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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Wednesday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

So incase anybody missed it, but the Yankees put it to the Angels last night and A-Rod continued to brush the proverbial dirt off his shoulders as he demonstrates that his previous small sample size of post-season AB don't mean anything. I'm not really an A-Rod fan.  I respect him because he's insanely gifted at the game of baseball.  But other than that I don't really care.  However, his clinic in "this is why a sample of fifty AB's tells you nothing about my true talent level" has me all kinds of sabr-giddy.

Ok, enough with the gushing.

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With respect to the Mariano Rivera event....

it’s also worth noting that MLB investigated the video and the claim that it shows Rivera spitting on the ball. The MLB concluded that he didn’t spit on the ball. Apparently, this was supported by different camera angles and still photos which show that he spit next to, but not on, the ball. MLB also said that their investigation showed that Rivera spits frequently when he is on the mound (OK, TMI).

by clack on Oct 21, 2009 10:25 AM CDT reply actions  

Justice article.

I don’t think I would say that it was the most annoying Justice blog. I was more annoyed by Justice’s blog giving out McLane’s address so that fans can urge him to sign up Phil Garner. That seems like Justice trying to put his finger on the scales for the Astros’ decision. I think Justice tries way too hard to influence Astros’ decisions. (Ironically, he worked at pushing for Cooper’s extension, and then he later worked at getting Cooper fired.) And should that really be his role? Also, the cynical side of me says that Justice wants Garner as the next manager only because he knows him and thinks he will get more quotable stuff from the manager in the future.

Having said that, though, Justice has written so many articles which I found to be disagreeable that I would have a difficult time figuring out which one irritated me more.

by clack on Oct 21, 2009 11:56 AM CDT reply actions  

I just read Justice's latest blog, comparing GMs in Houston...

and I had to laugh at this line, which addresses Ed Wade’s situation:

He inherited Cecil Cooper, and maybe his biggest mistake was that he couldn’t convince Drayton to pull the plug on him earlier. Drayton kept wanting to do right by Coop, and don’t you hate people like that? I made up my mind about the kid around 10 minutes after I said hiring him was a great idea.

So, Justice knew that Cooper was a mistake 10 minutes after he had written that it was a good idea? Of course, Justice doesn’t mention that he pushed for an extension to Cooper in April or May..

by clack on Oct 21, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sample Size

I don’t think you can complain about people criticizing ARod for a small sample size, and then call BtBs approach rational. Ultimately, I don’t care whether RIvera spit on the ball or not, but plotting the path of one “spitball” versus 12 cutters tells us nothing. Maybe the “spitball” was the worst ball Rivera threw all night, but the spit made it a mediocre pitch. Maybe it was the best ball he threw all night, and was actually clean, and all the pitches that had more break he actually secretly spit on. A sample size of one, particularly when the break of a single pitch can differ so much between throws, is borderline worthless.

by seanbergmanrules on Oct 21, 2009 11:58 AM CDT reply actions  

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