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Astros Roster Breakdown: The Relievers

Your Tuesday morning special is a look at the 2009 Astros bullpen. First, though, I thought we could consider a question:

Can a minor league reliever be considered a prospect?

Almost all the Astros homegrown bullpen additions this decade have been starters in the minors before making the major leauge club. Guys like Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Chris Sampson made a successful transition into relievers, but started almost all of their games on the farm. Lately, though, the Astros have been moving prospects into the bullpen earlier in their minor league career and still giving them a shot to make the club.

As a comparison, only three players in the past 13 years have made their major league debut for the Astros after not starting more than 10 games in the minors. They were:

  • Wayne Franklin, came over from Dodgers, but was a minor league reliever before being called up in 2000. Franklin started just seven games in the minors before coming up during the first year at Enron, which was a wasteland of relievers. Remember the best pitcher in the 2000 bullpen, Joe Slusarsky? Yeah, it was bad. Franklin was sent back to the minors in 2001 and put into the starting rotation, much like the Astros are talking about doing with Wesley Wright (more on that later).
  • Brandon Puffer, went through three organizations before being called up in 2002, but only started six games in minors. Puffer doesn't show this as much, because he bounced around so much early in his career. Plus, his funky sidearm delivery was probably not though of as something that would hold up in a starter's role, forcing him into the 'pen.
  • Alvin Morman was called up in 1996, but only started 19 games in the minors. Even then, he was only used as a starter for part of one season (1994), when he started all 19 games at Double-A Jackson. Morman was a relatively high pick (6th round, 1991), but stayed in the pen for most of his career, as some leftys do.

That all changed this season when Sammy Gervacio made his big league debut. The 24-year old never started a game in the minors before appearing in 29 games this season over two stints in Houston. Another reliever, Chia-Jen Lo, is doing well in the Arizona Fall League after signing out of Taiwan last season. Lo also has been used mainly as a reliever along with a couple other mid-level prospects, like Danny Meszaros. Still, there is not a good history of guys with this profile succeeding. It will be interesting to track whether this is a trend that is changing or if these prospects will flame out once they get to the show. With that, let's get on with a look at the bullpen...

 

Star-divide

Tim Byrdak, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-2, 61 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 76 games, 58 strikeouts, 36 walks, 10 HR, 1.22 WHIP, 129 ERA+

FIP: 5.29

Leverage: 24 High, 13 Medium, 36 Low

BABiP: .188

GB/FB: 0.71

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: For a lefty specialist, Byrdak sure developed into a solid pitcher for the Astros. It really surprised me that he pitched in so many high leverage situations. His peripheral stats are worrying, as he was EXTREMELY lucky to give up so few hits and without a good defense, Byrdak would not have done nearly this well. The two things that jump out (other than his FIP and BABiP) were his homer rate (1.5 HR/9) and his walk rate (5.3 BB/9). Both were right in line with his career numbers, but are not great, especially the walk rate. At the same time, Byrdak has put up three straight seasons with ERAs of 3.00, so he's doing something right. Hopefully, he'll still be effective in 2010.


Chris Sampson, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 3 saves, 55 1/3 IP, 5.04 ERA, 49 games, 33 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2 HR, 1.57 WHIP, 82 ERA+

FIP: 3.24

Leverage: 25 high, 10 medium, 14 low

BABiP: .335

GB/FB:1.17

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: Talk about a hard luck season. Sampson suffered muscle spasms in his shoulder and was put on the DL in July. He came back but was ineffective and was finally optioned to Round Rock on August 13. Sampson pitched in some very tough situations and was somewhat unlucky before the injury, but his shoulder may still not be right. His FIP was much lower than his ERA, but his strikeout rate plummeted. Basically, Sampson was very hittable and that needs to change if he's going to be successful in 2010.


LaTroy Hawkins, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-4, 11 saves, 63 1/3 IP, 65 games, 2.13 ERA, 45 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 195 ERA+

FIP: 3.92

Leverage: 35 high, 10 medium, 17 low

BABiP: .283

GB/FB: 0.86

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Hawkins put up great numbers, especially considering he pitched in more high leverage situations this season than any other Astros reliever. He'll be 37 next season in his 16th big league season. Fun fact: Hawkins actually started 129 games in the minors and was used as a starter by Minnesota for three seasons in the majors before beginning his very lucrative career in the bullpen. Hawkins was probably a little lucky this past season and his strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about. Still, with the rest of the bullpen being as solid as it is, I could see Hawkins closing next season and filling in the rest of the 'pen with Arias, Fulchino and Gervacio.


