teams which are interested in trading for him will have some concern about his back, and that could be a stumbling block to any trade attempts. But if other teams became comfortable that his back injury is manageable, I think he would command the bounty you would get for a premier ace pitcher, and his salary would be viewed as a bargain. Since I view him that way, I wouldn’t trade him for salary relief but only if you can reload with ML-ready pitching prospects.

by clack on Oct 10, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even in 2008, though, he was only worth a little more than what he was paid (WAR valued him at $16.1 million). If he deals with the back problem, he’s definitely still an ace (or at least a #2), no question about it. But the back problem is a major issue at this point, exacerbated by the fact that he’s talked publicly about planning to retire after his contract is over, which makes it sound like he’s “old for his age” (even if he isn’t in reality).

If not for the back thing I’d agree with you, because this season is so thin on free agent starting pitchers. There’s only one Lackey to go around. But if Oswalt is viewed as injury prone now because of his back, what’s going to set him apart from all the other ace-quality guys with bad health histories?

by OremLK on Oct 10, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

WAR uses FIP to value pitchers, and FIP has always been a weak metric for indicating Oswalt’s performance. But that aside, Oswalt and Wandy would have had similar FIPs, in the mid-3’s, if Cecil Cooper hadn’t pushed Oswalt to pitch through his back injuries in his last three or so starts.

That said, though, I think the back injury is an issue which clouds Oswalt’s future value. I tend to be optimistic about it, but none of us really know for sure. In any event, the discussion is probably moot, because Oswalt isn’t likely to be traded. McLane made clear during this season that McLane approved the no trade clause because he doesn’t want to trade Oswalt at any time during his career.

by clack on Oct 10, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably true. The only way it would realistically happen would be if Oswalt himself asked for the trade. Which isn’t totally outside of the realm of possibility, based on his comments, but may not be very likely.

by OremLK on Oct 10, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

to clarify, by the way, when I mentioned FIP as a weak metric for Oswalt, I’m referring to the fact that Oswalt historically has outperformed his FIP over his career. You can see that by comparing FIPs and ERAs each year, and comparing his career FIP and ERA.

by clack on Oct 10, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I figured

That’s one reason I’m a little suspicious of WAR. That said, you have to remember that most seasons, Oswalt has had good defense behind him. Maybe some ballooning of his ERA should have been expected regardless due to our defensively crappy infield.

by OremLK on Oct 11, 2009 3:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

15mil, 16mil and a club option with a 2mil buyout

and the Brewers throw in Hardy, Heether, Gamel and a premium pitching prospect? Just the salary is probably too risky.

by ol Pete on Oct 10, 2009 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

RJ Anderson recommending a trade opportunity for the Rays...

He writes this at DRaysBay , suggesting that J.R. Towles is a “buy low” candidate who can be gotten cheaply from the Astros. In a somewhat irritating aside, he says that maybe the Astros would throw in Felipe Paulino too. You can see “take Ed Wade to the cleaners” type snark in the comments too.

by clack on Oct 12, 2009 10:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
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