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5 semi-absurd thoughts of an Astros fan down in the dumps

I don't know what it is about the 2009 Astros, but, unlike their 2008 version, they have me deeper in the dumps than I was at any point in 2008 or 2007.  It's hard for me to believe that in the four seasons since the Astros made their brief and heartbreaking appearance in the World Series that they've only mustered a paltry .488 winning percentage (315-330).  Maybe it would be my own naivete at the time, but I don't think I would have believed it if someone told me that the Astros would miss the post-season four years in a row, while posting a losing record overall.  Perhaps it should have been readily apparent to me, but at this point, it's hard to discern whats my own revisionist history and what's my own awareness that I know now a lot more than I knew then.

What does any of that have to do with "5 semi-absurd thoughts of an Astros fan down in the dumps"? I'm not exactly sure, but it felt good getting if off my chest.  So perhaps I'll just claim that it was setting the stage.  With that, I'll get to it. As a preface, these aren't to be taken as serious recommendations, just the bitter musings I had as I watched us get slaughtered by the Mets last night.

  1. I truly wish someone could go back in time and write into the CBA that players who underperformed their contracts based on WAR estimates, would have to pay the team back their money.  Think of what an insane incentive that would be for Carlos Lee to lose some [expletive deleted] weight.  Further, think about what that would do for the free agent market in general? It would remove the moral hazard that's present, which allows someone like Carlos Lee to take the cash and then not push themselves.  It would force the player to truly consider their own worth before locking into some stupid contract that hamstrings a franchise for years and years. There would be qualifiers for injuries, etc., so that players weren't unfairly dinged for a few million here and there.  To be extra fair, we could say that over a certain amount it had to be paid back...say four million? Or maybe a percentage...say 20%. I think it would be a lot of fun. Just think how much extra the Astros would have to spend this offseason, and how much cheaper the players would be?
  2. How cool would it be if once the games became meaningless in a season for a team, the fans were able to go online and vote for who would be in the lineup; there would, of course, be the options to text your vote as well.  I understand that there is value in keeping games competitive for teams in contention or vying for home field advantage, but screw it.  There is no reason that we don't have a better idea of what Chris Johnson and Tommy Manzella bring to the table other than the pursuit of Miguel Tejada's 200 hits and adhering to the time honored tradition of not using a valuable opportunity for the sake competitive advantage (BTW it's not like fielding our regular core of veterans has made us competitive).  Thus, I think the fan voting idea would be a lot more fun.  It'd probably drive website hits for astros.com and people would at least tune to the first inning or so of the game just to see their lineup in action. Plus the Astros could partner with a carrier like AT&T or Verizon to have the text-to-vote feature only be available for those subscribers; just more money in the bank.
  3. I wish Drayton were really considering selling the Astros.  It's totally unlikely seeing as how they're at the nadir of their value and it's not a sellers market—unless a bankruptcy court orders it—but how awesome would be? Think about it.  Drayton wouldn't want to sell the team this offseason; the process takes too long and he'd have to do some emergency upping of the Astros value.  Suddenly that idea of paring back payroll to offset the loss in ticket sales is a thing of the past.  Your $140 million 2010 Astros would be taking the field in style as Drayton tried to bring the value back to his franchise as potential buyers salivated at the sight of a packed MMP and a healthy number of wins above losses.
  4. In order to finance greater offseason spending, Drayton went ahead and sold ad space on the players' uniforms.  I just think it'd be awesome because he could probably charge a premium for Carlos Lee's extra surface area.
  5. I desperately want there to be a way that you could just fast forward from the point your team dropped from relevancy, decency, and (some other english word ending in "ncy" and describing something that's worth watching), so you could just know what their final record was, and what draft pick that would have next year.  The last few weeks have been depressing because by the time I leave work and get to check my phone to see what the score is, the Astros have, at least 90% of the time, been losing—by a lot. The only fascination left is just to see how low they can go for the sake of the 2010 draft.  I'd much rather hit fast foward than open up the Astros app day in and day out to discover that there's no reason to go home and turn on the game—that's an awfully sharp kick in the gut to sustain four or five days a week.

