Bolstering the Astros Infield - Pt. 2: Second to Third
In the second installment of this series, I'd like to talk about a few players who can play both second and third base, and who would likely move to third if the Astros acquired them. I do think a move like this might actually be the most likely one for the Astros to make, especially if they wind up signing somebody to a multi-year deal; that way, whoever they acquire could potentially move to second base after Kazuo Matsui departs at the end of next season. The infield looks to remain a quandary for the Astros for multiple seasons, since most of the offensive depth in the organization is found in the outfield. That makes versatility an important commodity.
Another thing to consider is that there is a strong likelihood Tommy Manzella will be next season's starting shortstop. As I mentioned in comments last time around, I don't personally consider him penciled in for the role, but he does have the inside track. That means the infield will be taking a major offensive hit with the departure of Miguel Tejada. As such, I think it's important that whoever the Astros acquire for third base at least match Tejada's offensive performance. Tejada's slash line in 2009 was .313/.340/.455. According to FanGraphs, his wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) was .344. Can the Astros really match that performance with a second-turned-third baseman?
1. Dan Uggla. Between strife with Hanley Ramirez and impending arbitration, there is a good chance that the small-market Marlins will be looking to trade Uggla this off-season. Uggla was a valuable player in 2009, batting .243/.354/.459. His low batting average was due to plain and simple bad luck. Uggla's line drive rate actually increased over last year, while his BABIP dropped by over 40 points. Expect his slugging and on-base percentage to go up next season, whoever he plays with. As a defender, he was fairly bad this season at second base according to UZR, but he was better the year before, and it's hard to say how he'd perform at third base. The biggest problem with acquiring Uggla is the cost; what will the Marlins want for him? His low batting average will drive down his trade value a little, but the Astros may still have a hard time finding any prospects they can afford to give up to get him, especially if they wind up in a bidding war with other clubs. Still, the 29-year old Uggla would be a great candidate for a multi-year extension if we did acquire him, with the potential to handle third base duties at a decent cost for some time to come.
2. Akinori Iwamura. With the dazzling emergence of Ben Zobrist, the Rays will almost certainly let Iwamura depart this off-season. His natural position is third base, and he knows how to take a walk, having batted .290/.355/.390/ in 2009. His wOBA was .338. These numbers are right in line with his career averages, and at the age of 30, he's not yet old enough that you would expect a decline in performance. According to UZR, his defense has been average at both second and third base, albeit in a fairly small sample size. Overall, "average" is about the right word for Iwamura. He doesn't hit for power, but he'd be a good on-base guy to bat after Bourn, and he has the versatility to remain a useful player throughout a multi-year contract. One downside is that he didn't split well against RHP in 2009, but the sample size was relatively small, and he split pretty evenly in 2008 (when he played full-time). Overall, he's not the kind of acquisition you'd get excited about, but he wouldn't be a bad pickup, either--for the right price.
3. Mark DeRosa. With his injury problems and coming off a down year, DeRosa is a little bit of a question mark. He only batted .250/.319/.433 in 2009, below his career average, but in 2008 he was far better, batting .285/.376/.481. The big questions about DeRosa are how much his health affected his play, and whether he can get healthy for next season. Picking him up would be a risk, but one with high potential rewards, because at his peak, he's actually a better hitter than Tejada. Still, he wouldn't be a good candidate for more than a one-year deal at around $5 million, and would be a stopgap, not a long-term piece.
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As you can probably tell, I picked three players to look at with an eye for patience at the plate and (at least strong potential for) above average on-base percentage. The Astros tried an offense focused on free-swingers who put the ball in play, most notably with Miguel Tejada. It didn't work. Perhaps it's time for a 2-hole hitter who enables Michael Bourn's running game, then gets on base for Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee.
Any other suggestions for second-turned-third basemen? Fire away.
Next time, I'll look at a few off-the-wall suggestions which Ed Wade probably won't bring to pass, but which nevertheless might not be bad moves.
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24 comments
Comments
I like the Iwamura idea
There would be something poetic about it. A year after losing a roughly average third baseman because we couldn’t foot the bill, we’d pick up a roughly average third baseman from another team who didn’t keep him because he cost too much.
