Astros Exercise Brian Moehler's Option
by OremLK on Oct 6, 2009 11:20 PM CDT
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PrintMoehler to return to Astros in '10.
The Astros have agreed to pay $3 million for a 37-year old 5.47 ERA pitcher next season. Even if you like Moehler, and I like him well enough, that's way too much to pay for him. Money, meet drain.
Now that they're spending so much on Moehler, what are the chances that the Astros will go out and get a good starting pitcher on the free agent market?
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Meh
Thats all I have to say about that. Im indifferent on Moehler. When he is good, he is good. When he is bad, boy is he bad.
This is one of the cases when WAR breaks down, I think.
I just can’t imagine anybody paying more than $1.5, maybe $2 million for him on the open market… because of his ERA and age mostly.
Regardless...
The mandate this winter was to get younger and cheaper. A multi-million dollar deal on a non-impact signing, of an aging #5 starter, pretty much flies in the face of that. It makes all of Wade’s and Drayton’s words about change sound like lying through their teeth.
Most 2010 discussions the past month include Moehler
usually as a starter; or a solid long reliever.
Moehler is an interesting study. He has not had the wear and tear expected for a pitcher his age since for two or three years he pitched relatively few innings. He may have arm of a “youthful” 33 or 34 year old.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 7, 2009 1:38 AM CDT reply actions
I’m not sure how much freedom the Astros had to decline the option. Cot’s baseball contracts description of Moehler’s contract says: “triggering events may allow either club or player to decline 2010 option” That led me to believe that the team could decline to exercise the option only if certain conditions (perhaps DL time or not meeting an innings pitched threshold) occurred. I don’t know if the Astros’ hand was forced by the contract or not. Also, setting that aside, there is a buy out that the Astros would have to pay if Moehler exercised his option and the Astros’ refused it. That would mean that the net cost of the decision is probably more like $2.5 million.
If the Astros had a real choice, I don’t like picking up his option….but the nature of the contractual choice is somewhat hazy.
wouldn’t surprise me that the front office hamstringed it self with a contract.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 7, 2009 7:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's the way the contract worked ( I think)
We start with this blurb:
“The Astros had until the fifth day after the World Series to exercise the option or pay Moehler a $250,000 buyout. If he declines, then he doesn’t get the buyout.”
I interpret that to mean the contract provided for the $3 million contract if both sides wanted it . IF Astros walked , they owed Moehler $250,000. If Moehler wakled, He got nothing. The contract forecd the Astros to decide by a certain date (five days after the World Series) so Moehler could wait them out.
Because the Astros acted so quickly (as did Moehler) I think the decision was made early that Moehler fit into tthe Astros 2010 plans and not that the contract hemmed them in.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 7, 2009 10:08 AM CDT reply actions
Moehler’s actual ERA this season was 5.47. But ERA isn’t always the best indicator of a pitcher’s performance, particularly if the defense behind him isn’t very good.
When you look at Moehler’s Fielding Independent Pitching stats, a stat that looks at just the things a pitcher can control (and not at things like whether Miggy can get to that ball shooting up the middle), Moehler looks a lot better.
Using fangraphs’s FIP measure, Moehler was a 4.75 ERA pitcher. Using the Hardball Times’ xFIP measure, Moehler was more like a 4.56 ERA pitcher. His true talent level probably lies somewhere in between those two numbers. While the 0.700 difference between his ERA and his FIP might not seem to be a big deal, in this case, it’s the difference between a pitcher you release, like Backe or Hampton, and league average (usually around a 4.50 ERA).
Did the Astros overpay Moehler? Probably a little bit. But he has some qualities that give him value over a guy they’d be picking up off the free agent market.
Perhaps the most important “added value” about Moehler is that he’s put up ERA, xFIP, and FIP numbers in that 4.50-4.75 ERA consistently over his 3 years with the Astros. Having a relatively known quantity at the back end of the rotation is valuable in itself because it means you can put more risk elsewhere…and the young guns (Norris, Paulino) are still risky.
