Reflection: Bud Norris and his rookie season

Other than Michael Bourn and Wandy Rodriguez, one of the best under-the-radar stories of the Astros 2009 season was the major league debut of Bud Norris.  It wasn't quite sparkling, marred by a four game slump, but his other six starts showed a lot of promise, especially his 13 shutout innings against the Cardinals.  And even when he was struggling, he showed great composure on the mound, except perhaps in the August 23rd game against Arizona when he only lasted a single inning before being pulled from the game.  Most of the time, though, Bud was rock steady--a great sign from a young pitcher.

Statistically, it's important to keep in mind that the MLB sample size is fairly small, but there are still some numbers of interest to be found.  Overall, he finished with 4.53 ERA ( 4.77 FIP) in 55.2 innings pitched; let's dig into the components of his decent rookie showing.

The worst part of Bud's game is unarguably his walk rate; he walked 4.04 batters per nine innings at the big league level, right in line with his 3.98 rate at Round Rock.  This was ameliorated by his excellent strikeout ratio, almost one per inning, for a 2.16 K/BB ratio (also very close to his 2.11 mark at AAA).

He also didn't go very deep into games--about 5 innings and an out per game on average in starting appearances (although keep in mind that one single-inning start does drag this number down).  This is mostly because of the BB issue mentioned above.  If he could cut down on his pitches outside the zone, he'd be able to make it into the seventh inning more often--he only did it once this season, in his first start against St. Louis.

Two numbers do swing slightly in his favor, though; for one, his BABIP at the big league level was .327, higher than his (more reasonable) mark at AAA by 25 points.  His HR/Fly Ball ratio was also a little high, at 12.9%.  Both of these may partly be due to the small sample size, and I would expect them to smooth out over a longer period.

Perhaps the most promising stat of all is his Contact rate.  It was only 75% overall--this is what generates his big strikeout numbers.  His velocity and hard biting slider are great at missing bats.

I'd be remiss not to discuss how he doesn't change speeds very well, however.  This is something that may hurt him more as hitters get more looks at him; everything he throws is fastball velocity, ranging from his 86.9MPH changeup to his 94MPH fastball.  That his changeup isn't really a quality pitch is probably why he doesn't use it very much (only 7.1% of the time).  He does, however, use his good 87.7MPH slider much more frequently, and it's possible that it will be adequate to set up his fastball (and vice versa).  I'd feel much better if he could either develop another off-speed pitch or increase the speed differential between his changeup and his fastball, though.

One way to do this would simply be to continue improving his fastball.  Bud is only 24, and has demonstrated the ability to reach as high as 99MPH on his four-seamer.  He takes some velocity off of the pitch to make sure he can locate it.  In fact, he may nibble a little too much, which also may be one component of his walk rate; simply trusting his good stuff might help quite a bit.  Regardless, if he can improve his control and reach 95-96 MPH on his fastball consistently, the speed differential between it and his changeup would likewise improve.

Alternatively, he could try to throttle the changeup back a little.  Even better, he could try to develop another off-speed pitch, but that may be difficult if he plans to rest and work on conditioning this off-season instead of playing winter ball.

Even with some control problems and a little difficulty changing speeds, Bud Norris is a very promising young arm.  If he can remain healthy and continue to improve, his stuff and composure definitely look like that of a future ace.  He should be very fun to watch over the next few years.