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One lesson Astros owner Drayton McLane MUST learn this offseason

For the last few days I've been mulling over what would be my in my annual condemnation of something that Drayton McLane does or doesn't do that bugs me as a fan.  Last year, I'll admit, I was  little on the absurd side. This year my goal will be to focus on the practical instead of the fantastical.

Since Cecil Cooper's firing, and even before that, Drayton McLane stated publicly that he didn't understand why the Astros weren't destroying opponents, because, after all, they had one of the leagues highest payrolls.  I'm not sure how much of it was rhetoric, or if any of it was even self-delusion, but those kind of statements frighten me to no end. So this offseason, instead of hoping for Drayton McLane to graciously open up some of his near $1.2 billion in net worth on the free agent market, I'll aim a lot lower.

Star-divide

Drayton McLane seems to be missing a very crucial piece of the puzzle: How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product.  What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in.  It's probably not that far off from the performance of mutual fund.  (For a refresher on just how the Astros performed, relative to their salaries, head over to the freely available breakdown at BtB).

It's no secret, the Astros are not a well constructed team.  I just linked above to a number of pretty charts that speak this fact, and just about everyone here, at one time or another, has probably cited and elaborated upon several other means of illustrating this point.

However, the actual problem that this organization has been plagued with for the last few years seems to be one that will continue to plague it going forward: Drayton McLane's willingness to bury his head in the sand.  When Cooper was fired, Drayton made it clear that it would be just the first of many overhauls to this organization.  Yet, it seems like Cooper's firing will be just what Tim Purpura and Phil Garner's firings were in 2007: smoke and mirrors to entice fans into believing that in overhauling the management, and not the team on the field, that things will get better—over night. There seems to be no substance to these moves.  They just seem like the impulsive move to cast blame on something other than the problem itself: that the Astros are inefficient and that much is needed to be done to make the efficient.  This team doesn't didn't need to have its manager fired, what this team needed was a fresh, intelligent, and above all, realistic approach.

So my hope for this offseason, is that Drayton will have will have a "the buck stops here" moment this offseason (soon would be nice).  Without that kind of epiphany, there will be no progress with this ball club in the short term (two-three years).  Bobby Heck's draftees can't progress overnight, and we can only expect so much out of Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, and Jason Castro in 2010.  What we can, and should expect, from our owner, who is a business savvy man, is for him to understand that there isn't an easy fix with this team; that he can't keep measuring his expectations against the ledger; and that the fate of his franchise is in no one else's hands but his.  Because until Drayton learns that it's not about spending more or spending less, he won't focus on spending smartly.

Now, is this so unreasonable of me to wish for?

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I'll re-post something I recently put in the comments...

on my article comparing and contrasting the Red Sox and Astros’ approaches to constructing teams:

Deadspin had a two part article here about one of the pioneers of baseball analytics, Eric Walker, who preceded Bill James by a few years and helped teach Billy Beane some basic principles of baseball analysis. He points out that, even with the pervasive influence of sabermetrics today, many modern baseball teams continue to ignore quantitative analysis, as evidenced by the teams with abysmal OBP. This is the quote:

I cannot think of another industry in which the uttermost basics of how the product works are a mystery to the people in that industry. There is nothing, to any with IQs much over their hat size, mysterious or controversial about analysis: it’s just the way things work, and that’s that. Yet a coach on the major-league level (coaching on a team last in all the majors in OPS) can to this hour be found publicly remarking, "You want to see a walk? Go watch a mailman." How is that possible? How can businesses with annual payrolls approaching a tenth of a billion dollars not have any least idea how their business works?

Back to DQ’s post…I think Drayton McLane looks at his players, guys like Lee, Berkman, Pence, Tejada, Oswalt, Wandy, and says “I know these are really good players, and so I expect to be able to win.” And he is right to the extent that these are good players. But he doesn’t realize that the team is not well constructed; that it makes too many outs and doesn’t preent enough outs, the subject of Theo Epstein’s comment in my previous article’s quote. McLane probably thinks you can take that “core” and surround it with cheaper guys with “chemistry” and it will all work. I don’t know that Wade would attempt to dissaude him from that view….because Wade, himself, says things like that.

by clack on Oct 8, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

McLane probably thinks you can take that "core" and surround it with cheaper guys with "chemistry" and it will all work.

You know, this is something that’s the case in a lot of sports, not just baseball. I think a lot of people were/are down on the Rockets this year more than is warranted, partly because the vast majority of teams in the NBA are constructed like the Astros – there are a few stars and good players, and then the rest of the roster is filled out with crap. And I don’t mean that they’re crap because they’re not recognizable players or because they don’t score twenty a night; I mean that they’re just bad players: guys who can’t contribute to a winning basketball team. The difference for the Rockets (and teams like the Spurs or Pistons of a few years ago) is that everyone on the roster is a positive contributor to the team. They all have skills that make them valuable. Maybe they can only rebound and defend, or maybe they can only shoot threes, but these are skills that make them worth more than the typical back-of-the-bench player in the NBA.

If you look at the Astros, you see a team that has excellent contributors in several starting positions. Pence, Bourn, and Berkman are great players. Same goes for the rotation. But when you get past that core of quality players, you quickly find that the Astros are fielding a team of regulars who probably should be on the bench and bench players who should be retired or playing in Japan or something. And that’s the problem the Astros are going to have so long as Wade or Drayton or whoever is in charge doesn’t figure out a way to get quality players onto the team.

That seems like something that’s obvious, right? “If you want a winning baseball team, fill it with players who are good at playing baseball.” But it’s something that way too few owners and GMs seem to understand.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 8, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with everything said

At the end of the day, what baffles me is how someone with enough business acumen to amass $1.2 billion in net worth can’t look at teams like the Rays, the Red Sox, etc. and figure out that there a better ways of running a baseball franchise. Drayton obviously has the ability to survey the business landscape and find opportunities for innovation and increasing his competitive advantage—why isn’t he doing that with the Astros?

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 8, 2009 2:14 PM CDT via mobile reply actions   0 recs

REBUILDING ASTROS

astros need to rebuild…. keep rodriquez, oswalt, norris…..valverde and 3 or 4 current relievers… build around michael bourne….everyone else is trade bait…. get a young manager…trade for minor leaguers and one quality sp…or get someone real good free agent sp…. then have the young pos players..compete for jobs…the ones we have and the ones we trade for…yeah that is right…trade berkman…c.lee…matsui (who would want him?)… keep keppinger as bench player.. oswalt physical condition is a big question and concern…trade moehler…why does anyone thing he is worth 3mil?..his era is over 5…he has a losing record… offer tejada about 2mil to play 3d base…take it or leave it…if he takes it then sign him and trade him….START OVER…should have done this 1,2 and 3 yrs ago…

by Mike HJALM on Oct 13, 2009 11:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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