Projected 2009 Standings: Which teams will do better, which will do worse?
by Evan Hochschild on Jan 10, 2009 4:18 PM CST
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Pretty self explanatory- give these standings a look and comment on who will fail to meet the win expectations or will surpass their projected total.If you feel up to it, explain yourself as well.
The Astros 83 win total that we saw from DQ's post was more generous than the MARCEL influenced number of 79. True, the more conservative win totals of that this projection spat out are pretty much across the board, but teams like the Cards and Cubs declined by only one win. The Brewers on the other hand went from a respectable 84 wins to only 74. The loss of CC Sabathia and most likely Ben Sheets are atop the reasons of why the Brewers should decline this season. Trevor Hoffman actually projects fairly well this year for the Brew Crew though- 25 saves, 3.74 ERA, with 43 strikeouts in 53 innings of work. He could earn up to $7.5 million in 2009 though, probably a little too steep a price for a closer. If Ben Sheets can match innings total that has been predicted for him (173), the Brewers may really regret not signing him.
Tom Tango's MARCEL projections for 2009 can be found here.
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That blog's projection of 83 wins used Hardball Times player projections.
It would be interesting to see the differences for individual Astros’ players between Marcel and HT’s projections. I’m not as familiar with HT’s projections, because I think you have to buy the HT Annual to get them. However, as a general matter, Marcel will produce significant variances from the other projection methods for younger players who have less ML experience. That is because the non-Marcel methods, like Chone, HT, ZIPS, Bill James, etc., will incoroporate some minor league performance into their model for those players. So, undoubtedly guys like Bourn and Towles are likely to fair worse under Marcel.
by clack on Jan 10, 2009 4:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You can see the results from both Marcel and HT projections on one page here.
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/index
The Saturday version has Marcel and the Friday version below it uses HT projections.
by clack on Jan 10, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Marcel isn't going to much good for the Astros
Just because we’re going to be relying on some younger guys this year and the projection system’s simplicity completely understates their valuable minor league info. Something similar to Marcel, but more in depth in the ways that we need them to be, is Brian Cartwright’s (of Stat Speak) Oliver projections. All the younger guys (Bourn, Towles, and Pence) fair pretty well under that system (maybe not Bourn).
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 10, 2009 5:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I take that back
Bourn receives a minor tick in wOBA, Towles a major, and Pence a slight regression. I was trying to from memory—never a good idea.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 10, 2009 5:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Other interesting results of changing projection systems...
The A’s overtake the Angels (with Marcel) as AL West champion. The Reds move into 3d place in the NL Central. Interestingly, the Rockies continue to win the NL West.
Obviously, these projections all will change as teams sign the many free agents who remain on the market. The Angels won’t be expected to have a losing record, for instance, if they add some decent free agents to replace their losses. The Brewers will move up quite a bit if they sign a good free agent pitcher.
by clack on Jan 10, 2009 4:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Now that I look at it...I can't understand the big change in the Brewers' W/L record.
With Marcel, the Brewers decline almost 10 games. That seems like a big change just from changing projection methods. I can see a team like the Astros varying by 4 games, due to projection method, but 10 games seems like a big number. I don’t know how Marcel is used in the simulation model (just as a rate stat or for counting stats too?). But Marcel is very conservative in projecting counting stats, probably due to lower playing time projections. Someone pointed out at Fangraphs that Marcel projects only 1 player to surpass 32 HRs, even though 19 players did so last year.
by clack on Jan 10, 2009 5:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the interesting thing
Is that even with our losses this off-season, we retain the true talent level of 2008 under the most pessimistic system (Marcel) and are expected to be better in the more forgiving systems.
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 10, 2009 5:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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