Jeff Fulchino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-4, 82 IP, 61 games, 3.40 ERA, 71 strikeouts, 27 walks, 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, 122 ERA+

FIP: 3.52

Leverage: 18 high, 14 medium, 28 low

BABiP: .281

GB/FB: 0.93

Pitching Runs Created: 37

Notes: Thank you Kansas City Royals. The Astros plucked Fulchino off waivers last December and were rewarded with a great season out of the bullpen. In face, Fulchino's season almost makes up for how bad the other Royal imports (Jason Smith, Tyler Lumsden) were. While his strikeout rate doesn't strike fear in the hearts of other teams, Fulchino did avoid giving up home runs for the most part. He also wasn't used in a ton of high leverage situations, so his stats were perfect for middle relief. 


Jose Valverde, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 25 saves, 54 IP, 52 games, 2.33 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 21 walks, 5 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 178 ERA+

FIP: 3.50

Leverage: 26 high, 13 medium, 10 low

BABiP: .261

GB/FB: 0.66

Pitching Runs Created: 34

Notes: Valverde was exactly what the Astros needed. He brought a swagger to the mound that this team lacked. Injuries robbed him of time this season and the fact that the Astros weren't very good down the stretch held his save total down. You can't ask for much more out of a closer, though, as he managed to strike out one an inning and his home run rate was the lowest since 2005. He has enough concerning factors to his season that I worry about giving him a long term deal. For one, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his BABiP meant his season was more lucky than you'd like. With a couple more hits landing, his numbers could easily have skewed upwards more. Since he's already suffered through an injury-riddled season, what will happen if the Astros give him a 4-to-5 year deal and he's hurt for half of it?


Alberto Arias, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 2-1, 45 2/3 innings, 3.35 ERA, 42 games, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, 1 HR, 1.49 WHIP, 124 ERA+

FIP: 3.11

Leverage: 12 high, 8 medium, 22 low

BABiP: .340

GB/FB: 1.68

Pitching Runs Created: 18

Notes: When discussing Ed Wade's best moves, Arias has to be among them. While not a home run-type move, Arias was gotten for nothing and has turned into a very effective reliever. Arias had a higher-than-normal BABiP, meaning he was a little unlucky in posting a higher-than-league average ERA. The only thing that's a little concerning about Arias going forward is his strikeout rate is a bit low. Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season. 


Wesley Wright, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-4, 44 2/3 IP, 5.44 ERA, 49 games, 47 strikeouts, 25 walks, 9 HR, 1.75 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 5.14

Leverage: 7 high, 18 medium, 24 low

BABiP: .358

GB/FB: 0.82

Pitching Runs Created: 14

Notes: The word is the Astros would like to make Wright into a starter. With his age (25) and relative lack of innings to this point, it may take an entire season at Triple-A for Wright to make the transition. Having more left-handed starters, though, can't be a bad thing. Wright has been effective and used in semi-big situations. While Cooper didn't have as much confidence in him as Byrdak (judging by leverage situations), Wright did an adequate job and still strikes out a ton of batters. Even if he loses 2 strikeouts per nine innings off his rate by moving into the starting rotation, he'll still be very effective. 


Sammy Gervacio, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-1, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 29 games, 25 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 HR, 1.14 WHIP, 194 ERA+

FIP: 2.25

Leverage: 7 high, 7 medium, 15 low

BABiP: .319

GB/FB: 1.24

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: As I mentioned above, Gervacio was one of the few Astros prospects to make the big league without starting a game in the minors. Gervacio was the only Astro with a double-digit K/9 rate, and had a smaller walk rate than in the minors. Still, Gervacio didn't pitch many innings, but showed enough to be a big contributor next season. He was used in a few high leverage situations and didn't embarrass himself. In fact, his usage pattern was somewhat surprising for a rookie. His FIP and BABiP all showed that his performance was not a fluke, though with his innings, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw huge conclusions. I would be happy to use him in the 'pen in 2010, though, instead of a more expensive option (see: Valverde, Jose). 


