Baseball America's Projected 2012 lineup for the Astros
by HighLeveragePerformer on Jan 29, 2009 1:26 PM CST
5 comments
The article is a couple weeks old, and the content is pretty standard:
- our farm system is terrible
- maybe Ed Wade/Bobby Heck are turning it around
- Drayton McLane is cheap in a lot of ways
What I found to be interesting, is that they project each team's lineup in 2012, based on current contract commitments and minor league players advancement to the big league club. I included each player's age during the 2012 season, and for the current Astros I included their PECOTA projection for that year.
Catcher: Jason Castro, 25
First Base: Lance Berkman, 36 (.270/.370/.475)
Second Base: Drew Sutton, 29
Third Base: Chris Johnson, 28
Shortstop: Tommy Manzella, 29
Left Field: Carlos Lee, 36 (.276/.330/.456)
Center Field: Michael Bourn, 29 (.260/.342/.383)
Right Field: Hunter Pence, 29 (.292/.358/.518)
No. 1 Starter: Roy Oswalt, 34 (153.7 IP, 4.31 ERA)
No. 2 Starter: Bud Norris, 27
No. 3 Starter: Ross Seaton, 23
No. 4 Starter: Jordan Lyles, 21
No. 5 Starter: Wandy Rodriguez, 33 (87.3, 5.02 ERA)
Closer: Jose Valverde, 32 (32 SV, 3.44 ERA)
A few things to note:
Roy's contract runs through 2011, but there is a club option for 2012. He hasn't expressed a great deal of willingness to pitch longer than his current contract. Lance Berkman will be a year past the end of his current contract, I don't know about his willingness to play beyond it. Unless of course he's on track to reach 500 HRs or some such milestone...
Jose Valverde will probably not be around in 2012, I can't see keeping him for three more years after this one..
What shocks me is the youth of Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton (pictured left). The last time the Astros had a starter as young as 23 was when Roy was a rookie in 2001.
The rest of our young guys will all be in their primes, and Castro will just be entering his. The troubling thing is, and isn't there always something troubling with this group, is that Sutton, Manzella, and Johnson will all be reaching their peak years in 2012. After that, they enter their 30s and will most likely see diminishing returns. Such is the plight of the weakest farm system in MLB, I suppose....
Hunter Pence stands to see his most successful year as a major leaguer in 2012, and Michael Bourn will see his OBP rise to its highest mark, so says PECOTA....
Looks like JR Towles will be relagated to a backup (at best). Brad James is left out of the equation, along with Sergio Perez....What about Wesley Wright as a closer candidate? Felipe Paulino willalready be 29 in 2012, what to do with him, if he's even around at that point? Brian Bogusevic, I would assume is a potential fourth outfielder at that point, which is how many project him currently.
How do I know that Drayton doesn't spend money wisely (or at all) on draft picks? The biggest signing bonus ever in franchise history was offered to....Chris Burke. High draft pick or not...he's Chris Burke!
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I’ve thought of most of our offseason acquisitions this year as placeholders for some of the people named in this article. I expect that the next two seasons we will see 5 of the 7 minor leaguers listed above get their opportunity to play: Sutton, Norris, and Manzella maybe in 2009, Castro and Johnson in 2010. I expect Lyles and Seaton will take a while to get up here. As much as I like Wandy, I don’t really see him maintaining effectiveness all the way through 2012, and it doesn’t appear that PECOTA does either, since they’re only giving him 83 innings.
Also I think that the absence of James, Perez, and Pualino on this list is simply because the list doesn’t include a full bullpen, just the closer. Of the three, my guess is that Paulino would be one most likely to make a lasting contribution, but it’s unclear at this point.
I do find it interesting that they picked Bourn over Bogusevic. While I don’t want to make any judgments about Bogey yet (he’s still only got something like 200 professional AB if you include the AFL), a lot of people still see him as a legit challenger for the CF spot.
by AstroAndy on Jan 29, 2009 6:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I really put any faith in the PECOTA pitching projections
They’re just waaaaaaaay too pessimistic and horribly skewed by a season with limited innings due to injury or something. As Will Carrol was put it, PECOTA doesn’t know why pitchers only pitched X innings, but it has to use that known value to project playing time. So for a pitcher with limited playing time, PECOTA isn’t very good at projecting young pitchers, or pitchers who just came through their injury nexus.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by DyingQuail on Jan 29, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball America's projected future lineups are fairly meaningless...
just for conversation, I guess. But I’m disappointed that Bogusevic isn’t projected to be in the lineup.
by clack on Jan 29, 2009 6:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just for grins
Back in 2007 (the first year they did the 3-year projected lineup), they projected the following as our 2010 lineup:
Catcher J.R. Towles
First Base Lance Berkman
Second Base Chris Burke
Third Base Morgan Ensberg
Shortstop Adam Everett
Left Field Carlos Lee
Center Field Hunter Pence [Center Field!]
Right Field Luke Scott
No. 1 Starter Roy Oswalt
No. 2 Starter Troy Patton
No. 3 Starter Jason Jennings [HA!]
No. 4 Starter Fernando Nieve
No. 5 Starter Matt Albers
Closer Brad Lidge
by AstroAndy on Jan 29, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
nice
Are we any worse off today than we were two years ago…looking at that lineup, I can’t say that we are. Burke, Ensberg and Everett are basically non-entities. Luke Scott will be an upgrade over Bourn and Lidge may be an upgrade over Valverde. Patton, Jennings, Nieve and Albers aren’t any better than what we’ll have next year in our rotation. Then again, we haven’t gotten much better either…
by HighLeveragePerformer on Jan 29, 2009 8:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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THE CRAWFISH BOXES GETS SOCIAL
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.9.2010 at 11:43 PM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