Furthermore, it would go a long way toward cementing the Tampa Bay → Houston → Baltimore 3B pipeline….Huff, Wiggy, Iwamura…
by AstroAndy on Oct 18, 2009 8:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
For the pipeline's sake alone
Iwamura has to come.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Oct 18, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have given some thought to the Uggla idea, myself. The main downside is that I think the Marlins will ask for good prospects to acquire him, and he isn’t THAT cheap, financially. He received $5.35 million in his first year of arbitration; and I would expect his salary to increase in his second year of arbiration (maybe $6 millions), and I’m not sure that is very much less than the kind of salary Tejada probably will have to settle for. Add to that Uggla’s reputation as a brutally bad 2d base defender, and I have to wonder if he can really handle 3d base at a minimal defensive level. Part of that depends on his arm strength, which I don’t know much about. The Marlins have never used Uggla as a 3d baseman, but he does have some experience as a 3d baseman in the lower minor league levels. Was he shifted to 2d because his arm wasn’t well suited for 3d base? I don’t know. Despite those reservations, I am intrigued by Uggla, mostly because he has such good power potential.
As for other suggestions of 2d basemen who can play 3d base—-I would point to Felipe Lopez. Lopez had a nice offensive year between the D-Backs and Brewers. He is patient, takes walks, and (something which is embedded in my memory) he was a killer versus the Astros this year. Watching him batting against the Astros, he was frustrating in his patient approach, ability to draw walks, and clutch hitting.
by clack on Oct 18, 2009 9:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
More on Felipe Lopez...
His .356 wOBA and .810 OPS last year compares favorably to Tejada. However, Lopez could be due for some regression, since last year was close to a career year for him. But even with some regression, his offense would be an improvement at 3d base. Lopez had a poor defensive reputation at shortstop (backed up by his UZR results), but he isn’t bad at 2d base. While 95 games at third base isn’t a large enough sample to make definite conclusions, Lopez’s best career UZR results are at 3d base (+6). Maybe if Acta were to become manager, he would be interested in Lopez (who was traded to the Nationals in 2006).
by clack on Oct 18, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dan Uggla should be a much better hitter than Tejada next year and down the road. Looking at his BABIP, his wOBA should fall somewhere between his .354 mark this season and his .372 mark in 2008—so basically, around 20 points higher than Tejada.
Also, Uggla is young, and Tejada may be in his last years. It’s possible we could extend him for a backloaded $35MM over 5 years or something like that and get a good deal in 2010-12 while Carlos Lee is eating up the payroll. One other advantage—we wouldn’t have to give up any second round draft picks, so while we’d lose prospects trading for him, it might not be as big of a loss as it looks at first glance.
But yeah, his defense is worrying. I think his offensive production could make up for it though.
I like the idea of Felipe Lopez too by the way, but I was under the impression that he was pretty entrenched at second base. Would he be willing to move? Also, he might be too expensive.
by OremLK on Oct 18, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, should have clarified—with Uggla, we wouldn’t have to give up any picks like we would signing a type A free agent like Lopez. With Tejada, we could potentially offer arbitration and get picks, so not getting them is a loss in another way.
by OremLK on Oct 18, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but suppose the Marlins ask for a prospect out of the Lexington starting rotation in return? The Marlins are all about getting prospects in trade. And their farm system is good enough that they won’t accept crap prospects. Maybe they would accept a prospect like Lo and someone else. But I would view that as worse than giving up a 2d round pick.
by clack on Oct 18, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s my understanding the Astros can sign a Type A free agent this offseason without giving up any draft picks. The top 15 picks are protected.
by jmike on Oct 19, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teams in the bottom 15 have their first round pick protected, but they still have to give up a second round pick if they sign a type A free agent.
by OremLK on Oct 19, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know why Lopez wouldn’t consider a starting job at 3d base. The last team to use him at 3d base were the Cardinals in 2008 (I think LaRussa used him in a rotation between 3d, LF, and 2d base…that something LaRussa loves to do). He has played a fair amount of 3d base, and apparently came up with the Blue Jays as a 3d baseman.
I think teams have tried to maximize Lopez’s positional value. Thus he started off as a shortstop, where he would have been a star if he had enough range for that position. Up until this year, Lopez’s offense looked to be better suited for 2d base than 3d base. Of course, we’re talking about teams which are unlike the Astros because they expect a .800+ OPS out of 3d base.
by clack on Oct 18, 2009 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as it’s not Lyles or Seaton I don’t think it would be too bad to give up a Lexington starter plus Lo. I can see our pitching still having plenty of depth after the loss, but we have nothing coming in the infield. It would be a huge plus to be able to lock in a .800-900 OPS third baseman for the next 3-5 years at under $8MM a year, even if his defense isn’t so great.