Geoff Geary, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 20 IP, 8.10 ERA, 16 games, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HR, 2.00 WHIP, 51 ERA+

FIP: 6.05

Leverage: 6 high, 4 medium, 6 low

BABiP:.382

GB/FB: 0.54

Pitching Runs Created: 3

Notes: Geary is a good example of why teams shouldn't spend a ton of money on non-closers. Relievers are so fungible, it's hard to justify spending the money for a multi-year contract when their performance can vary so greatly. Take Geary; in 2008, he was a good addition to the 'pen and one of the better throw-ins to the Brad Lidge trade. In 2009? Geary finished the season in the minors and was granted free agency. The righty never could get locked in this season, even though he was used about the same in leveraged situations. His BABiP was high, which means he was probably unlucky. I could see Geary having a productive year for someone in 2010, though it probably won't be the Astros.


Doug Brocail, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-0, 17 2/3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 20 games, 9 strikeouts, 13 walks, 4 HR, 1.95 WHIP, 91 ERA+

FIP: 7.28

Leverage: 4 high, 2 medium, 12 low

BABiP: .298

GB/FB: 0.94

Pitching Runs Created: 6

Notes: It's safe to say the Doug Brocail experiment didn't work out as the Astros had planned. It's not that Brocail did poorly. In fact, you could argue that he was Houston's most effective reliever in 2008. However, his age may have caught up to him this season, as Brocail only played 20 games before suffering an arm injury (?). What's interesting is looking at what leveraged situations Brocail was used in this season. For someone who was so good a season before, Cooper obviously didn't want to use him in pressure situations in 2009, as he was used in twice as many low pressure situations as anything else.


Chad Paronto, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 6 2/3 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6 games, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4 HR, 2.40 WHIP, 34 ERA+

FIP: 10.50

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 6 low

BABiP: .407

GB/FB: 0.50

Pitching Runs Created: 1

Notes: Paronto has been great for Round Rock the past two seasons, but battled injuries in 2009. He was called up in September and gave up a ton of home runs, but was a tad unlucky. Paronto is exactly the kind of arm the Astros have collected at Triple-A the past few years. He's serviceable but probably only needed in spot duty in the majors, if there is an injury.


Billy Sadler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 1 1/3 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 game, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0 HR, 2.25 WHIP, 31 ERA+

FIP: 2.40

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 1 low

BABiP: .500

GB/FB: 1.00

Pitching Runs Created: 0

Notes: The only Astros pitcher to not get at least one Pitching Run Created, the story was that Wade promised Sadler he'd be added to the big league team before the end of the season. That's why he got the call-up at the end of September, though Sadler didn't pitch much at all. Fun moments in small sample size: Sadler's FIP was 11 runs lower than his ERA, but only because he struck out two in his 1 1/3 innings. Of course, now Sadler's a free agent and probably won't come back. But we'll always have that 1 1/3 innings.

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Nice breakdown

The two keys that I look at are Arias and Sampson, they both pitched tremendously well but eventually over use caught up to them, and hopefully their are no negative side effects from the injuries suffered.

A suggestion I’d like to make, cause I’d like to see it is the ground out to fly out ratio, or just whether they’re more of a ground ball or fly ball pitcher.

by timmy_ on Oct 27, 2009 7:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Duly noted

Will update this post with G/F ratios and will add to the starters post that’s forthcoming

by David Coleman on Oct 27, 2009 8:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just a quick thing I noticed…you’ve got Arias’s 2009 GB/FB listed at 1.68, which would be a good ratio for any reliever. For example, we tend to think of Sampson as a good groundball pitcher, and his 2009 GB/FB was 1.83.

But fangraphs has his 2009 GB/FB listed as 2.72, which is excellent. And it’s not a fluke either…Arias’s career GB/FB is around 3.00.

You said “Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season”. One thing that’s interesting to look at is how much of opposing batters’ contact went for infield hits…11.5%. Just for context, Ichiro’s career infield hit rate is 12.7%, and is one of the highest in baseball.

Arias is excellent at simply keeping the ball in the park, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if his HR/FB go up, I don’t think it will have a drastic effect on his numbers/results.

by AstroAndy on Oct 27, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That’s weird…I pulled the G/F from Baseball Reference. They also list his groundball out/air out ratio as 2.41, so that couldn’t be the difference. I wonder why two different places have such widely disparate numbers for something that should be pretty normal across the boards.

by David Coleman on Oct 27, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very confusing the go/ao on the mlb.com site is 2.72. The only difference i see from BR is that their go/ao counts dp’s as two.

GB/FB also counts line drives while I believe GO/AO does not count line drives. So maybe fangraphs is using GB/FB without the line outs.

I just looked up on all three sites (mlb.com, BR, fangraph) for Chris Sampson and all three have different numbers for his ratio. So to me each site is interrupting the information differently and maybe they just don’t care as much about the accuracy of this particular stat.

