Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 22, 2009 9:32 AM CDT
in Link Dumps
Email
PrintAs a warning, I'm three cups of coffee in, but still no closer to not hating the world for having me be awake, so my tone may be a bit jaded. C'est la vie, right?
I'm starting with the most interesting bit of information I managed to cull from my hunt for worthy links this morning. I broke my rule about putting JJO on a one month suspension for out pacing Justice as the Chronicle writer who most confused me as to how their mind let them at arrive at their conclusions. I'm glad that I did, though, because I came across this important piece of information:
Something to consider since there has been relatively little word from the front office as to who has advanced to the second round.
Probably not a good idea, given my state this AM, but I read Justice's latest entry after JJO. The Phil Garner love train, as conducted by Richard Justice, has officially come to halt it seems. Justice is now of the opinion that Acta is the front runner—though the important piece of why he suddenly thinks this was omitted from his article—and is now singing his praises:
Of the candidates we know that are left, it's Acta or bust for me. But I'm still confused as to how Justice just suddenly dropped Garner like he was hot. I know that there's a mention of Garner above, but in a week's time, Justice went from giving us Drayton's mailing address to pimp Garner, to mentioning him as virtual afterthought. That's weird, right?
OK, I can't even pretend like my ire at life didn't bias my selection today. Here's a line from McTaggart's latest blog entry that has been up for awhile, but I never read in depth. When I came across this line about Bogar's chances at becoming the next manager, I contemplated trying to start a riot outside of MMP:
Bogar, over the last few days, had become my new favorite, but now, ostensibly because he hadn't actually put on the manager's cap and handled star players, he wasn't brought back for a second interview. Is the man not in Boston's club house? Did he not spend last year watching BJ Upton? Could the Astros front office make me want to slam my head against a brick wall anymore? I mean just think of what the front office is depriving us of: the sheer comedy that could spring from Bogar's name if things went south for him...We brought back Garner over Bogar...I...but...damnit
Alright, I have one last Astros related link that rankles me, and then I'll stop with the vitriol. BtB released it's Power Ranking's based recap of the NL Central. Here's what was said of our Houston Astros:
I'm a sabr-guy, but come on. Really? Wandy's performance this year wasn't legit? That's the implication. His xFIP since 2007 has been 4.29, 3.92, 3.66. His K/9 has increased each year, and his BB/9 went from 3.1 in 2007 to 2.9 in both 2008 and 2009. Watching him on the mound, he's clearly pitching from a different mindset. The entire BtB Power Rankings experience is now complete thanks to this recap. We can list this a example number 1034938772973084 of why it usually takes more than a cursory knowledge of a team to accurately report on them in this kind of a fashion.
Now for just two cool links [I do feel better having channeled my frustration with life on to others, thankfully]:
JC Bradbury provides some evidence that Dave Duncan just may definitively be a pitching genius.
A very cool op-ed style piece from StatSpeak writer PizzaCutter in a Fan Post over at BtB about the manger's utilization of small sample sizes for strategic decisions. It was by far the most enjoyable piece I read this morning.
22 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
...
I’m a sabr-guy, but come on. Really? Wandy’s performance this year wasn’t legit? That’s the implication.
I think JinAZ’s point was that Wandy’s performance was very similar to what he has been doing since ‘07. And that’s mostly true, right? His walk rate is a little lower, strikeout rate a little higher, but the main change between 2008 Wandy and 2009 Wandy was health and some better luck.
The implication I got from his statement was that Wandy has been good for a while, but most (even amongst the SABR community) haven’t noticed.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
Fair enough
Like I said: bias towards anger this AM.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 22, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I thought he was talking about Pudge Rodirguez when lumped with Matsui and Blum
He said Wandy was “Awesome” -( the rest of the picthing was average)
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 22, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
With respect to small sample size decisions by managers, it would be interesting to know how much weight managers give to a larger small sample vs. a really small small sample (the 7 at bats example shown by Pizza Cutter). I might be inclined to give some weight to 20 at bats against ah given pitcher (particularly if it’s slugging, and not just batting average), even though it’s still not statistically significant, but I have to agree that a 3 for 7 line doesn’t mean much. I suppose the rationale for small sample size decisions is that some information is better than no information. So, if a manager is deciding which game to play X player (say, that it’s a bench player who has to get a start every week to keep sharp), he may not have much other information to make the decision (particularly if he has already taken platoon split into account). If I’m a manager in that situation, I might pick the game when the hitter faces a pitcher whom he has raked against in, say, 25 at bats.
I also agree wtth Pizza Cutter that small sample size decisions by managers may make more sense if they are used to corroborate other subjective factors which make you think that the hitter should perform well against the pitcher. For example, this hitter has a good history against X pitcher, who is a sinkerballer, which makes sense because the player is a low ball hitter.
