Bolstering the Astros Infield - Pt. 3: Shortstop of the Future
by OremLK on Oct 20, 2009 2:40 PM CDT
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PrintWhen I mentioned in my last FanPost that I wanted to talk about some unlikely ideas that Wade probably won't take to, I was thinking more about converted first basemen like Russell Branyan. A bit of news on MLB Trade Rumors caught my eye, though, and changed my mind. Let's talk about shortstops.
Chances are, Tommy Manzella will be the Astros shortstop next season. But what if Ed Wade decides to focus on the offense and let the pitching staff stand as it is? The best two positions to fill are still shortstop and third base, and neither Manzella nor Johnson are anywhere close to being can't miss prospects. In fact, as clack pointed out, Manzella has shown a pattern of performing poorly in his first season at a new level throughout his minor league career. Wade and co. certainly realize this. Are they willing to accept it like they did with Michael Bourn, or will they approach the matter with a "win now" attitude, acquiring both a shortstop and a third baseman?
If they do go after a shortstop, what players might they pursue?
1. Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is an interesting case. Prior to 2009, he never posted an OPS above .747. His career average is .721. However, his walk rate has always been good, and when his batting average is decent, he gets on base at a good clip. In 2009, his slash line was .282/.379/.409. Since OBP is more valuable than slugging, he was actually more productive offensively than the gaudier numbers Miguel Tejada posted. Other than the fact that it was his age 33 season and a career year, nothing in his numbers suggest that he simply got lucky. His BABIP was right where it should be, and much of the increase in performance was due to an even better walk rate than his career average. He's a better defensive shortstop than Tejada, especially the last three seasons--more or less average, according to UZR. Scutaro will be a free agent this off-season.
2. J.J. Hardy. The Brewers will almost certainly trade Hardy this off-season. We've already had some discussion about acquiring him. He's among the best defensive shortstops in the game, and if you assume that his poor offensive production in 2009 was a fluke (.229/.302/.357 as compared to his 2008 line of .283/.343/.478), the 27-year old Hardy could be a valuable multi-year acquisition. It would take prospects to get him, however--probably pitching. Much would depend on the demand for Hardy after his down year, but if he could be had for a reasonable price, he might be a worthwhile trade target.
3. Stephen Drew. Another potential trade target, the Diamondbacks are rumored to be shopping Drew this off-season. The 26-year old batted .261/.320/.428 in 2009, below his 2008 performance, when he hit .291/.332/.502. As a young shortstop with breakout potential, he's a tempting target, especially since the Diamondbacks likely won't ask for the moon. On the downside, his defense in 2006-2008 was poor, comparable to Tejada's. He did, however, show great signs of improvement in 2009, displaying above average capabilities according to UZR.
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The advantage of the two latter players is obviously that they are both young and show a lot of upside. But then again, Manzella is also young, and he's shown some potential at AAA--but he doesn't have MLB experience, and the above three do. The offense will be a problem in 2009, and acquiring a shortstop in addition to a third baseman would help, but would likely cost the Astros any chance of picking up a starting pitcher.
Any other good shortstop targets I'm missing? Let me know!
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Interesting ideas, though I’m not sold on Scutaro defensively and I think Manzella is actually a little old to be considered a long term solution at short. Think of him as a place-holder for 2-3 years till Jiovanni Mier is ready to go.
A lot of that depends on both players’ performances. Mier is a good prospect, but even first round high school picks have a high failure rate, and even if he does meet everyone’s expectations, it might be too optimistic to think he will be ready in 2-3 years. Remember that Mier is only 19. Only the very brightest stars make it to the big leagues as young at 21 years old, and it’s unusual for 22-year olds to make it up.
I will be thrilled if Mier performs that well, but more likely it’ll be around 4 years before he’s ready, making whatever shortstop(s) we use more than a stopgap measure. Four seasons is a long time in baseball.
The other side of it is that Manzella, while a little old for his level, still has a chance to at least replicate his AAA performance within the next couple years; a .750 OPS shortstop with great defense is a valuable asset, and while Mier might exceed that, maybe he won’t.
