An update on the 2009 Astros Prediction Project
by DyingQuail
on Jan 9, 2009 7:51 PM CST
11 comments
**UPDATE** The outs and IP are all accounted for and the PA have been adjusted, per this thread at BtB.
I went through the spreadsheet again today and updated the offense to reflect the wOBA as predicted by the CHONE system. I also added Clay Hensley into the starting rotation and have him down for 85 IP as a starter. As it stands, the number crunch spat out an 83.2 win team, which seems very, very optimistic.
However, I have yet to fill out the pinch hitting columns, which I need to do because we're about 300 outs shy of a full season's worth of offense and about 100 IP short on relievers. I imagine the negative contribution of pinch hitters will bring us back down to earth a titch. Really, I need help in the form of suggestions, predictions, revisions, additions, etc.
To make the whole process easier for everyone to interact with, I've published the spreadsheet using Edit Grid. Below is a read only version, but if you click the title of the sheet, you'll be given access to an editable copy. It's password protected with the password: CFB
Please feel free to make changes, but please make a note of the revision so we can keep track of the changes. I'll retain a copy of the unedited spreadsheet as a reference.
Enjoy:
Here's a pretty sweet chart that crunches the data for you relatively succinctly:
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The WAR for the Relievers does not add up to 3.9. It adds up to 4.1.
So the total from the pitchers should be 15.2
And maybe this is just me not knowing what I am talking about, but the hitter’s WAR also don’t add up to .2 – they add up to 4.1 (if I add each number down the line- and truthfully, I don’t know if that’s what you’re supposed to be doing.) And they seem low, individually.. Berkman a .6?
Where does the hitters’ total WAR of 16.2 come from then?
by entropic soul on
Jan 9, 2009 12:32 AM CST
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The WAR totals are just rendering everything after the right of the decimal point
I can’t make the spreadsheet upload right, so my apologies.
You’re correct about the relievers not adding up to 4.1 and I don’t know why that is either. I’ll look at in the morning with a fresh set of eyes and more patience than I have now. Thanks for catching that, I would have never thought to double check it.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Jan 9, 2009 1:56 AM CST
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Why is the whole number digit not showing up? That's weird.
It’s fine on my version…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jan 9, 2009 9:31 AM CST
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It's fine in Excel
But once it gets uploaded to Edit Grid, it just shows everything to the right of the decimal…
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Jan 9, 2009 10:24 AM CST
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It's an issue with the way EditGrid handles the custom number format ".0"
Everything should be fine with the new version. I’m assuming you’ll take charge of the Astros for our community project? (See today’s post at BtB.)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jan 14, 2009 11:30 AM CST
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Nothing about playing time? Projected wOBA or ERA? Number of IP?
Did I leave a player out who should be in? Who do you think will be our primary PH’s?
Anybody???
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Jan 9, 2009 10:40 AM CST
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I have to admit that I had trouble figuring out how the excel file formulas worked....
and rather than spending much time on it, I set it aside. First, I’ll point out that you left Jason Michael off. I think the bulk of the pinch hitting PHs will be Michael and Erstad, with Erstad getting slightly more since he is LH. Blum and Boone will get the next most PH appearances. The back up catchers and utility infielder (Sutton?) are next and a few spread across the whole team. I might split 60% of the PH plate appearances between Erstad and Michael and 25% between Blum and Boone, with maybe another 10% to Towles/Quintero.
Second, I would make the same comments as before. Matsui shouldn’t be a negative on fielding, given his career defensive metrics at 2d base. The Chone projection for 2009 shows Matsui at +1. I would also project Pence as a negative on base running.
What is the column “hit” and how does it relate to OBA? I had difficulty tracing the formulas when I downloaded the file.
by clack on
Jan 9, 2009 12:17 PM CST
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It's probably not a big deal...
but I would have given PA’s to Blum at 3d than Boone, based on the idea that he is the LH part of the platoon. However, the differential between the players isn’t so great that 50 plate appearances shifted between them makes much difference. Also you need to give Michaels some starts in the outfield. I think he will play all three OF positions. I would eliminate Abercrombie and split his CF and LF PAs between Erstad and Michaels. Erstad’s RF PAs should be split with Michaels.
by clack on
Jan 9, 2009 12:24 PM CST
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Thank you
“Hits” is converting wOBA to runs and then to wins I believe (the final divided by 10 term). It’s whatever the hitters wOBA is, minus the league average, readjusted out of the linear weights (the 1.15 term) and then adjusted for a per 700 PA.
Sky might be a little more clear on it, but I’m pretty sure that what’s going in “Hits.”
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on
Jan 9, 2009 12:38 PM CST
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Yes...
Hit is wins-above average based on hitting (mostly, maybe SB/CS, too).
wOBA isn’t OBP, although it’s on the same scale. wOBA is a measure of overall offensively value, sort of like OPS, but more accurate. It stands for weighted on-base average, meaning batting events are weighted according to their run-producing effectiveness. It’s linear weights (if you’ve heard of that) converted into a rate stat. Also like BPro’s equivalent average (EqA).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jan 9, 2009 7:07 PM CST
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Current Series
3 game series vs Giants @ AT&T Park
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Houston Astros
Friday, Jul 3, 2009, 9:15 PM CDT Felipe Paulino vs Ryan Sadowski Mostly clear. Game time temperature around 65. |
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| Sat 07/04 | 3:05 PM CDT | |
| Sun 07/05 | 3:05 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
43 | 38 | .530 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
42 | 38 | .525 | 0.5 | Lost 3 |
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Chicago
|
39 | 38 | .506 | 2 | Won 3 |
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Cincinnati
|
39 | 38 | .506 | 2 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
38 | 39 | .493 | 3 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 43 | .455 | 6 | Lost 2 |
(updated 7.3.2009 at 5:19 PM CDT)
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