Bolstering the Astros Infield - Pt. 1: Under the Radar
by OremLK on Oct 16, 2009 2:28 PM CDT
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PrintIn preparation for the winter, I'm going to start a brief series about infielders the Astros could potentially acquire to bolster the lacking infield. Third base and shortstop are completely up in the air, especially the former. And since Kazuo Matsui can also play shortstop, it wouldn't be out of the question to move him there and acquire a second baseman.
In other words, all three positions are open to discussion.
In each installment, I will discuss three players. Please throw out any names you can think of, however. This time, I'd like to discuss three players who won't likely be big targets this off-season, yet might be valuable additions nonetheless. I've mentioned two of them before, but let's take a more in-depth look and bring one more to the foreground.
1. Adam Kennedy. I've mentioned Kennedy before, and I still think he would be a reasonable option. His 2009 slash line was .289/.348/.410. His BABIP was slightly above his career average, at .329. His numbers were decent in '09, and worse in '08, but the key to this pickup would be his favorable splits against RHP. He's always hit much better against right-handers, which makes him one of several good candidates (some of whom, like Russell Branyan, I will discuss in future posts) to platoon with Jeff Keppinger, who is very strong against LHP.
2. Luis Rodriguez. A great buy-low free agent pickup, Rodriguez is not the type of player you'd like to buy and pencil in at third base, but his stats are nonetheless impressive... Except, of course, for his batting average and slugging percentage.
You see, Rodriguez hit for a .202/.319/.260 line in 251 plate appearances this season. So why would I be interested in him? Here's why. He walked 15.1% of the time in 2009, while only striking out 11.1%. How did his batting average (and consequently slugging percentage) get so low, then? His BABIP was a wretched .219. Does this mean he was only making weak contact? Apparently not--his line drive percentage was a shocking 18.3%. No, poor Luis was just plain unlucky. Rodriguez can also play all the positions in the infield, by the way. In his minor league career, his slash line was .311/.383/.413. So overall, I mark him as being an inexpensive, useful bench player at worst, and a starting second or third baseman at best. By the way, he also splits well against RHP. Go figure. And yes, I do have a bit of a soft spot for quad-A players, especially when they're this useful for what should be a near MLB-minimum salary.
3. Kevin Russo. I've mentioned him before, but I still think him a great trade candidate. Russo is a 24-year old AAA utility infielder in the Yankees system. My interest in him is that he batted .326/.397/.431 in 2009 with a 10.6% walk rate and a 15.6% strikeout rate. His BABIP was a little high, at .375, so those numbers are probably a little inflated. However, his BABIP was .359 in 2008 (when he batted .306/.363/.416 at AA), so his gaudy on-base percentage may not be particularly outrageous, especially if he can continue to lower his strikeouts. He probably will never have great power, but his skill with the bat, healthy BB%, and ability to play multiple positions should make up for that.
The trouble, of course, is that he's fully under the Yankees' control. Fortunately, they have no need for him, having their infield locked in for years to come. Still, he'd be a useful bench player and remains a solid prospect, so don't expect the Yankees to part with him easily. Perhaps Chia Jen-Lo would be a tempting central piece to the Yankees--he's projected as a good bullpen arm, possibly a setup guy or a closer down the road.
*
Next time, I'll talk about some higher-profile targets: Second basemen who could continue in their role or convert to third base.
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2 questions
Can Kaz really play SS?
Who is the Yankee SS of the future? Jeter is getting long in the tooth and even if he hangs on a few years, its nice to have a replacement parked in AAA. Seems like the Yanks expect a treasure for anything from their system, but want players from others for scraps.
Can Kaz really play SS?
Who knows? He hasn’t played a substantial amount of time at shortstop since 2004 in NYC. With Jose Reyes coming up, Kaz was moved to 2d base where he has stayed.
My guess is that Matsui would be a poor fielder at shortstop. In his stint at shortstop in 2004, Kaz had a poor UZR rating (-19) and committed 23 errors.
