First game of the Arizona Fall League
by AstroAndy on Oct 14, 2009 5:32 PM CDT
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PrintThe first game of the Arizona Fall League was yesterday. While farmstros or davoag will likely keep you updated on what's happening in the fall/winter leagues in these threadbare months, it's nice to mark the (mostly pleasant) results of the first game as a reminder that there's still plenty of Astros-related action going on outside of the new manager search. Stat lines after the jump.
Hitting:
Jason Castro: 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 strikeout in 4 plate appearances. He also caught one of two attempted base-stealers from behind the dish.
Jon Gaston: 0 hit, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts and a stolen base in 5 plate appearances (batting lead off). He also played heads-up ball and advanced to third on a throwing error by opposing catcher Buster Posey during his stolen base.
Pitching:
Chia-Jen Lo: 2 innings pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 hit-by-pitch. 3 ground outs to 1 fly out.
Danny Meszaros: 1 inning pitched, 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 walks, 1 strikeout. 2 ground outs.
The second game is in progress as I type this, and it looks like Jon Gaston is spending the day whiffing at the plate and Evan Englebrook had a good inning with two strikeouts and a flyout.
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he had 3 in the second game…5 already, while he’s been walked twice which is good, 5 strikeouts in two games is awful,hopefully plate discipline is something he’ll really improve on…Evan Englebrook struck out 2 in 1 IP on only 11 pitches…
Gaston is still young enough that I’m not going to panic about anything yet. Strikeout rate is something that often improves as a hitter gets older.
yes, I think you’re right, in the sense that many very good ML sluggers had equally bad K rates at a similar point in their career. However, I think a reasonable expectation is to hope that his K rate will become high, but tolerable (e.g., 20%), but don’t expect it to fall a lot lower than that. His BB% is pertty good (12% range) which should give a bit of comfort. Gaston’s .321 ISO is incredible, albeit inflated by Lancaster.
T.J. Steele, whom the Astros laud as their best outfield prospect since Cedeno, has a lower K rate (19% range) but his BB% is about 1/3 of Gaston’s. And his ISO is more than 100 points lower. Which is worse (in terms of future prospect status)— Steele’s low BB rate or Gaston’s high K rate? I don’t know the answer…just posing the question.
Well, supposedly Steele is more athletic (potential 30-40 stolen base speed) and generally a great defender, and let’s not forget that power is another thing that often takes time to develop in younger players.
On the flip side, as you mentioned, his BB% is more worrying, meaning that his .385 OBP depended almost entirely on his batting average. His BABIP was worryingly high at .416, which is unsustainable, so his overall OPS would drop considerably with the regression that is bound to come in a different ballpark and with less luck. MinorLeagueSplits.com says .744 OPS adjusted for park and luck, but I think their .315 adjusted BABIP looks too low given Steele’s speed.
If I’m guessing, I’d say around .800 OPS was his true talent level, with potential for development in plate discipline and power. Gaston looks a little better right now, but things may change down the road.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Cincinnati
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Houston
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.11.2012 at 6:01 PM CST)
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