Other names…Jack Wilson may be a free agent. The Mariners have an option for 2010 but it’s seems expensive enough ($8 million) that they may not exercise it. The plus on Wilson is that he is probably the best defensive shortstop currently in the game. The miinus is that his OBP isn’t great, and he is a mediocre to bad hitter. But he is a Houston product who has excelled as a hitter in MMP (in 234 career PAs, his OPS is ..823 with 10 HRs at MMP…he loves the Crawford Boxes). I’m not really pushing him, because I figure he won’t be worth the salary he will ask for….if he costs more than $5 million, you might as well go with Manzella, who also fits the all-defense profile. But Wilson’s known defensive ability and affinity for the Crawford Boxes does give me pause.
Scutaro is the probably the best option—-if his price is reaasonable. You hate to pay for a career year.
Drew would be a terrific pick up. But I have a feeling that is too much to expect. I have my doubts about the D-Backs moving Drew; I"m not sure why they want to do that. I suspect he would require some good prospects in trade. However, Drew is a rare talent with huge upside. I think he can become a good defensive player, and at 25, he has time to do it. Watching him play against the Astros, Drew can be spectacular at times.
I like the idea of JJ Hardy
Now would be a good time to buy while his value is low, I’m thinking one of the OF prospects in the system. If you compare his minor league stats to his major league stats (both 5 seasons) they are very similar, and last year may of been just a regression towards his true mean. I’d expect a bounce back year for Hardy, but don’t expect another 2008 for Hardy it appears that after 2008 statistically he had been playing above his head to that point. I’d expect him to be a 90-100 OPS+ type of hitter, which is valuable for someone who can play a good defensive SS.
5 Minor League seasons – .271 avg .332 obp .405 slg .737 ops
5 Major League seasons – .262 avg .323 obp .428 slg .751 ops
by Timothy De Block on Oct 21, 2009 7:41 AM CDT reply actions
Hardy has exhibited above average defense (according to UZR) in each ML season. A mid- to high .700’s OPS would be a nice cmbination with that kind of consistent defense. As shown by Timmy’s comparision, above, Hardy’s OPS is weighted toward slugging but light on OBP. If I had my druthers, I would prefer more OBP from Hardy. But Hardy might find MMP to his liking.
I think the Brewers will press for pitching, rather than position player prosepcts, in return. R.J. Anderson has a fangraphs article today about Rick Peterson joining the Brewers’ coaching staff. Anderson suggests tha Hardy could bring a starting pitcher in return who is better than everyone in the Brewer’s rotation except for Gallardo.
I wouldn’t give up a top prospect, but I’d think someone like a Polin Trinidad (or another pitcher with a little more value) and another prospect or two, depending on value, would be a fair trade.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 21, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
and the Brewers GM wouldn’t agree with you. They don’t want borderline trash (which is what Trinidad is, as far as prospects go).
by seanbergmanrules on Oct 21, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Why is Polin Trinidad trash?
He’s not your typical strikeout power pitcher, but he is a very efficient control pitcher.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 22, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t know that “trash” is a totally fair description, but he doesn’t have much trade value. His MLE FIP is 5.62. At best he would be an extra piece to sweeten a deal.
Trinidad's MLE
at the beginning of the year was 7.43 according to this article:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/8/15/990503/young-astros-pitchers-and-their
If his MLE FIP is 5.62 I’d say that’s an improvement and in a couple years he may just turn into a pretty good pitcher.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 7:14 AM CDT up reply actions
check that
IN AUGUST not the beginning of the year (could of sworn it said April)
Still if that’s the case then 3 months ago it was 7.43 and now it’s 5.62, that shows improvement to me. He still does need another year in the minors at least and probably a year in the majors, but he could be a quality number 3 starter.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions
his strikeout numbers have never been really good except for his 2007 season at A and A+ levels when his K/9 was 8.22 and 8.06 respectively. i’d love that at the major league level but its not something i’d expect. Given he develops out and is a major league pitcher, i’d say in the low 6’s is his max and that isn’t a #3 pitcher…#4 is probably his ceiling more likely a 5, but he’ll probably be consistent at whatever he develops into. definetly not something other GM’s will be willing to take alone
Trinidad’s MLE FIP is 5.62 for the season split between AA and AAA, but the MLE for AAA, alone, is 6.77. You can evaluate that however you want. But it reflects that Polin was very good in AA but regressed when he moved up a level. I certainly wouldn’t call Polin “trash,” but he is not a high level prospect. Pitchers who post relatively low K rates in the minors, particularly if the GB rate isn’t high, will always be viewed with some skepticism.