Yeah, I guess we don’t really know for sure about Kaz. But, watching him at 2B, I would say he has better range than Tejada, at least. His arm is the bigger question mark, to my mind. His natural position was shortstop in Japan though, wasn’t it?
As for the Yankee shortstop of the future, I don’t know who it is, but I don’t think it’s Russo. If they were grooming him for it I would think they’d be playing him at SS at AAA, instead he has spent most of his time at second base.
He is the best shortstop in all of Japan
OF ALL TIME!
by entropic soul on Oct 16, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Throwing out a name
Chris Shelton should be a minor league free agent now. Some of you may be thinking “wait, I thought Shelton was a first baseman”. And up until 2009, you’d have been right. But this season, he put in the vast majority of his games in Tacoma at the hot corner. Whether his defense there is acceptable is an open question (and a .902 fielding percentage sounds like it goes a long way toward answering it).
But he played in the same PCL as Chris Johnson and here are their slash stats for 2009:
Shelton: .314/.396/.504
Johnson: .287/.323/.461
Shelton hit well for both power and OBP throughout his career in the minors. He’s experienced various levels of success in the majors, achieving the best results with regular playing time in Detroit. He’s strikeout prone, so his average is very much dependent on his BABIP, but even when striking out in a third of his at-bats, he still manages to get on base at a good enough clip to rank among the best on the Astros squad.
So basically it comes down to whether you think he can glove it out on the left side of the infield and whether you’re willing to give him consistent at-bats and not freak out at a high k-rate (so long as the OBP is still there). A lot of "if"s there, but we are talking under-the-radar, here.
Sounds like a good pickup. If the Astros aren’t looking to spend a decent amount of money on a third baseman (big if), it seems like letting some of these types of guys and Johnson compete for the spot might be a better option than bringing back Geoff Blum. At least then you have some (relative) youth and upside. I still don’t get why Wade went with a 36 year old guy he knew was going to give him around .310 OBP and less than .700 OPS. It’s not like it’s even remotely difficult to find younger and healther guys with that kind of ability. But, what’s past is past, I just hope he doesn’t make the same mistake again.
On Blum, I think his defense at 3d base is his biggest positive. Historically, his UZR at 3d base is good, which is consistent what I see. Blum has a reputation as a clutch hitter, and old style baseball people like Wade pay more attention to that. (Surprisingly Blum’s OPS with RISP and RISP w/2out is significantly better than his normal OPS over his career, which is a pretty decent sample size.) If the Astros could acquire a starting 3d baseman I wouldn’t mind keeping Blum as a utility player/pinch hitter.
Andy, I didn’t realize Shleton was playing 3d base now…that’s an interesting idea. Shelton has (or at least used to have) a ton of power.
after a bit of googling, we get this quote from Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu:
“I wouldn’t consider him there unless it’s an emergency. His true position is first base. Because of the strength of first base down there, he’s had to play a lot of third. But that’s not his natural position.”
There’s still Adam Heether, who’s better and more flexible defensively. He put up numbers similar to Shelton in the PCL this year: .296/.396/.506.
Even though all that’s true, Blum is still 36, and has still been consistently below average throughout his career, even with the positives weighed in. It’s not like the Astros failed to meet expectations—anyone could have told you 2009 would wind up pretty much like it did. Why play it safe and go for reliable mediocrity when your offense is already bad?
I agree that Heether still seems like an interesting option. The question is what would it take to get him? It’d be hard to trade for an older minor leaguer if you have to give up anybody with value in exchange.
Oh, I just read Heether is going to be a free agent now. Excellent. Somebody get Ed Wade on the phone and tell him to get a pen for some names.
The Astros should be familiar with Heether. He plays in the PCL and the Express coaches should know about him. Plus, Bobby Heck should be familiar with him, given his background with Milwaukee.
Could be Heck drafted him
probably not, but he’s surely familiar. I wonder when he actually becomes a FA. I’d guess he gets invited to brewers ST. The role he would fill would be the one Counsell has had and Counsell wants to come back and will work cheap and had a nice year. Veterans seem to do much better in those part time roles and even if its not true, Melvin thinks that way.