And if anyone at Round Rock starts making a good case to be brought up, Moehler has shown that he’s effective as a swing man/long reliever, and can be moved to that role without going all Shawn Chacon on the general manager or getting prissy about it like Russ Ortiz.
Finally, he’s already got established relationships with some of the younger guys they’re trying to mix in…I’m not normally a champion of veteraniness, but this is a case where it seems to add a little value. Did anyone else catch the blurb at the end of the season where Moehler said for the final series, he was going to take Felipe Paulino out to the bullpen and make sure they’d be ready in case Clark needed either of them?
My conclusion is this: maybe the Astros overpaid Moehler, but if they did, it wasn’t by much, it wasn’t totally senseless, and it wasn’t in a way that’s going to cripple Ed Wade’s ability to work in the offseason.
by AstroAndy on Oct 7, 2009 10:43 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
yeah,
personally, I can’t stand seeing Moehler pitch. I hate that he’s on the team. But this is a perfectly fine signing. The Astros have to find pitching somewhere, and Moehler is basically a guaranteed 100+ innings of slightly-above-replacement-level pitching.
Now, you might say that there are other pitchers out there that can do that for cheaper, regardless of what his WARP dollar value is, but I’d say that those pitchers:
- Aren’t in the Astros’ farm system right now.
- Will only get onto the Astros with a trade, and Wade better not be trading young players for guys with Moehler-like production.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
I agree with your second paragraph in its entirety.
I don’t hate seeing Moehler pitch, but I have to admit, I never tuned in to any game thinking “Moehler’s pitching tonight, this could be a good game”. I don’t hate that he’s on the team so long as he’s the baseline…I don’t want him being our #3 starter.
Personally, I don’t like Moehler at $3 million. He is a mediocre pitcher who is at an age where he could crash into pitching oblivion at any time. On the other hand, it doesn’t bother me that much—he isn’t my preference, but it’s not a horrible decision or one which wrecks the Astros’ budget. And I do agree with some of the points that Andy made—in essence, we know what we’re getting with Moehler, and his steady medocrity allows more risk in the other rotation slots.
However, one bad angle to the price tag is that the Astros seem very reluctant to move a pitcher from the rotation to the bullpen when a guy has that kind of contract. There was a time early in the last season when Moehler was performing worse than other rotation candidates and should have been considered for bullpen duty; and I got the feeling that his salary stood in the way (or else, Cooper stood in the way…hard to tell). In any event, I would hope that signing Moehler doesn’t prevent Paulino from getting an opportunity to work consistently out of the rotation without wondering if a bad outing will get him sent back to the pen. If the Astros do sign another starting pitcher, that trade off between Moehler and Paulino could arise.
I agree with Andy about the character that Moehler brings to the team. You can tell that he is respected by both his teammates and players on other teams as a grinder. And you can tell what kind of competitor he is after games he has lost and has to repress his anger at making a mistake which lost the game.
How about Paulino, Fulchino, Wright, and Bazardo?
Young MLB minimum guys with better stuff and upside. Even if they were worse than Moehler, at least they would get the chance to develop as starters at the big league level… With Moehler here they’re probably just going to sit in the bullpen.
Maybe, maybe not
Even if the Astros field a Roy, Wandy, Norris, Paulino, Wright/Bazardo rotation, they’ll need more pitchers in the bullpen, and will certainly need someone for spot starts when one of the rotation pitchers goes down.
This isn’t an either/or situation.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
The idea is that they sign a FA starter
A rotation like you described would be terrifying. Norris isn’t even close to being a proven #3 starter yet (although maybe he will be in the future). So ideally the rotation should be Roy, Wandy, #3 FA, Bud, #5. The problem with signing Moehler is that knowing the Astros, since they spent $3 million on him, will slot him into the #5 spot hell or high water… leaving no starting time for the other guys barring injury.
Then
the need for an experienced pitcher to provide innings in the case of injury is even more crucial.
As for whether they’ll automatically start him because of his contract… I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. Coop was very fond of Moehler (in contrast with his attitude towards Ortiz), and so likely insisted that he stay in the rotation.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
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