I would add that you are correct, Timmy, to point out that Trinidad pitched better after the August article was written (and I assume that may have been based on results through the first week of August). His FIP was 3.46 in September and the MLE FIP for the last 28 days he pitched was 3.60. Hopefully, that reflects that he is settling in at the higher level of competition.
If you look at his stats for each level he has an adjustment period. The first year at the new level isn’t all that great, but then he’s able settle in the next year and produce some solid numbers. The problem is the Astros would need to be patient with him and let him take his lumps and allow him to adjust to the competition. The good news is that he’s been throwing a 150+ innings since 2007 so building up his innings isn’t an issue.
I know he’s old and doesn’t strike out a lot of people, BUT he doesn’t walk a lot of people either. Before he was moved up to AAA he was dialing up a 5.30 K/BB ratio, I don’t think it’ll stay that high, but I don’t think a 3-4 K/BB ratio at the major league level is out of the realm of possibility. for comparison Roy has a 3.58 K/BB at the Majors Wandy a 2.32 K/BB with a 3.02 in his most recent season.
Regardless of your position on his value, he’s a nice piece to have with a rotation that includes the young Norris and Paulino.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I do realize
that Polin Trinidad wouldn’t be enough as the Brewers probably aren’t as high on him and as I am as well as the whole in the same division thing. My point is the highest prospect I’d be willing give up for Hardy is a Polin Trinidad plus another nice position prospect, anyone rated higher is a deal breaker for me. Hardy to me is just an avg hitter that provides very good defense.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 23, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, Trinidad definitely wouldn’t be enough. I doubt even guys like Bazardo, Wright, etc would be. The Brewers GM will ask for Bud Norris or Felipe Paulino, or try to put together a bigger trade to get Wandy.
A counter-offer that would have a chance would be something like Chia Jen-Lo plus a couple aforementioned borderline guys.
The whole in the division thing will probably put the nix on the deal, but you’re right that it needs to be for starting pitching that can contribute. How that balances out can be debated to death, but an “efficient control” pitcher who has to go to Nashville doesn’t help them much. I’d say its pretty close to 100 percent likelihood that Hardy will be traded for something, but if it were a choice between leaving him in AAA as emergency backup or deadline chip and an okay prospect to fill out AAA, they’ll leave Hardy in AAA.
Here's another totally random thought.
Wandy Rodriguez for Ryan Zimmerman?
Pluses:
-Zimmerman is much younger than Wandy and could be more valuable to the organization in the long term
-Huge offensive and defensive upgrade at 3B; left side of the infield goes from being a weakness to a strength
Problems:
-Starting rotation becomes a big issue, requiring a top FA like Lackey or Wolf, and gambling that Norris and Paulino will break out
-Wandy probably isn’t enough to get Zimmerman, so prospects would need to be added to the deal
I just don’t see the Nats trading Zimmerman. Maybe if the Nats questioned whether they could keep him past his team control years, they might consider it, but I haven’t heard anything like that. The Nats consider Zimmerman to be their "franchise player,’ or maybe “face of the franchise” is a better term.
No chance
You are asking for on of the premier 3B in the MLB for Wandy..
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Wandy has been one of the premier left-handed pitchers in baseball recently, so he should be able to bring a premier player in return. Zimmerman is younger and has been more consistent than Wandy over their respective 5 years in baseball, so Wandy’s value might fall a little short there, but a trade with Wandy and Zimmerman as the centerpieces wouldn’t exactly be lopsided. Anyway, it’s unlikely that Wandy gets traded…He was the best pitcher on the team last year, and our rotation would be lost without him. There should be easier ways to fill the hole at 3B.
I didn't realize Zimmerman had signed an extension
I was just going off of service time from BRef…didn’t think to check Cot’s.
That changes the calculus.
But it doesn’t change the point that one shouldn’t underestimate Wandy’s trade value. Good pitching is worth a pretty penny.
Wandy has OK trade value. Probably more value than Oswalt.
The problem is that his short track record of success and his age will be held against him. Knowing that he is an impending FA after the 2010 season will hurt his value significantly because of his lack of being a proven commodity.