Another question on this subject: do small sample size pitcher-batter splits sometimes get in the pitcher’s head, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy? I think some managers may have that thought in mind—whether true or not, who knows? However, almost all pitchers can name a set of hitters whom they just can’t seem to get out. Does that create negative thinking by the pitcher when the hitter comes up?
I’ve recently heard some discussion about this as well, and I think it is a fair point that small sample sizes of 7 ab’s or even 15 could be thrown out the window, I’d argue that even 20 is still not considered enough ab’s to make a good decision. This all comes down to pitcher_name vs batter_name, where like you said it might be a better idea to corroborate and look at pitcher_type vs batter_name.
Don’t ask Joe Morgan that last question you might find that he says a certain pitcher used to get him out all the time, then look at the match up and find Joe Morgan used to crush said pitcher.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 22, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, the normal infrequency of an event (e.g., HRs are less frequent than hits) and the extremity of the deviation from the mean are additional factors (in addition to sample size) which affect the statistical significance. In other words, as an extreme example, if a hitter gets 20 HRs in 20 at bats against a pitcher, I think we can be confident that the hitter hits that pitcher well.
Cecil Cooper
Isn’t even that dumb to allow a pitcher to face that hitter after the first 10 HR’s =P
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure it’s up for consideration, but you want to apply that to other statistics. You shouldn’t base your decision soley on that 12/15 number.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't understand the Acta love
Nothing about Acta in my mind shoots him to Olympic heights, or even distinguishes him from several of the other candidates. In fact, several – Bogar, Mackanin, Mills – to name three – seem better choices. What am I missing?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 22, 2009 10:49 AM CDT reply actions
I think for some of us, the fact that Acta has embraced sabermetrics—not just nominally, but at a level which indicates he has given it a lot of thought to it—is a breakthrough. Not many managers are willing to do so. Some may say they are open minded to sabermetrics—Yost read “The Book” for example and said it was interesting—but their conversants with the concepts seem superficial. I also prefer Acta’s age (all else equal, I want a more youthful manager), and his willingness to innovate. Even for old school fans, it’s worth noting that Frank Robinson picked Acta as his third base coach and recommended him to the Nats for the manager position.
Acta is a finalist for the Indians’ job and rumor has it that the Blue Jays want to hire him as manager. That tells you that he is highly respected in the baseball world. I alos think it’s no coincidence that the Indians and Blue Jays are considered sabermetric oriented organizations.
that said, I don't put Acta at "Olympian heights..."
But I do think he is the best of the finalists.
I think Yost's knowledge is more than superficial
I don’t think he’ll ever be a good manager though.
I expect you’ll disagree with me, but I think “sabermetrics” is a movement by a small group of people to succeed in careers. Its as much a brand name than anything else.
Bogar was my top choice
But with Acta I see baseball intelligence (at least it seems to be there), a knowledge of the players, and an ability to communicate with all of our players (in their native language).
Like clack said, he’s got a lot of respect from all camps, it seems.
I wouldn’t say Acta is a god amongst mere mortals, but he’s by far the only option left that I’m excited about.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 22, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Hottest manager prospect in baseball?
by Timothy De Block on Oct 22, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
We need
All the hot young talent we can get.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 22, 2009 1:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It's how ever you want to interpret it
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 23, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
My bigest problem with Acta
My biggest problem with being fully in his camp is what he did in Washington. Was the problem just bad talent, or was some of it him?
Id like to know what the ratio is (Yes I know that is not possible. LOL) Its just I do not know how to say it. Kinda cautious taking the manager of the Nats, thats all. Still better in my book then Garner thou.
difficult to gauge.
I would add another variable for responsibility—-the organization. The GM was fired in the off-season because of irregularities (kick backs, etc.) in the international scouting dept. The Nats then went with an interim GM, who waa fighting to keep his job. I don’t think the front office was fully supportive of Acta, since he wasn’t their guy. I think the Nats’ player personnel problem was more than just talent. The fired GM loaded the roster with perceived head cases whose behavior had worn thin in previous organizations (e.g., Milledge, Dukes, Dimitri Young). And some of the problem had to do with the wrong combination of players for defense (like three LFers to play the three outfield positions.). Part of the improvement during the season half of the Nats’ season was the result of trading for defensive improvement, and demoting/trading the head cases.
Garner
Is Phil Garner the Dusty Baker of the Astros?
He has had a few really good seasons as a manager, 92 with the Brewers and then 3 different seasons with Houston. I wonder if he manages as good as his talent level is (i.e. cant help but have a good record because he has great talent on the roster to deal with).
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Crawfish Boxes
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Rockies @ Minute Maid Park
|
Colorado Rockies
Friday, Apr 6, 2012, 6:05 PM CDT |
||
| Sat 04/07 | 6:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 04/08 | 1:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.9.2012 at 12:00 PM CST)
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
- Does Billy Beane’s contract extension signal an optimistic dawn for Oakland fans?
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
