R.J. Anderson at Fangraphs looks at Paulino's HR rate and future potential. I wrote an article a week or so ago in which I concluded that Paulino is liikely to improve his performance next season, pointing out that his HR/flyball rate probably is unlucky, which is corroborated by the number of "just enough" and "lucky" HRs measured at hit tracker. Anderson seems to agree: "As we know starting pitchers regress to a home run rate around 11%, and there is no indication to believe Paulino will be a consistent outlier. He’s given up 20 home runs in 92 innings this year and 28 in 386 minor league innings. Factor in Paulino’s sub-75% contact rate and it’s clear something in his arsenal generates whiffs."