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Fan Voting/Managing

There was a minor league team a little while back that actually let fans vote on the lineup, fielding positions, and the pitching rotation. Fans who submitted a lineup sat in a special section of the stadium and had paddles that said YES/NO….the manager of the team sat in a rocking chair in the stands and called out in-game decisions for the fans to vote on, like whether a new pitcher should be warmed up.

by AstroAndy on Oct 3, 2009 10:47 AM CDT reply actions  

A couple thoughts ...

2 things:

I really like the idea of the fan voting BUT how many fans pay attention to the minor leagues and guys like Johnson and Manzella and would vote to let them play versus the so-called “Big Names” I know we do and Id hope we’d all be busy voting, but would we outnumber the others, and therefore, would it change anything .. I still think with a fan vote that Tejada would still be out there and Manzella and Johnson wouldnt be .. I could be wrong, but that’s my feeling .. Like I said, I do like the idea though ..

And second:

Interesting comment about Drayton selling the team. There is a rumor being reported by Sporting News that the D-Backs and Astros are for sale. Of course the owners of both teams deny it .. but then does anyone expect them not to?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;ylt=Am.cPnYFnM5XPXD3f5ID2QRvLYF?slug=tsn-astrosanddiamondback&prov=tsn&type=lgns

That’s the link… It’s not a long article, but since you mentioned it, I thought Id link to the article… As this is Drayton, he probably is being truthful about not wanting to sale, but then who knows …

by strosfannate on Oct 3, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Exactly what I was thinking in regards to fan voting.

by timmy_ on Oct 4, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

As for point no. 1, if the players had to pay back money for sub-WAR performance, then it would only be fair that the team has to pay more than the contracted salary for above-WAR performance. That might create some uncertainty as to the budget level, but it also creates an incentive for the player to overperform. I’m not sure what incentive this would create for the team during the off=season….maybe an incentive to sign more veterans with established production rather than younger players with upside.

As for point no. 2, although I wanted to see Manzella and Johnson get more playing time, that’s mostly just a matter of fan interest on my part. In reality, the sample size is so small that it means little in terms of player evaluation. The huge numbers posted by Towles in 07 after his call up probably had a misleading impact on team decision making, because the Astros penciled him into a starting slot too early in his career.

As for the general decline of the Astros…I think 2007 was the key year. The decision to replace Pettitte with Jennings, the signing of Carlos Lee (and with less consequence, Woody Williams), the decision not to offer arbitration and scoop up a slew of high draft choices, and the decisions not to sign draft picks—all happened that year. All of that together was like putting the franchise into a nose dive.

For some reason, my frame of mind about the Astros is more optimistic than it has been in awhile. Maybe it’s delusional. But I like the fact that the Astros may have two young studs for the rotation next year (Norris and Paulino), and I am excited that the Astros don’t have to fill a hole in CF, plus I like some of the young bullpen arms, as well as the general improvement in the Astros’ farm system. I also have this hope that McLane will come to the realization that he has to put a competitive team together next year in order to maintain his “brand,” despite his comments about budget cutting. (OK, maybe that part is delusional.)

by clack on Oct 3, 2009 11:22 AM CDT reply actions  

I'm cautiously optimistic about 2010, too

I think our pitching can be much improved, but for some reason this arduousness of the Astros continually losing down the stretch has just beat the life out of me. These are all just half baked ideas I’ve had as I’ve watched/thought about this teams current state.

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 3, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree with most of this

 I like your WAR extra pay and less pay concept on it s face. I’m sure if I thought much about injuries,etc I’d start finding flaws but the concept is good.

To be a contrarian, we have an idea of what Towles, Manzella, Johnson and Maysonet can do and it ain’t pretty: They were 4/5ths of the infield for the team with worst record in AAA this year (and that with some solid pitching including the league’s Pitcher of the Year).

I also agree that what a callup shows in September has little bearing on the following year.

You make some good points about 2007 ( I cringed when I read the Pettitte and Jennings part). No doubt Tim Purpura devastated the Astros (may he never get a job in baseball again).

But we knew even before then the Astros future looked bleak. The core of the Astros, what made the Astros a team that players wanted to play for, was Bagwell and Biggio – their skills, attitude and clubhouse manner. They were special and we feared that when they were gone, the team would relapse.

Also , though he gets tons of (deserved) praise, Hunsicker traded away the Astros future several times for short -term benefit. Writers at the time predicted the Astros might face a decade long drought.