I guess my other question is still, what is Lopez going to cost, being a top free agent? We’re talking about a 4.6 WAR player this year. He won’t get paid nearly that much, but he will probably want a multi-year deal and it wouldn’t be excessive for him to demand over $10 million a year. Would it really be a good idea to get into another contract like that?
by OremLK on Oct 18, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m guessing Lopez is in the $6 million or so cost, but who really knows. I don’t think Tejada will get a contract close to $10 million this year, and I could be wrong about that too. Lopez’s current salary is $3.5 million. I can agree with this statement from the Fangraphs article on Lopez’s season:
No GM should be silly enough to pay Lopez like a five-win player, but it’ll be interesting just how much some weigh 2009 over 2007 and 2008.
by clack on Oct 18, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well if he is $6 million or even maybe $8 million, sure, he would be a fantastic pickup.
by OremLK on Oct 18, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve mentioned Eric Hinske before, but I think he could be a good value pickup for the Astros. He has a career OPS of 774 and can play third, first, and outfield. Don’t know much about his defense, but expect it’s below average. I think he could be a good platoon partner for Johnson/Keppinger at third. And at the very least give the Astros some pop off the bench.
by jmike on Oct 19, 2009 11:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hinske has the reputation as a poor 3d base defender. He really hasn’t been used much at 3d base since 2004, and his UZR is -17 over 03 and 04. He has been used so sparingly at 3d base since that time, UZR can’t provide us much information about the current state of his 3d base defense. He would be a better back up for 1st base then the Astros had last year. Hinske has played a fair amount of LF over his career, and his UZR isn’t too bad at that position. As a lefthanded bat, he could be a replacement for Erstad.
by clack on Oct 19, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i like the idea of trying to add uggla, but i would try to take advantage of him having somewhat of a down year, and not being quite a hot commodity and the fact that the marlins dont want to pay him, basically try to get him for deal of prospects that no one would really fret over losing here; maybe similar to the kazmir deal
say towles, trinidad, and yordany ramirez? id call and see if that got it done, also be willing to shell out someone like wesley or arias to get it done, i would not give up anyone from the 08 draft class, let those guys grow and replenish our farm
also some under the radar third basemen names to consider
garrett atkins, i know he had a down year but he has a potential power bat and minute maid suits him well
joe crede (if he is able to come back healthy) would be an absolute steal if we get the player he was before his injury
try bobby crosby at third? he has potential, just needs to figure some things back out, a change of scenery might do wonders
thinking somewhat out of the box we could also try towles at third, or maybe take a chance on converting a free agent to play third, maybe someone like ankeil or nady? those are the only two guys that really jump out that might be able to make the transition from the outfield and be worth acquiring, you never know though
there arent any options that are going to be bullet proof with the money we are looking to spend, and i for one hope they prioritize starting pitching above everything else this winter
by strosfan31 on Oct 20, 2009 1:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Looks like the Rays are close to a deal trading Iwamura away. And it’s not to the Dodgers or the Cubs, as had been speculated previously. Maybe it’s us? (fingers crossed)
by AstroAndy on Nov 3, 2009 1:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
interesting. doubt it’s Astros, but I’m glad to hear it’s not the Cubs.
by clack on Nov 3, 2009 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Given that the Twins outrighted an underperforming 3B today, bringing their roster to 39-men, the smart money is on Minnesota.
by AstroAndy on Nov 3, 2009 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura to the Pirates today, supposedly.
by AstroAndy on Nov 3, 2009 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, plenty of other options. Iwamura was a good one, but you can probably expect Wade and co. to undervalue OBP, so this is not surprising.
by OremLK on Nov 3, 2009 4:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
amazing to think that he will be the Pirates’ highest paid player.
by clack on Nov 3, 2009 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hadn’t known teams could trade before the world series was over, I guess it makes sense if it’s between two teams not in the world series or they have the deal in place when trading opens again.
by timmy_ on Nov 4, 2009 7:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, maybe they just have the deal in place, but not formalized until after the WS. But I think the Rays had to get it in place so that they could exercise the option on his contract without the risk that they are stuck with him.
by clack on Nov 4, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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