I think I had a previous calculation which seemed to indicate that the loss of Wigginton was more or less offset by increases in performance from other players who had under performing offensive years last season. My view has been that Wade put together what is basically a .500-ish team, and the off season hasn’t done much to change things. A team like that can end up a few games on the winning side (like last year) or a few games on the losing side, depending on the breaks. Given the fact that the Astros are depending on some older players who could fall off a cliff at any time, I suspect that the probablility weighs more on the down side. The frustrating part is that your results would indicate that the Astros could gain a lot (in terms of possibility of contending) if McLane would raise the payroll for one or two impact players.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/extremely_early_projected_standings

Replacement Level Yankees web site runs Diamondmind type simulations. In an early 2009 simulation they show the Astros and Brewers essentially tied for 3d place in the NL Central with a 83-79 record, behind the Cards with 85 wins and the Cubs with 91 wins.

I admire your optimism. Twenty years of Houston sports has knocked that out of me.

But 83 wins sounds about right. If they get lucky, they have a shot at the playoffs. If they don’t, they might finish below .500. They’re a mediocre team.