Not mentioned much anymore , but (And I forget his name) Astros had a man set up a Baseball school in Venezuela that attracted latin players, many having all star careers in Baseball now. Then the Astros dropped him and the program there withered. Meanwhile Tampa Bay (I sometime think the real Astros organization is in Tampa) scooped him up to help their recruitment and player development.

The future? As long as Bobby Heck is involved, I feel positive about the future. I am pleased with his track record so far. I gotta feel like the Astros can field a winner in 2010, though I don’t see it now. There must be more posiitve developments over the winner that I don’t see. The brightest spot is the young pitchers.

But Carlos Lee will be back -a huge salary preventing adding qualtiy players, his lack of movement hurting team offense and defense, and I think hurting team overall attitude and hustle (though he seems very likeable) .

I’m pessimistic about Roy Oswalt’s back.

I’m optimistic that the new manager will not destroy relievers,as Cooper did .

I’ll be here in 2010 -Right now Astros are tied for first in 2010.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 3, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m optimistic for the 2010 roster, even with a reduced budget. Mostly because of the rotation. We have two young guys whom some people have #3 stuff or even better in paulino and bud. Roy is starting a new core strengthening routine that could prevent his back problems and allow him to pitch a full season. Wandy is arguably the best #2 starter out there. Moehler (if returns) is surprisingly consistent and undervalued. Lopez has a chance to compete and he was good for part of his first start. Yorman will get to compete and may be able to translate his AAA success to the majors next year. Wesley Wright has good stuff and could be a good starter although i like him the pen. The pen should have 3 good and young arms if you count wright with fulchino and arias. Sampson will be healthy. I’m hoping we bring back Hawkins to close. Paronto was legit at AAA and maybe could be a good setup guy(he closed at RR).

Our fielding should be tons better if manzella gets the nod at SS and tejada comes back for 3rd. We’ll lose a little power by losing blum in that lineup but the defensive upgrade will overshadow that IMO.

by Subber10 on Oct 3, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

i forgot to mention a manager that wont abuse the bullpen so the bullpen stays healthy

by Subber10 on Oct 3, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

What might be a bit more realistic than the overpay/underpay according to WAR scenario would be an amendment to the CBA that allows for performance-based incentives.

Right now, players can only have incentive clauses in their contracts that are based on post-season awards like MVPs, Gold Gloves, and Cy Youngs, and what I consider “perfect attendance” sort of awards like for # of innings pitched…which only incentivize performance at a level such that you are barely better than a bench player.

Allowing for performance based contracts would give ballclubs a huge advantage in contract negotiations, so the MLBPA would be unlikely to ever sign on to it. And owners may be reluctant to see this happen because it would create large amounts of uncertainty the payroll.

It’s a fun idea to toy around with. For example, imagine bringing Ben Sheets in on a $3M guaranteed base contract + $100k for every 10 IP +10% if ERA is less than 4.00 + 10% if ERA is less than 3.25, etc…

by AstroAndy on Oct 3, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Asrtos -Mets game Saturday is on (Carlos Lee fantastic catch)

With two Mets on base, A left-handed batter slices a fly near the left field foul line. Carlos Lee runnignas fast as he can got there in a slidign catrch , then slid into the wall with his glove held high.

The umpire ruled no catch. Calos Lee got up pleased until he saw the ump’s call. He rushed in super-agitated. Meanwhile the two Mets runners came home.

Clark came out. The umpire kept sayng “calm down calm down”

The umpire talked it over with the other umpires and reversed the call, giving Lee credit for the inning ending catch.

Replay showed Carlos caught the ball about a foot above the ground.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 3, 2009 1:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Don't tempt me.

$140 million Houston Astros? Lackey, Wolf, Figgins, Scutaro, Hudson. Sounds like victory to me.

by OremLK on Oct 3, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions  

or more

Matsui, Lee type of contracts.

Think overpaid Tejada, possibly Valverde and another veteran player in decline or on the cusp of a decline.

by timmy_ on Oct 4, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, obviously you want to do things smart. Avoid no trade clauses and deals longer than three years (ideally less than that). Matsui is a relatively small part of the problem, anyway… not such a bad thing to take a risk on contracts that size, as long as you’re willing to cut your losses if things don’t work out.

Then again, this IS the Astros.

by OremLK on Oct 5, 2009 4:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

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