Bryan Frichter - Independent Ball
Here‘s an article from Baseball America on him. He also got an honorable mention in BA’s article on top indy leaguers of 2009, and one of the few sluggers to make the list. After some digging around the internet, it looks like he led the 2009 United League in batting average (.385) and earned the league MVP award. He also led his team in hits (100) and steals (29), and had 8 homers and 5 triples, all in only 65 games. Hard to get any additional stats though.
Not that an indy-leaguer would really have a shot at making the major league roster…most likely, if he stuck in affiliated ball, he’d be an organizational player. But it’s not like the farm system is teeming with world-beating 3B prospects. Here are the guys who got the most games at 3B in the mid-levels of the Astros minor leagues and their slash stats:
AA – Jhon Florentino (Age:25) – .266/.318/.371
Hi-A – David Flores (Age: 22) – .242/.288/.371
A – Ebert Rosario (Age: 22) – .272/.307/.372
Maybe we can give the long-shot a chance
I wonder what his age is? Maybe I missed it, but I didn’t see his age mentioned in the BA article. That would make a big difference as to how an organization would look at him. He certainly has some appealing points. The BA article says his batting average was over .400 in the Indy League. And, probably even more encouraging, are the comments that his defense at 3d base is major league ready, and that runners look like “they are running in water” when matched up with his throws from 3d base. Normally you would expect that a 3d base conversion player in the Indy league would have poor defense, but it may not be the case here.
manzella will be the starting ss next year for sure, its pretty much already a done deal; the astros are exploring ways to get rid of kaz not trying to find a new position for them
i think the stros should look at picking up garrett atkins from the rockies for cheap after having a down year this past year, he has the potential to provide more pop than a lot of the other guys we will be looking at
at second id like to see the stros platoon kepp and maysonet and get rid of kaz
and in looking at the minor league free agents, it might be interesting to see if you can convert a guy like jeff salazar from the outfield to 3rd or 2cd
Yeah, um, I haven’t heard anything about trying to get rid of Kaz. Even if they tried I doubt anybody would take him. In fact I was in a live chat with Ed Wade recently and he said pretty definitively that Matsui will be starting for the Astros in 2010.
Also, Manzella is far from penciled in at shortstop, though there is a fair chance he will wind up in the role. If he does, though, they better find a pretty big bat at third base to make up for the offensive deficiencies up the middle.
Richard Justice made some comment earlier that the Astros would look into selling Matsui’s contract to a Japanese team, even though I never saw any indication that it was more than a Justice idea. I don’t think it’s feasible. And I recall the chat comment by Wade, which was definite about Matsui playing 2d base next year.
I think Manzella probably is the favorite to be the shortstop next year. But it’s no guarantee. Suppose Manzella hits .150 in spring training, do you think that they go into the season with Manzella as the starter? I doubt it.
I think I’ve been a little more down on Manzella than he deserves lately. So… sorry Tommy. I was in part thinking about his iffy 2008 numbers—but his BABIP that year was low for his speed, and I found when adjusted for park and luck on MinorLeagueSplits that they were surprisingly similar to 2009 (.328 OBP/.396 SLG).
I think it’s feasible that given time to adjust to MLB pitching he could get back up to his AAA numbers within a couple of years of big league development. That would be .338 wOBA/.760 OPS by the way.
