The Astros probability in 2009
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 9:17 AM CST
10 comments
So yesterday I made a rather shameful mistake in trying to report the probability that the Astros WAR project would come to fruition. Well, I finally corrected my mistake and then cranked out a nifty little chart. What follows is a graph depicting the Astros probability of winning (x) number of games. The number of games is graphed along the X-axis (the horizontal one, for HLP) and the probability of winning that many games, is found along the Y-axis (the vertical one, again for HLP).
Here are the results:
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wait
there’s an x AND a y axis?? well that explains a lot..
by Evan Hochschild on Jan 12, 2009 12:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It would have made Calculus easier
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you were giving me too much credit..
assuming that I knew the meaning of vertical and horizontal
by Evan Hochschild on Jan 12, 2009 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
HAHAHA
Certainly explains a lot.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 12:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lefty-righty and upy-downy
got me through many a freshman economics class…
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 12, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
If there’s some child’s math education program with those exact terms?
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm lost
How can you have a 100% probability for multiple outcomes? The graph is telling me there’s a 100% chance we win 50 games and a 100% chance we win 60 games. Shouldn’t you show us more of the x-axis to the left, seeing how 100% occurs at the boundary? What’s the chances of winning < 50 games? And what does HLP stand for?
by goingforthecorner on Jan 12, 2009 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That's saying
That’s there’s a 100% from everywhere from 1-60 games are won, given our projected win percentage of 51-ish%. It’s the results of various inquests of a binomial distribution with the winning percentage from the WAR project.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
HLP = HighLeveragePerformer
It doesn’t mean anything stat-wise or whatever.. he was just poking fun at another blogger.
by entropic soul on Jan 12, 2009 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I missed that
Yeah, I was just giving HLP crap because we I carried him, kicking and screaming, on my back through Cal I.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 12, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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