Garrett Atkins

by Astrofan on Oct 30, 2009 2:26 PM CDT Comment 17 comments

Garrett Atkins, the Rockies 29 year old 3rd baseman had a down season in 2009 and lost a lot of playing time to Ian Stewart who figures to be the starter for the Rox in 2010. Theres been rumors the team may try to trade him but I've also heard he may be non tendered or released. In 2009, Atknins hit .226 with 9 homers 48 RBI in 354 at bats. He posted an obp of .308 and and ops of just .650. His carreer averages are .289 21 homers 100 RBI .354 OBP and .811 OPS. If he does end up as a free agent, I'm intrigued by the idea of the Stros picking him up for around $5MM. I'm basing this on a presumption that 2009 was down year and he'll bounce back in 2010. Although, he could turn into a Morgan Ensberg case. What say the masses?

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5 Million is a lot for a guy whose had a downward trend statistically since 2006.

by timmy_ on Oct 30, 2009 3:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Under 5M?

if so, I say go for some kind of two year deal.

Fun being a fan!

by hunterpencefan on Oct 30, 2009 3:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m an astros fan with Rockies season tickets and all year I was wishing he was in the Astros starting lineup instead of wasting away in the Rockies dugout. He didn’t respond well to coming off the bench, but I think an every day job at third base could result in some great power numbers and a return to prior form, especially playing at Minute Maid.

by BrianD on Oct 30, 2009 4:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

How about Troy Glaus?

He has some injury problems, but his last full season (in 2008) he batted .270/.372/.483 with a solid 4.5 UZR at third base.

His injury issues and resulting lack of playing time in 2009 will make him cheaper. They will also make him a risky signing, but with potentially high rewards.

by OremLK on Oct 30, 2009 6:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Due to injury, Glaus may be unable to play third base anymore. The Cardinals wanted to use Glaus at the end of the season and the playoffs, because he was hitting well in the minors, but they were concerned that he can’t play any position other than 1st base or DH, and 1st base was taken. I heard some Cards fans question whether he can throw well enough to even play 1st base. I think he is close to being like Bagwell, in terms of should problems, at the end of his career.

by clack on Oct 30, 2009 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that’s basically what I’ve heard too, with the question being whether it’s a continuing condition or something that he can deal with.

If it’s Bagwell-type bad my guess is he will try to go DH…

by OremLK on Oct 30, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Will Atkins really only cost 5 Million?

If he does then great, sign him, play him everyday. He’d be a great addition to a lineup that already includes Berkman, Lee, Pence and Bourn. Defense wouldn’t be great, but Houston already has one of the worst in baseball, and he’d have Tommy Manzella playing to his left.

by byronlhsdrmr on Nov 1, 2009 12:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Atkins Contract

I would give him the type of three year deal we gave Kaz Matsui a few years ago – 3 yr 16.5 mil or so

by byronlhsdrmr on Nov 1, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

id give atkins a 3 year deal

just like kaz…atkins alot better last year then kaz was ever!

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Nov 1, 2009 4:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I have mixed feelings about Atkins. The statistical indicators are that he is a significant risk. I definitely wouldn’t trade anyone significant for him. And I’m not sure he is worth $5 million. If I could get Tejada for $7 million, I would take him over Atkins at $5 million. If you have a Bill James web site subscription, look up the article “Garrett Atkins” to see why I think he is a risk. That article was written last off-season, and pointed out that Atkins had a three consecutive year decline in K/BB ratio. K/BB ratios are generally stable stats for individual players, and James pointed out that Atkins’ decline was relatively rare, with only a handful of comparable players. In most of the comparable situations, the players suffered rapid collapses in their abilities. A few rebounded and returned to respectability (Chili Davis is the one I remember). Although Atkins’ hitting continued to decline last year, he actually had an uptick in his K/BB rate, which could be a good sign….except the sample size of PAs was pretty light last year. There is a chance of significant offensive decline next year for Atkins, even though it’s also possible he rebounds like Chili Davis.

by clack on Nov 1, 2009 4:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

that should read "BB/K" ratios...

by clack on Nov 1, 2009 5:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He’s been declining for years in almost every category.

2006: .410 wOBA
2007: .368 wOBA
2008: .337 wOBA
2009: .291 wOBA

The biggest factor, it seems to me, has not actually been his K/BB ratio, but his ISO. It has been declining consistently year to year, and with it, his BABIP has been going down—and so have his on-base percentage, batting average, and slugging percentage as a result.

The only big plus is that he’s only 29, so he may still have the potential to straighten things out. And the fact that he’s had a .965 OPS season means his potential is very high indeed. But I don’t think I’d give him a straight-out three year deal. Two plus incentive-based option, if the price is right, would be okay.

by OremLK on Nov 1, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, all his stats have been declining. But BB/K is normally stable for a starting player who has a significant number of at bats. The reason that James focused on his BB/K is that the extent of his decline over a period of time for BB/K was very rare, with only a few batters out of several thousand experiencing that severe a decline. Most of the batters who did were out of baseball within one or two years. James said he couldn’t conclude that Atkins would collapse, but he also didn’t think it is a good thing.

by clack on Nov 1, 2009 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Is he a realistic option?

Bum i sback.

Good chance Tejada will return and play third base (unless Manzella fails at shortstop)

Umsure of Keppinger ‘s and Boone’s status

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Nov 1, 2009 9:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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