Manzella has shown a tendency to hit poorly in his first year moving up to a higher level. That would lead me to think that he might hit poorly next season in the majors. I hate to be negative, but if he gets off to a very poor offensive start in the first couple of months, there will be pressure to either take him out of the starting lineup or send him back to AAA. How the Astros would handle that probably depends on who is manager and whether the team is struggling or not. It would be nice if the Astros had a back up plan…or maybe the back up plan is Maysonet.
the astros are exploring ways to get rid of kaz matsui, thats a lot different than saying the astros have a definitive plan with what to do with matsui
i think you are right that they are going to be stuck with him unless they get extremely creative with a trade idea or are willing to eat the majority of his salary
the astros are exploring ways to get rid of a player who is overpaid, unreliable, and injury prone, i dont know why any of you would be surprised by this, what would be surprising would be if they could find a way to get it done
and is it really that surprising that wade would indicate that kaz would be the starting second basemen next year? not really, because they probably arent going to be able to move him or eat his contract
the big question for me is whether maysonet or kepp can overtake his starting job, especially if he has another injury plagued sub par start
Ed Wade likes Kaz Matsui. That’s why he traded for him in the first place. And, frankly, Matsui’s first year with Houston was better than the Colorado season which got Wade’s attention.
The fact that Kenji Johjima was willing to head back and explore his options in Japan gives me hope that it’s possible. But obviously Kaz is not Kenji, so who knows how he feels on the subject.
Also, Kaz has not been THAT bad. If we’d had an at least average (offensively) 3B and catcher last year, he would have been fine as an 8-hole hitter. His mediocre hitting was highlighted by the struggles of the offense as a whole.
It’s unclear what was involved with the Johima move. Publicly, the Mariners said that no buy out was involved. However, some in the media said that it involved a buyout “satisfactory” to Johima, which I assume was below the table. MLBPA would object to any contract buyout which doesn’t compensate for the full contract amount. I have seen some discussion at BBTF speculating that perhaps the Japanese owners of the Mariners were able to work out some indirect buyout through businesses or conduits in Japan.
Brian Buscher
The Twins outrighted Brian Buscher to AAA today, and he should be a minor league free agent after the World Series.
He’s been bouncing up and down for the last three years, and 2009 wasn’t a very good year for him, so it makes sense that he got cut. If we look past that to his 2007 and 2008 years in AAA, he did quite well.
In 2008, he batted .319/.402/.514 in 214 PA for the Twins’ AAA affiliate and put up a .294/.340/.390 line for the major league squad. He’s 28 and doesn’t have a whole lot of power, so it makes sense that the Twins, a team with 3B issues, would drop him. However, I’m pretty down on Chris Johnson, and I think Buscher would have a better chance of sticking than Johnson would.
Sounds reasonable. You know, to those who think only “prospects” should be given a chance, take a look at the Phillies—Victorino was a rule 5, bouncing from club to club for years, and Werth was originally signed as a young free agent for $850k after not really having done much at the big league level.
You never know, sometimes these things can pay off.
Ryan Ludwick is a really good example of a 4A player coming out of nowhere to be an All Star caliber ML outfielder. I think scouring the market for AAAA players could be another form of moneyball. Jack Cust is sometimes mentioned as an example of Bean’s moneyball tactics, mostly because of his one dimensional offensive profile ….but it can also be looked at as tapping the market inefficiencies associated with the AAAA player.
On that note
here’s a snippet from McTaggart’s article today:
While in Arizona, the Astros are also going over looming roster decisions. Houston must have its 40-man roster set by Nov. 20 to protect players from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Also, the Astros are poring over six-year Minor League free agents. “We’re going to be out there and be aggressive as we can, and it should be a strong group of guys,” Wade said.
Interesting. You know, I find it hard to dispute that strategy, generally speaking. If we’re going to lose next year—and we probably are, barring far more than our fair share of luck—maybe it’s best to test the waters with a bunch of different guys and try to find some players who can help us out at the big league level when we’re ready to compete.
Well, obviously it’s not how the Yankees are constructed (even though I could point out that Cody Ransom, a AAAA player once in the Astros’ organization, started a number of games for the Yankees while A-Rod was out with injury). But, if you aren’t the Yankees and can’t have an all star at every position, these type players can be used to fill one or two positions with above-replacement level performance, thereby saving enough money to fund a good pitcher or a star position player, etc. If you get lucky, you might get a Ludwick performance, and at the least, they can provide platoon performers or bench players.
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