The Crawfish Boxes: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Interview With UMD Athletic Director, Dr. Debbie Yow

Let's Hope Bill James Projections for Astros Pitching is Wrong

Former Houston Astros' pitcher Shawn Chacon

More photos » Pat Sullivan - AP

Former Houston Astros' pitcher Shawn Chacon

HLP or DQ may be planning a more comprehensive preview of the Bill James Astros' player projections for next year.   But I will make a quick hit here on some Astros' pitcher projections.   And let me preface this with my own personal reservation: I am skeptical of projection systems' forecasts for young players who have limited track records.  This is a common sense observation based on the fact that all projection systems use some form of extrapolation from known major league stats and, for younger players, minor league stats.  The more limited data on young players makes the projections less reliable for them.   And the Astros are likely to rely on some young pitchers next year.

First, the following Astros' rotation looks like a disaster, if the James' projections are right:

Oswalt  205 IP  3.60 ERA

Wandy Rodriguez  212 IP  4.12 ERA

Bud Norris  107 IP  5.05 ERA

Paulino  130 IP  5.19  ERA

Moehler  163  IP  5.08  ERA

Oswalt's projection is a reasonably decent result.   Wandy's ERA would increase by more than a full run per game over 09; apparently some of Wandy's past inconsistency still factors into the projection.   The Norris and Paulino projections are significantly worse than their x-FIP results last year.   But, since both are young pitchers, a high ERA like that isn't out of question.   The Moehler projection is probably about right.

As for the bullpen, two young pitchers whom most of us are hoping can be late inning stalwarts don't project out very well.

Fulchino   93 IP  4.94  ERA

Arias  33 IP  4.65  ERA

Both results wiould represent a major disappointment.  Again, I think the spotty track record for both pitchers is the reason that the good performances last year have been discounted by the projection.   Arias has great stuff, but he hasn't pitched a lot in the majors prior to last sason.   Fulchino has a good fastball and picked up a splitter this season, which seemed to make a big difference in his results.   But Fulchino has been erratic in the big leagues in the past season.  And, if we want to be honest, it's always possible that he could regress toward his past record.

For closer....Hawkins or Valverde?

Valverde  67 IP, 38 Saves, 3.22 ERA

Hawkins  63 IP, 3.29  ERA

I left out Hawkins' projection of zero saves, since it is based on an assumption that he is used as set up man.

The projections are kinder to another key bullpen arm, Chris Sampson.  Again, I think this comes down to a better track record for Chris.   Chris Sampson....35 IP, 3.86 ERA.  Well, hold on there...only 35 innings pitched.  That's like projecting an injury.

It will be interesting to see if we get some better outcomes on the ZIPS and CHONE projections for these players.  Any thoughts?

 

 

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I'm skeptical about the projections

I tend to lend more weight to recent performance, adjusted for luck (BABIP, HR/Fly Ball, etc) and other factors (injuries, park effect, platoon usage). Take this more as an example than anything else, but look at Wandy’s 2009 Bill James projection:

4.43 ERA
25 Games
136 IP
110 SO
51 BB

We all know how that turned out. Now Wandy has posted two consecutive seasons of mid-3 FIP and a consistent pattern of improving each and every season… and he’s still projected for a 4+ ERA? What gives?

by OremLK on Oct 26, 2009 6:52 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know, since I haven’t seen the internals of the projection system, which the Bill James Handbook probably considers proprietary. (James, himself, doesn’t perform the projections anymore…it’s handled by people at Acta Publishing, I think.) Possibly the aging curve after 30 years old isn’t good for Wandy in their system. As I said, I think we can get a better idea when we see some of the other projection system results. In general, Wandy is a pitcher who has outperformed his projections in recent years.

by clack on Oct 26, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

How long 'til Spring Training?

I’m ready to start a new season.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

and yet

there’s still so much that needs to be addressed before the offseason ends. Tejada, Valverde, and co. are all free agents, Wandy and Pence are up for arbitration, and a whole new coaching staff needs to be hired.

It’s weird how this offseason feels pretty much the same as last offseason.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 26, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

so hard to know

if the are reconstructing or maintaining the status quo

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 27, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Crawfishboxes, the SBNation blog for the Houston Astros.
Start posting about the Astros »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Pitching Mechanics/Terms To Look/Listen For

Recent FanPosts

Johns_small
Vallejo and Lyon News
Small
Beating a Dead Horse: Should Berkman be a LHB?
Small
Pre-Spring NL Overview/Predictions
Small
Looking ahead to the 2010 mlb draft
39135485-59af19dbb26654095f910f34176af094_4ae8a81e-scaled_small
Predictions Group
Fbod6_small
Boys of Summer Revisited
Kids_small
Outsider's Astros prospects 30-21
Small
McTaggart: Wandy and Astros going to arbitration
Nsapcs13_large_small
Gumbel, Pearlman throw Bagwell into the McGwire mess

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

THE CRAWFISH BOXES GETS SOCIAL

Picture_88_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Facebook

Picture_89_medium The Crawfish Boxes on Twitter

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 2.9.2010 at 5:43 PM CST)


Humble Blog Managers

Woodstock_small HighLeveragePerformer

Lovelance_small DyingQuail

Old_school_dome_logo_small David Coleman

Editors

Nsapcs13_large_small clack

Fbod6_small farm_stros