Teams are going to be less willing to trade for and then lock up a guy like Wandy for the fear of making a colossal mistake if he implodes.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Plus, note what I said in the original post:
“-Wandy probably isn’t enough to get Zimmerman, so prospects would need to be added to the deal”
I agree that Wandy wouldn’t be quite enough (assuming the Nationals were willing to part with Zimmerman at all; they might not be like clack mentioned). But he’d by far be the centerpiece of any deal.
that is not really a fair point
with the state of the Astros minor league system. Without a true MLB ready impact prospect plus several other nice prospects to go with him, there is very little chance the Nats would trade a guy that is signed through 2013 on a deal centered around a 30 year old pitcher in his last year of arbitration.
Just look at WAR from last year. Wandy had an excellent 4.0, Zimmerman a 7.1. Zimmerman has already had 3 season of higher production value than Wandy’s best season.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
why not go with manzella at shortstop and sign beltre at third, he has power and great defense, yes he might be on the expensive side but id much rather pay a little more and keep the prospects youd have to part with for drew or hardy
PS if the astros were willing to spend the money to sign lackey and beltre they’d have a legitimate shot at winning a world series next year
but i really dont see any scenario where that happens
Beltre batted .265/.304/.379 this season… he was a good defender but his offense was worse than Blum. He’s might be a bounceback candidate, but I wouldn’t count on him getting back to his 2008 numbers, which were pretty average anyway. I doubt he’d be too expensive though. His biggest draw is his defense, and defense comes cheap, especially at third base.
I like Beltre.
He is a decent to good hitter, who is excellent on the defensive side. But I’m afraid he might be too pricey for the Astros. I saw an intereting piece at Fangraphs on Beltre thesis was that Beltre isn’t that much different a hitter than what he showed at LAD==the difference is Safeco killed his power. The article compared home and away stats…he has pretty good sized splits in favor of road stadium. It concluded that his HR power is to LF and L-CF, but Safeco takes that away. The article suggested he might become an offensive force (more like his road numbers) if he was signed by a team with a normal LF. Of course, MMP is tailor made for players with LF power.
Interesting points.
I really don’t think he’s going to be too expensive though after a sub-.700 OPS season at third base. Maybe that would indeed make him a good signing.
To demonstrate what I mean about Beltre not getting a big contract, take a look at Adam Everett. He got a $1 million contract from the Tigers after being one of the best defensive players in the game for five years.
Sure, his bat remained even worse than Beltre’s in 2009, but he also plays a position that demands less offense.
Beltre will get more money because he has demonstrated power in the past, and as you’ve pointed out, there will be the perception that he’ll hit better in a different park. But I still don’t see him earning more than $5-6MM. Kind of silly, because even in 2009 his defense made him about as valuable as Miguel Tejada, but Miggy is likely to earn at least a few million more in free agency.
Nobody values defense anywhere close to its actual worth.
Jason Bartlett
The Rays have an insanely deep infield and this offseason it’s likely that they’ll try to free up some roster space by moving some guys. In addition to Iwamura, who we talked about moving from 2B to 3B in a different post, we might take a look at SS Jason Bartlett. It’s unlikely to happen, but it’s worth taking a look at.
Why the Astros would want him:
- Last year he hit .320/.398/.490
- He’s an excellent baserunner. Using BPro’s Equivalent Baserunning statistic, Bartlett leads the Rays with a 5.1 EqBRR. For comparison’s sake, that’s better than Carl Crawford’s 4.3 EqBRR (but less than Bourn’s 15.0 EqBRR)
- He’ll be 30 years old in a week or so, which is younger than Miguel Tejada
- We could hold on to him for a few years, and we need to nail down the infield with more than just a one-year free agent rental.
Why the Rays might trade him:
- That .320/.398/.490 line was a career year for him. His line from the 1500+ AB he got in 2004-2008 was .276/.337/.362. In 2009, he hit 14 home runs than he had in all of 2004-2008. If this improvement is just an illusion, then the Rays would be selling high.
- Their infield is deep, and from all the talk I’ve seen over at DRaysBay, Reid Brignac looks to be the Rays’ SS of the future, and he’s ready to play at the Major League level.
- Oh, and Bartlett’s career year happened just before his second year of arbitration. He’s going to cost more than the $2 mil he made this year, and the Rays may need the money to spend elsewhere.