Fangraphs though is the only one that, I can see, will give you the GB% and FB% as well as location of batted balls, so you can crunch the numbers yourself. Which by my calculations they are accurate, the other sites I don’t know where their GB/FB or GO/AO information is coming from.

by timmy_ on Oct 27, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Inclusion or exclusion of infield pop ups is another variable.

by clack on Oct 27, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1. I think the development of reliever-only pitchers in the minors is a relatively recent trend among all teams. Generally it involves high velocity arms who are being developed as possible closers or late inning relievers. I suppose that the high cost and value of closers may be partly responsible for the trend. Teams are drafting college closers with the idea that they can get to the majors fasters (e.g., Huston Street). Jason Motte and Chris Perez from the Cardinals’ organization are examples of this trend—they are relievers who never started in the minors. I’m not sure I like this trend. If a guy has a big arm, I would rather try to develop him as a starter until he proves otherwise, unless there is a significant injury risk.

2. I’m not sure I agree with you about Arias’ strikeout rate. His very high groundball rate offsets any weakness in the K rate. The 2 seam fastball won’t produce as many strike outs, but the trade off should be that the HR and X-tra base hit rate is suppressed, plus he should produce a lot of DPs. His K rate (7.69) is actually really good for a GB pitcher, which is one reason I like his future. Last season I compared him to a future Qualls type reliever (hopefully better). By the way, Fangraphs shows a different GB/Fly rate: 2.05.

3. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Byrdak. It’s not that his stuff is bad—-he has pretty good swing and miss type stuff. But his walks seems to come in the worst situations. Byrdak is frequently brought in to face only 1 or 2 LHBs. Yet, way too many times he walked the one batter he was brought in to face and then left the game. That’s not success, in my book, but these “failures” usually don’t show up in the ERA.

by clack on Oct 27, 2009 9:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Your point #3:
In 2009, Byrdak pitched in 76 games, and in 25 of those, he came in and got one out or less. This matched up well with my intuition about how he was being used. But combing through his 2009 gamelogs, I was surprised to see how often he faced 5 or more batters: 18 times.

I’m wondering how the new manager, whoever he might be, will affect his usage.

by AstroAndy on Oct 27, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The interesting thing about Byrdak is he’s been able to post pretty good ERAs for the past three seasons, even though his walk rate is terrible and his FIP is correspondingly high. He’s not a setup man, but he’s a surprisingly effective bullpen lefty, as long as he stays cheap.

by David Coleman on Oct 27, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

1. correction…Andy is right the GB/FB rate at Fangraphs is 2.72 rather than 2.05 which I listed. I incorrectly picked up the K/BB ratio.

2. Perhaps Byrdak should be used as a middle reliever rather than LOOGY, when you consider that his splits against RHB were better than LHB last year.

by clack on Oct 27, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who do you keep?

After looking at Cots, looks like the guys you list above who will most likely be kept would be Brydak, Sampson, Wright AAA, Arias, Fulchino, Gervacio.

Will they be able to retain Hawkins? Valverde is most likely gone, and then after that who is the closer? Do you go Gervacio or Fulchino? I say Fulchino.

by backtocali on Oct 27, 2009 9:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Arias is a better candidate for closer than either Gervacio or Fulchino. But I would rather re-sign Hawkins or perhaps pick up another free agent reliever with some closer experience, like Sherrill. A Sherrill sign might even provide a possible LHP platoon with Arias as closer. I always liked the closer combos of the 80’s and early 90’s when lefty/righty platoon options were used in the 9th, depending on the circumstance.

by clack on Oct 27, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Barring any injury Arias looks like a good option as closer, as I mentioned earlier in the year in one of the game threads Arias was producing Riveria type of numbers. Now my conclusion that he was due to regress, and he did but I’m wondering how much of that was attributed to his over use. Hopefully his injury doesn’t have any negative side effects, and can have a bounce back year.

by timmy_ on Oct 27, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hawkins

I wonder how much he has left in the tank. He’s been pretty fortunate lately.

I wouldnt want him as a closer though. The Cubs gave him big money to do it after he left the Twins, and he couldnt handle the job. He is just a classic set up guy, a lot like Wheeler was.

by backtocali on Oct 27, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chris Sampson

Cecil Cooper overused Sampson ,and kept overusing him after he was hurt. I hope the damae done can be undone withe rest . Sampson (and the Astros) deserve a return to Sampson prouctive conditin (as a reliever or even as a starter)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 27, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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