Is the Puma on the decline, or was it just a down year?

An interesting question this off-season is also one that hasn't been talked about much.  Should Lance Berkman be offered a contract extension?  A big gamble, to be certain, and the answer depends much upon how much confidence the front office has in the Big Puma to rebound from this year's performance.

Of course, there's also the possibility that Berkman will be traded.  But let's go ahead and call that unlikely at most.  Probably next-to-impossible.  It seems pretty clear that Lance wants to retire in an Astros uniform, and that Drayton feels the same way.  The question then becomes, when should Lance retire?  His contract could end after next year, though the club has an option for 2011.  Should he really leave the game after just one or two more seasons?

As for his current situation, Lance Berkman will turn 34 just before Spring Training.  His slash line this season was .274/.399/.509.  His BABIP was .300, which is 24 points below his career average; that came with a line drive percentage 2% lower than his career average (1.9% of that went into ground balls).

Let's get one thing straight: .907 OPS is still quite good, even for a first baseman.  Finding that on the free agent market would be both unlikely and expensive.  Finding it within the organization, perhaps even more unlikely.  Mark Teixeira, for example, posted .948 OPS this season (albeit with slightly better defense than Berkman, but in an even friendlier home park).

Another thing that should be mentioned is that 2009 was not Berkman's worst offensive season.  That was 2007, when he hit for .896 OPS, with a similar line drive rate and less walks.  (His fly ball percentage was actually much lower; he was the recipient of a nice share of luck, homering on over 20% of his fly balls.)

The most worrying thing about Berkman's 2009 season was the 20 or so games he missed with a leg injury.  It should be noted, however, that he also missed 27 games in 2005 with a leg problem, so this isn't unprecedented for him.

One thing we do know is that Berkman himself feels bad about this season.  He's said as much.  Part of this is probably due to the still-systematic overt focus on batting average in MLB and sportswriting.  Richard Justice has attacked Berkman's season relentlessly, mostly citing his AVG.

I think he's wrong.  I think he's still a great hitter, and I think he will rebound in 2010 and continue to be a valuable hitter for at least several more years.  As such, I think the Astros should gamble and sign him to an extension.  Here are my reasons.

One, and don't take this the wrong way, but I'd rather the Astros re-sign him after a down year.  It would be better for the team.  Now, I'm not saying Berkman doesn't deserve big money, but if he has a 2008-like rebound year next season, the Astros may wind up significantly over-paying him in an effort to lock him up for the remainder of his career.  According to WAR, he was worth $30.5 million in '08.  He wouldn't get paid that much, but even still--ouch.  If we sign him to an extension this year, we'll be more likely to pay him fairly.

Two, if the Astros negotiate with him now, there is a chance they can try to rework his current contract as part of the negotiations and shift some of the money he's owed to later years.  Which would free up payroll this winter to improve the team.  Lance wants to see the team win as much as anyone, and the best way to do that would be to spend more money bolstering the infield and starting rotation.

Finally, it's a vote of confidence in Berkman.  One that he sorely needs, after all the flak he's taken this year.  It'll shut up the talk about trading him and show him that the front office believes he has what it takes to lead this team's offense.

Because he does.  Of all the Astros' big contracts, Berkman's is the one I'd least like to see gotten rid of.  He's a great guy, but more than that, he's one of the game's greatest first basemen.  I'd like to see him spend his last playing years as an Astro, but more than that, I think that--practically speaking--it's the right move.

What say you?