- Bartlett’s defense has been in a steady decline, basically since he started playing. His UZR/150 at SS from 2005 onward: 28.5, 16.1, 9.0, 2.9, -6.2. I can’t really speak to the reason for this decline, but a quick glance at the numbers suggests that it’s a decline in range, not in arm-strength. This would suggest a potential move to 3B, which is an area of need for Houston and a well-filled position for Tampa Bay (Longoria).
Potential trade bait: the Rays have room for improvement at both catcher and in their bullpen. The Rays would probably ask for Castro as the centerpiece, which I personally wouldn’t do, and I don’t think the Houston front office would do. However, a package that starts with Felipe Paulino and J.R. Towles might be in order. Another team can probably give up a better catcher/reliever combo, though, so it’d be an unlikely trade. With both Paulino and Towles, you’d basically be dreaming on potential and regression to the mean…Paulino’s HR/FB is likely to decrease next year, and Towles (if he got regular AB) would be likely to have a much better BABIP. I am really bad at gauging trade value, so take this entire paragraph with a grain of salt.
I’m itching for Hot Stove Season already, and I’m looking forward to seeing what the Astros do with their infield dearth and what the Rays do with their infield surplus.
I’m definitely not sold on Bartlett’s offense. Over his career, Bartlett’s primary calling card has been defense. I’m surprised he has declined to negative UZR; perhaps that is an aberration or perhaps it is just the effect of age. I might consider Bartlett if he were a free agent, but I don’t think he is worth anywhere close to those minor leaguers. I wouldn’t give up Paulino, alone, for him, much less in a package. Bartlett reminds me of a Jack Wilson type player, but the question remains whether his defense at shortstop can return to a high level (which Wilson has been able to maintain). If the front office think it can, perhaps he is worth a Towles trade (particularly if the Astros are giving up on Towles). But I’m not inclined to think that Bartlett’s offense will be adequate at 3d base.
3B possibilities...I'm not sure if this is the thread where this belongs, but
I just realized today that if the Angels lock up Chone Figgins and keep him off the free agent market, it may be possible to trade for Brandon Wood…a minor league 3B/SS powerhouse. It looks like some of the top-prospect shine has come off of him since he hasn’t done much at the major league level since he made his first appearance in 2007…but he also has fewer than 250 ML plate appearances, and hasn’t had much opportunity for regular playing time.
Wood would be pretty expensive to get.
by Timothy De Block on Oct 29, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Expensive, yes. But there are some things mitigating his value. He’s out of options now, and there’s no way he’d clear waivers if they try to send him back to AAA, so the Angels will have to keep him on the pro roster or trade him.
Keep in mind that this is all contingent on the Angels re-signing Figgins, which most threads I’ve read suggest is highly unlikely (they’d rather spend the money trying to keep John Lackey, and I don’t blame them).
Pretty good idea
He’s young and still has some potential, he has excellent slugging in the minors but poor in the majors probably because of the lack of consistent at bats. The last rotowire report on him, although its from may, is that even if chone figgins isn’t brought back the angels could have an eye on adrian beltre and wood is nothing more than possible trade bait. Since that is a very old report i don’t take much stock in it but it doesn’t give a little insight on the angels feelings about wood and that is he is tradeable.
Bad part is we don’t really know what the angels will want in return. They have a pretty good farm system with good pitching prospects that performed well in AA and lower. Their AAA pitching wasn’t very good though. Our best trade bait is mostly with OF and JR Towles. They have some good OF propsects and Hank Conger who performed well at AA this year coming up as their future catcher. So i don’t know if they’ll have anything at what we can offer, unless they want lower level guys.
When I see the differences between Wood’s ML performance and his AAA numbers, I sometimes wonder if he is as good as advertised. Sometimes you wish that these Angels and Dodgers prospects didn’t play at such high elevation AAA locations—-it would make the prospect stats look more reliable.(I think of a highly touted 3d base prospect from the Dodgers, Andy LaRoche, who hasn’t exactly panned out yet.) Wood’s AAA stats are for Salt Lake City which has a HR park factor almost the same as Lancaster (1.16 for Salt Lake and 1.17 for Lancaster). For some reason, Wood’s MLE (minorleaguesplits.com) for OPS is only .710 for 09, even though his actual AAA OPS is about 200 points higher. I’m not sure what factors cause that big a gap. I would be reluctant to give up too much for Wood.
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