Hunter Pence is the best RF arm
Pence save 7.7 runs above average, he would save 9.2 runs above average every 200 plays.
Overall, Pence threw out almost five more runners than expected and "held" about eight extra runners. Pence chose the right situations to throw out runners — all those kills at home plate boosted his run total significantly. In any case, I've got a new nickname for the big Houston right fielder with the high-powered arm: "Big Game" Hunter Pence.
Bourn is slightly above CF average, and Lee is .....far below average
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I saw that, and I was about to post it too.
Congratulations to Pence. The funny thing is that nobody who watches him would think “high powered arm.” But the key is “get the job done.” So, give him credit for working on his craft, even if he doesn’t have the best throwing ability.
By the way, this is a very sophisiticated analysis of outfield results, which accounts for holds as well as kills.
Lee and Bourn.
Additionally:
Notice that Bourn is just over 1 run above average and Lee is something like 8 runs below average. So Lee and Pence kind of offset each other’s throwing.
Doesn't Seem Very Valid
Seems to me this measures outfielder speed more than arm strength. Of course Pence holds more runners. He gets to the ball quicker than most right fielders. And if the 3rd base coach is waiving the runner regardless, Pence is going to record a “kill” even with a bad throw because he has the advantage of getting to the ball so quickly. I’d wager that happens quite often, as many coaches probably waive runners based on where the ball is hit. Of course Soriano is going to throw out more runners than Lee, he’s probablyy getting to the ball a full second faster. Its tough to say, as the opportunities are too small in each category to be statistically significant, but it seems to me that this site is trying to measure arm strength, and actually measuring speed.
by seanbergmanrules on Jan 23, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions
I agree.
I’ve always thought Lee to have a good arm. That’s my opinion from watching him play a lot. His problem is just getting to the ball.
by entropic soul on Jan 23, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
Lee definitely has a great arm
And I concur with the OF arm critique, but it’s a difficult skill to measure.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 23, 2009 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
Lee used to play third in the minors
So one would expect him to have a pretty good arm. And I agree that his problem is just that he’s very slow.
I think the same is true of Dunn. Arizona had him play RF, and he certainly has the arm for it. But he’s extraordinarily slow and isn’t very sure-handed.
Who cares if it is arm or speed which causes the results?
The objective is to get the job done…which means holding runners, and throwing out runners who want to take an extra base. I could care less if a player does it by getting to the ball more quickly or using raw arm strength. In fact, I respect Pence more, because he gets the job done without having a great arm or great throwing motion. I am sure that it requires a lot of work on his part to accomplish this…i.e., becoming more efficient in his steps and movement and creating the momentum for a quick throw. Dunn is a great example, because we know he had a quarterback’s arm. But what good is it, if he moves too poorly to get the job done as well as Pence?
As for Soriano, I have no doubt that he is a great threat to the running game in LF. I saw him throw out whole passels of Astros’ in his first year, when they were testing him. Now he stays on top of the ratings for LF because teams finally decided that they have to hold the runner. The scouting type evaluations of Soriano indicates that he combines a second baseman’s accuracy with good quickness and positioning for his throws.
Pence and movement
don’t always go together:
You’re right in that it doesn’t matter how Pence gets the ball to the base – all that matters is that it gets there quickly and accurately. It’s the same as hitting: we shouldn’t care about Pence’s odd hitting style, so long as he actually hits (unlike his throwing motion, this is still a problem. But it’s not one caused by his batting stance).
The issue is about what the article says it analyzes.
Not really the results.
by entropic soul on Jan 23, 2009 6:43 PM CST up reply actions
I consider quickness in getting to the ball and setting up...
part of the “throwing arm” they are measuring. If an outfielder doesn’t have a plus arm, coaches will try to teach him to compensate by getting to the ball quickly, wasting less motion, and getting in better position to come up throwing. So to me, that is all part of the same “tool.” Now if you want to measure arm strength, this analysis doesn’t do it. I think the article may be misleading in that sense by referring to “big arm” and the like.
Pence and movement?
That makes me wonder if it has been determined who was in the hot tub last year when he ran through a glass door.
I've got plenty of doubts about defensive metrics
But this article seems more to be a quick review of what happened than anything else.
Maybe its a good demonstration of how observations can sometimes give bias. Hunter is sort of a gangly mess of energy. When things go wrong, it seems like there should be a cloud of dust like in a cartoon.
Soriano looks silly bunny hopping or jumping for balls at the wrong time or looking like a frightened deer when he gets near the wall. But his sidearm delivery still produces a strong throw, he releases quickly and he is accurate. Wrigley isn’t big and the bottom line is he nails guys.
Correctly and accurately hitting the cut off man....
is an important element of outfield throwing. This is as much a mental factor, as it is physical. It bothers me that some strong armed outfielders consistently overthrow the cut off man, as if they are keen to show off their arm. This can cost a lot in terms of advanced bases. Throwing home when it is a lost cause can allow the remaining on base runners to advance, for instance.

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